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UPSC MainsPolitical Science (Optional)International RelationsPractice question

Global Order Shifts and Nuclear Disarmament Regimes

The changing global order and ongoing regional conflicts, with the global powers taking sides, have jeopardized the progress made towards disarmament in the past. Comment.

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How to approach

Begin by contextualising how the shifting multipolar order and great-power rivalries are impacting disarmament, citing recent data. In the body, systematically discuss institutional breakdown of treaties, security dilemma dynamics, nuclear modernisation, and emerging military technologies. Conclude with a forward-looking proposal for a revitalised multilateral arms control architecture.

Model answer

302 words

Introduction

The transition towards a complex multipolar global order, characterised by intensifying great-power rivalry and proxy regional conflicts, has severely paralysed the international disarmament architecture. Reflecting this structural shift, the SIPRI Yearbook 2024 reported a historic peak in global military expenditure of $2.7 trillion, highlighting a sharp departure from post-Cold War peace dividends.

How the Changing Order and Regional Conflicts Jeopardize Disarmament

  • Institutional Decay of Bilateral Regimes: The core arms control architecture painstakingly negotiated between superpowers is collapsing. The unilateral withdrawals from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and Open Skies Treaty, compounded by Russia's 2023 suspension of its participation in the New START treaty, signal an almost complete breakdown of verifiable strategic arms control.
  • Intensification of the Structural Security Dilemma: Through the lens of Kenneth Waltz's structural realism, great powers taking sides in conflicts—such as NATO's backing of Ukraine versus the deepening Russia-China strategic axis—escalates mutual insecurity in an anarchic international system. Consequently, states are forced to prioritise 'self-help'. For instance, Japan is doubling its defence budget to counter regional threats, altering its long-standing pacifist orientation despite remaining covered by the US nuclear umbrella.
  • Nuclear Modernisation Over Reduction: Rather than capping or reducing arsenals, nuclear-armed states are actively pursuing qualitative and quantitative upgrades. SIPRI reports an ongoing increase in operational nuclear warheads globally, marked notably by China rapidly expanding its nuclear stockpile to approximately 500 warheads.
  • Unregulated Disruptive and Emerging Technologies: The proliferation of hypersonic glide systems, artificial intelligence-enabled Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), and counter-space capabilities largely eludes existing international arms control treaties, triggering an unchecked, multi-domain arms race.

Conclusion

Reviving global disarmament requires transcending obsolete Cold War-era bilateral paradigms and establishing a comprehensive 'Strategic Stability 2.0' framework. Modern arms control must become genuinely multilateral, account for emerging cyber, space, and AI warfare domains, and reconstruct baseline geopolitical trust among major powers.

Key facts to remember

statistic

Total global military spending reached an all-time record of $2.7 trillion according to comprehensive assessments.

— SIPRI Yearbook 2024
definition
Security Dilemma (Structural Realism)

A condition in international relations where actions taken by a state to enhance its own security inadvertently lead other states to feel less secure, prompting counter-measures and an escalatory arms race.

example
Suspension of New START

In 2023, Russia suspended its participation in the New START treaty, removing one of the last major bilateral inspection and limitation mechanisms on deployed strategic nuclear warheads between the US and Russia.

Frequently asked questions

Why are traditional arms-control frameworks failing in the current era?

Traditional treaties were primarily bilateral arrangements between the US and USSR/Russia. Today's multipolar environment, involving the rise of China's nuclear capability and unmonitored technologies like hypersonic missiles and cyber weapons, renders older bilateral verification structures inadequate.

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