UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I201120 Marks200 Words
Q6.

Monetarists are of the view that only money does and Keynesians believe that money does not matter.' What is your reasoning of the extreme views held by the monetarists and the Keynesians?

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of the core tenets of Monetarism and Keynesian economics. The approach should involve first defining both schools of thought, then dissecting the reasons behind their seemingly extreme positions. Focus on the differing assumptions about the stability of the private sector, the role of expectations, and the effectiveness of monetary versus fiscal policy. Structure the answer by first outlining Keynesian views, then Monetarist counterarguments, and finally, a balanced perspective acknowledging the validity in both approaches.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The debate between Monetarists and Keynesians represents a fundamental divergence in macroeconomic thought. Keynesian economics, born out of the Great Depression, emphasizes the role of aggregate demand in driving economic activity and advocates for active government intervention, particularly fiscal policy, to stabilize the economy. Conversely, Monetarism, gaining prominence in the mid-20th century, championed the primacy of money supply in influencing nominal GDP and advocated for limited government intervention, focusing primarily on controlling inflation through monetary policy. The statement "Monetarists are of the view that only money does and Keynesians believe that money does not matter" is a simplification, but highlights the core difference in their perspectives on the efficacy of monetary policy.

Keynesian Perspective: The Primacy of Aggregate Demand

Keynesians, as articulated in John Maynard Keynes’s The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), believe that the economy can be stuck in a prolonged period of low demand and high unemployment. They argue that the private sector is inherently unstable due to ‘animal spirits’ – psychological factors influencing investment decisions – and that aggregate demand can fall short of aggregate supply, leading to recessionary gaps.

  • Role of Money: Keynesians don’t dismiss money entirely, but view it as one factor influencing aggregate demand. They emphasize the ‘liquidity preference’ – the desire to hold money rather than invest – which can make monetary policy less effective, especially during a liquidity trap (when interest rates are near zero).
  • Fiscal Policy: Keynesians prioritize fiscal policy (government spending and taxation) as a more direct and potent tool for stimulating demand. Multiplier effect suggests that an initial increase in government spending can lead to a larger increase in national income.
  • Sticky Prices & Wages: Keynesians assume that prices and wages are ‘sticky’ – they don’t adjust quickly to changes in demand, hindering the self-correcting mechanisms of the market.

Monetarist Counterarguments: The Dominance of Money Supply

Monetarists, led by Milton Friedman, challenged the Keynesian orthodoxy. They argued that the Great Depression wasn’t caused by a failure of aggregate demand, but by a contraction of the money supply due to policy errors by the Federal Reserve.

  • Quantity Theory of Money: Monetarists adhere to a modified version of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ, where M=Money Supply, V=Velocity of Money, P=Price Level, Q=Real Output). They believe that changes in the money supply are the primary determinant of nominal GDP (PQ), and that velocity (V) is relatively stable.
  • Stable Private Sector: Monetarists assume that the private sector is inherently stable and that fluctuations in economic activity are primarily caused by erratic monetary policy.
  • Long-Run Neutrality of Money: They believe that money is neutral in the long run – changes in the money supply only affect nominal variables (like prices) and not real variables (like output and employment).
  • Policy Recommendations: Monetarists advocate for a ‘money supply rule’ – a fixed and predictable growth rate of the money supply – to maintain price stability and minimize economic fluctuations.

Reconciling the Views: A Modern Synthesis

The extreme views of both schools have been tempered over time. Modern macroeconomic thought incorporates elements from both Keynesian and Monetarist perspectives.

Keynesian Monetarist
Short-run focus on demand management Long-run focus on price stability
Active fiscal policy Rules-based monetary policy
Sticky prices and wages Flexible prices and wages
Potential for prolonged recessions Self-correcting market mechanisms

The effectiveness of monetary policy depends on various factors, including the state of the economy, expectations, and the credibility of the central bank. Similarly, fiscal policy can be effective in certain circumstances, but it can also lead to crowding out and debt accumulation.

Conclusion

The debate between Monetarists and Keynesians, while often presented as opposing extremes, has been crucial in shaping modern macroeconomic policy. While Keynesians highlight the importance of managing aggregate demand, particularly during recessions, Monetarists emphasize the long-run importance of price stability and the dangers of discretionary monetary policy. A pragmatic approach recognizes the strengths and limitations of both perspectives, advocating for a flexible policy framework that combines elements of both demand-side and supply-side economics. The optimal policy mix will vary depending on the specific economic context and the prevailing challenges.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Liquidity Trap
A situation in which prevailing interest rates are very low and further monetary stimulus through lowering interest rates becomes ineffective because people prefer to hold cash rather than invest in bonds or other interest-bearing assets.
Multiplier Effect
The multiplier effect refers to the magnified impact of an initial change in spending (e.g., government spending) on overall economic activity. It arises because the initial spending creates income for others, who then spend a portion of that income, and so on.

Key Statistics

In 2008, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to near zero in response to the financial crisis, illustrating a liquidity trap scenario.

Source: Federal Reserve Historical Data (as of knowledge cutoff 2023)

India's fiscal multiplier is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.5, depending on the type of government spending and the state of the economy. (IMF Working Paper, 2020)

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Examples

The Great Depression

The severe contraction of the money supply during the Great Depression (1929-1939) is often cited by Monetarists as evidence of the importance of monetary policy in stabilizing the economy. The Federal Reserve’s inaction exacerbated the economic downturn.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can monetary policy be effective even when interest rates are near zero?

Yes, through unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing (QE), where central banks purchase assets to increase the money supply and lower long-term interest rates. However, the effectiveness of QE is debated.

Topics Covered

EconomyMacroeconomicsMonetary PolicyFiscal PolicyEconomic Schools of Thought