UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I201325 Marks
Q12.

Sterilization & Money Supply Effects

After 2003 till 2008 many emerging economies including India received huge capital inflows. To contain the effect of these flows the central bank sterilized the inflows. What is sterilization and how does it affect the supply of money in the economy ?

How to Approach

This question requires a detailed understanding of balance of payments, capital inflows, and the monetary policy tool of sterilization. The answer should define sterilization, explain the mechanism through which it affects the money supply, and discuss the rationale behind its use. Structure the answer by first defining sterilization, then explaining the process with a diagram or step-by-step explanation, followed by its impact on the money supply, and finally, potential limitations or consequences. Focus on the Indian context post-2003.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The period between 2003 and 2008 witnessed a surge in capital inflows into several emerging economies, including India, driven by global liquidity and favorable economic conditions. These inflows, while beneficial for economic growth, posed challenges to macroeconomic stability, particularly through potential inflationary pressures and exchange rate appreciation. To mitigate these effects, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) employed a monetary policy tool known as ‘sterilization’. Sterilization involves offsetting the impact of foreign exchange inflows on the domestic money supply, thereby maintaining control over monetary conditions. This answer will delve into the concept of sterilization and its effects on the money supply in the Indian context.

Understanding Sterilization

Sterilization, in the context of monetary policy, refers to actions undertaken by a central bank to neutralize the effect of balance of payments surpluses (capital inflows) on the domestic money supply. When a central bank receives foreign currency due to inflows, it typically adds to its foreign exchange reserves. Without sterilization, this would increase the monetary base and potentially lead to inflation. Sterilization aims to prevent this expansionary effect.

The Sterilization Process

The process typically unfolds as follows:

  1. Capital Inflow: Foreign investors purchase domestic assets (e.g., bonds, stocks), leading to an inflow of foreign currency.
  2. Reserve Accumulation: The central bank purchases this foreign currency to prevent appreciation of the domestic currency, adding to its foreign exchange reserves.
  3. Sterilization: Simultaneously, the central bank sells government securities (treasury bills, bonds) in the open market to domestic investors.
  4. Money Supply Control: The sale of government securities absorbs liquidity from the banking system, offsetting the increase in the monetary base caused by the reserve accumulation.

This can be visualized as follows:

Action Impact on Monetary Base Impact on Money Supply
Foreign Exchange Inflow & Reserve Accumulation Increase Potential Increase
Sale of Government Securities Decrease Decrease
Net Effect (Sterilization) Neutral Neutral/Controlled

Impact on the Money Supply

Without sterilization, an increase in foreign exchange reserves would lead to an expansion of the monetary base (currency in circulation + commercial banks’ reserves with the central bank). This expansion, through the money multiplier effect, would increase the overall money supply (M1, M2, M3), potentially fueling inflation and asset bubbles.

Sterilization effectively neutralizes this effect. By selling government securities, the central bank reduces the amount of money available to commercial banks, offsetting the increase in reserves caused by the foreign exchange inflow. This keeps the money supply under control, allowing the central bank to maintain its inflation targets and exchange rate stability.

Effects on Interest Rates

Sterilization can also influence interest rates. The sale of government securities increases the supply of bonds, potentially lowering their prices and raising their yields (interest rates). This can help to moderate domestic demand and further control inflation. However, sustained sterilization can lead to a buildup of excess reserves in the banking system, potentially reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Sterilization in India (2003-2008)

Between 2003 and 2008, India experienced substantial capital inflows, particularly in the form of Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) in the stock market and External Commercial Borrowings (ECB). The RBI actively sterilized these inflows by selling government securities. This helped to prevent a significant appreciation of the Indian Rupee and contained inflationary pressures. However, the large-scale sterilization also led to a buildup of Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) securities in the banking system, creating challenges for monetary transmission.

The RBI’s sterilization strategy during this period was largely successful in maintaining macroeconomic stability, but it also contributed to a situation where banks had limited capacity to lend, potentially hindering investment and growth. The global financial crisis of 2008 exposed the limitations of relying heavily on sterilization, as the sudden reversal of capital flows put pressure on the Rupee and forced the RBI to reverse its sterilization policy.

Conclusion

Sterilization is a crucial monetary policy tool for managing capital inflows and maintaining macroeconomic stability in emerging economies like India. While effective in controlling the money supply and exchange rates, it can also have unintended consequences, such as a buildup of excess reserves and reduced lending capacity of banks. The experience of India between 2003 and 2008 highlights the need for a balanced approach, combining sterilization with other policy measures to address the challenges posed by volatile capital flows and ensure sustainable economic growth. A reliance solely on sterilization can create vulnerabilities, as demonstrated by the 2008 financial crisis.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Monetary Base
The total amount of a currency that is in general circulation and in the commercial banks’ accounts at the central bank.
Money Multiplier
The money multiplier is the inverse of the reserve requirement ratio. It represents the maximum amount of commercial bank money that can be created by a given amount of central bank money.

Key Statistics

India’s foreign exchange reserves increased from approximately $62 billion in 2003 to over $300 billion in 2008, largely due to capital inflows.

Source: RBI Annual Report (various years)

In 2007, India’s GDP growth rate was 9.3%, partially fueled by capital inflows, which the RBI actively sterilized.

Source: World Bank Data (knowledge cutoff 2023)

Examples

China’s Sterilization Experience

China has been a long-term practitioner of sterilization to manage its large trade surpluses and capital inflows. This has resulted in massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and a complex interplay between domestic monetary policy and external factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the limitations of sterilization?

Sterilization can lead to a buildup of government debt, distort bond markets, and reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by creating excess reserves in the banking system. It can also be costly, as the central bank incurs losses when it sells securities at below-market prices.

Topics Covered

EconomicsFinanceMacroeconomicsExchange Rate PolicyMonetary PolicyCapital Flows