Model Answer
0 min readIntroduction
Somalia has endured decades of conflict, marked by state collapse, clan warfare, and the rise of extremist groups like al-Shabab. The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), alongside the Somali National Army, successfully drove al-Shabab out of Mogadishu in 2011. This withdrawal was initially hailed as a turning point, offering a chance to rebuild the nation. However, the question of whether this withdrawal truly gave peace a ‘real chance’ is complex. While it removed a direct threat to the capital, it also created a new set of challenges, and al-Shabab continues to pose a significant threat to Somalia’s stability. This answer will assess the extent to which the withdrawal facilitated peace, considering both the gains and the persistent obstacles.
Initial Impact and Gains (2011-2015)
The 2011 withdrawal of al-Shabab from Mogadishu marked a significant shift. The immediate effect was a reduction in large-scale, direct attacks within the city, allowing for a degree of normalcy to return. This facilitated the establishment of a new, internationally-recognized government led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in 2012 – the first such government in over two decades. AMISOM’s presence was crucial in maintaining security during this transition. Furthermore, the withdrawal allowed for increased humanitarian access, enabling aid organizations to reach populations previously inaccessible due to al-Shabab’s control.
The Security Vacuum and Resurgence of Al-Shabab
However, the withdrawal didn’t eliminate al-Shabab; it merely shifted its tactics. The group retreated to rural areas and established a network of cells, launching asymmetric attacks – bombings, ambushes, and suicide missions – against government institutions, AMISOM forces, and civilian targets. The security vacuum created by al-Shabab’s departure was not fully filled by the Somali National Army, which remained weak and poorly equipped. This allowed al-Shabab to maintain a significant presence and continue to exert influence, particularly in southern and central Somalia. The group also exploited clan rivalries and grievances to recruit fighters and maintain support.
Role of International Actors and Challenges to Peacebuilding
International involvement has been critical, but also complex. AMISOM, later transitioned to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), provided crucial military support. However, the mission faced challenges related to funding, troop morale, and allegations of human rights abuses. The United States has provided significant financial and military assistance to the Somali government, focusing on counter-terrorism efforts. However, reliance on external actors has also created a dependency that hinders the development of sustainable Somali-led security institutions. Furthermore, political infighting within the Somali government and corruption have undermined peacebuilding efforts.
Socio-Economic Factors and the Persistence of Instability
Underlying the security challenges are deep-rooted socio-economic issues. Somalia faces high levels of poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity. Climate change, particularly recurring droughts, exacerbates these problems and contributes to displacement and instability. Al-Shabab exploits these conditions by providing basic services and appealing to marginalized communities. Addressing these socio-economic factors is crucial for long-term peace, but requires sustained investment and effective governance.
Recent Developments (2022-2024)
In 2022-2024, the Somali government, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, launched a renewed offensive against al-Shabab, supported by ATMIS and US airstrikes. This offensive has achieved some successes, liberating territory and disrupting al-Shabab’s operations. However, the group remains resilient and continues to pose a significant threat. The withdrawal of ATMIS troops, completed in December 2024, presents a new challenge, raising concerns about the Somali security forces’ ability to maintain security without external support.
| Phase | Key Developments | Impact on Peace |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-2015 | Al-Shabab withdrawal from Mogadishu, establishment of new government, increased humanitarian access | Initial gains in security and governance, but al-Shabab remained a threat in rural areas |
| 2015-2022 | Al-Shabab resurgence, continued attacks, international support through AMISOM | Limited progress towards peace, persistent instability, and humanitarian crises |
| 2022-2024 | Renewed offensive against al-Shabab, ATMIS drawdown | Some territorial gains, but long-term sustainability uncertain, increased pressure on Somali security forces |
Conclusion
While the withdrawal of al-Shabab from Mogadishu in 2011 was a necessary condition for peace, it was not sufficient. It created an opportunity for state-building and humanitarian assistance, but the security vacuum, al-Shabab’s adaptation, and underlying socio-economic challenges have significantly hampered progress. The recent offensive offers a glimmer of hope, but the long-term success of Somalia’s peace process hinges on strengthening Somali security institutions, addressing root causes of instability, and fostering inclusive governance. A truly ‘real chance’ at peace requires a holistic approach that goes beyond military operations and tackles the complex political, economic, and social factors driving conflict.
Answer Length
This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.