UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I201325 Marks
Q9.

Aggregate Supply & New Classical Economics

If workers supply labour on the basis of an expected real wage, how is the aggregate supply of output determined in the economy ? Suppose aggregate demand and supply are below the natural rate of employment and output. Would the New Classical economists advocate any particular policy intervention when the economy is in such a situation ?

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of the New Classical school of thought and its implications for macroeconomic policy. The answer should begin by explaining how aggregate supply is determined when workers base their labor supply decisions on expected real wages. Then, it should analyze the scenario of aggregate demand and supply being below the natural rate of employment and output, and finally, articulate the New Classical economists’ recommended policy response (or lack thereof). The structure will involve defining key concepts, explaining the AS-AD framework, detailing the New Classical perspective, and concluding with a balanced assessment.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The aggregate supply of output in an economy is fundamentally linked to the labor market and the real wage rate workers expect to receive. Unlike Keynesian models that emphasize sticky wages, the New Classical school posits that wages are flexible and adjust rapidly to market conditions. This implies that the aggregate supply curve is largely determined by workers’ expectations about future real wages. When aggregate demand falls short of the economy’s potential, leading to output below the natural rate of employment, the policy prescriptions differ significantly depending on the economic school of thought. New Classical economists, known for their emphasis on rational expectations and market efficiency, generally advocate a limited role for government intervention in such scenarios.

Aggregate Supply and Expected Real Wages

The aggregate supply (AS) curve represents the total quantity of goods and services firms are willing to produce at a given price level. In the New Classical framework, AS is determined by the labor market. Workers supply labor based on their expected real wage – the nominal wage adjusted for anticipated inflation. If workers expect inflation to be high, they will demand higher nominal wages to maintain their purchasing power. Firms, in turn, will adjust prices accordingly. This implies that the short-run AS curve is relatively vertical, meaning that changes in aggregate demand have a limited impact on output.

Determining Aggregate Supply

The aggregate supply can be derived from the microeconomic foundations of firm behavior and labor supply. Firms maximize profits by hiring labor until the marginal revenue product of labor (MRPL) equals the real wage (W/P). Workers, on the other hand, choose their labor supply based on their utility maximization, considering the expected real wage. The intersection of labor demand (derived from MRPL) and labor supply (based on expected real wage) determines the equilibrium employment level. This employment level, combined with the production function, determines the aggregate supply of output.

Scenario: Aggregate Demand Below Natural Rate

When aggregate demand (AD) is below the level consistent with the natural rate of employment (and potential output), the economy experiences a recessionary gap. This means there is excess capacity and unemployment. In a traditional Keynesian framework, this situation calls for expansionary fiscal or monetary policy to boost AD and close the gap. However, New Classical economists view this situation differently.

New Classical Response: Laissez-Faire

New Classical economists argue that any attempt by the government to stimulate AD will be ineffective or even counterproductive. Their reasoning is based on the following:

  • Rational Expectations: Workers and firms are rational and form expectations about future economic conditions based on all available information. If the government attempts to stimulate AD, they will anticipate the resulting inflation and adjust their behavior accordingly.
  • Wage Flexibility: Wages are flexible and adjust quickly to changes in AD. Any increase in AD will primarily lead to higher prices (inflation) rather than increased output.
  • Crowding Out: Expansionary fiscal policy may lead to higher interest rates, crowding out private investment and offsetting the stimulative effect of government spending.

Therefore, New Classical economists advocate a laissez-faire approach – minimal government intervention. They believe that the economy is self-correcting and will eventually return to the natural rate of employment through wage and price adjustments. They argue that the best policy is to maintain a stable monetary policy focused on controlling inflation and avoid discretionary interventions that can distort market signals.

Policy Implications & Limitations

The New Classical prescription has significant policy implications. It suggests that governments should focus on creating a stable macroeconomic environment rather than attempting to fine-tune the economy. However, this approach has been criticized for its assumptions about perfect information, instantaneous wage and price adjustments, and the absence of market imperfections. Real-world economies often exhibit wage stickiness, imperfect information, and other frictions that can prevent rapid self-correction. Furthermore, the assumption of rational expectations is not always realistic, as behavioral economics demonstrates that individuals often exhibit cognitive biases and make irrational decisions.

The 2008 financial crisis highlighted the limitations of the New Classical approach. The crisis demonstrated that even with flexible wages, a severe shock to aggregate demand can lead to prolonged periods of unemployment and economic stagnation. Many economists argue that government intervention, such as fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing, was crucial in mitigating the effects of the crisis.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the New Classical view of aggregate supply, based on expected real wages and rational expectations, leads to a strong preference for limited government intervention in the face of aggregate demand shocks. While their emphasis on long-run stability and the dangers of discretionary policy is valuable, the strict laissez-faire approach may not be optimal in all circumstances, particularly when faced with significant market imperfections or severe economic crises. A pragmatic approach that combines elements of both New Classical and Keynesian thought is often necessary to navigate the complexities of the modern economy.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Natural Rate of Unemployment
The level of unemployment that exists when the economy is operating at its potential output. It includes frictional and structural unemployment, but not cyclical unemployment.
Rational Expectations
The theory that individuals make decisions based on their best possible predictions about the future, using all available information.

Key Statistics

In 2023, the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.9%, considered near the natural rate of unemployment (estimated between 4-5%).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2023

According to the World Bank, global inflation averaged 4.4% in 2022, significantly higher than the average of 2.8% in 2019, demonstrating the impact of supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events.

Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, January 2024

Examples

The Volcker Shock

Paul Volcker, as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the late 1970s and early 1980s, implemented a contractionary monetary policy to combat high inflation, even at the cost of a recession. This is an example of a New Classical-inspired policy focused on price stability, despite short-term economic pain.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between the New Classical and Keynesian views on the role of government?

Keynesians advocate for active government intervention to stabilize the economy, particularly during recessions, while New Classical economists favor minimal intervention, believing that markets are self-correcting and government intervention can be counterproductive.

Topics Covered

EconomicsMacroeconomicsAggregate SupplyEconomic PolicyLabor Economics