UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I201420 Marks
Q21.

Question 21

“Balanced growth strategy of development in terms of pattern of investment has to be in conformity not only with derived demands but final demands as well.” Argue whether this statement is about avoiding bottlenecks for certain sectors and excess capacities in others or promoting import substitution.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of development economics, particularly the concept of balanced growth. The core argument revolves around the interplay between derived and final demand in shaping investment patterns. The answer should demonstrate an understanding of how misaligned investment can lead to sectoral bottlenecks or overcapacity. It should also address whether the statement leans towards import substitution as a strategy. A structure focusing on defining key terms, explaining the demand dynamics, analyzing the implications of imbalances, and finally, linking it to import substitution will be effective.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The concept of ‘balanced growth’, popularized by Ragnar Nurkse, advocates for simultaneous development of various sectors of the economy to avoid supply-side constraints and demand deficiencies. The statement highlights a crucial aspect of this strategy: investment decisions must consider not only the demand created by other sectors (derived demand) but also the ultimate consumer demand (final demand). In the context of a developing economy like India, where resource allocation is often constrained, understanding this interplay is vital for sustainable and inclusive growth. The question asks us to analyze whether this principle is primarily about avoiding sectoral imbalances or promoting a policy of import substitution.

Understanding Derived and Final Demand

Derived Demand refers to the demand for goods and services that arises from the demand for other goods and services. For example, the demand for steel is derived from the demand for automobiles, construction, and infrastructure. Final Demand, on the other hand, represents the demand for goods and services directly by consumers, government, or for export. A balanced growth strategy necessitates aligning investment in sectors generating derived demand with the sectors experiencing final demand.

Implications of Misaligned Investment

When investment patterns are solely based on derived demand, several issues can arise:

  • Bottlenecks: Over-investment in sectors supplying intermediate goods without corresponding investment in sectors generating final demand can lead to supply bottlenecks. For instance, increased steel production without sufficient demand from the automobile or construction sectors will result in excess capacity and underutilized resources.
  • Excess Capacity: If investment focuses on sectors with limited final demand, it results in excess capacity, leading to lower profitability, potential bankruptcies, and wasted resources.
  • Demand-Supply Mismatch: A disconnect between what is produced and what consumers actually want can lead to structural imbalances in the economy.

Conversely, focusing solely on final demand without considering derived demand can also be problematic:

  • Supply Constraints: Rapid growth in final demand without adequate investment in supporting industries can lead to supply constraints, inflation, and hinder sustained growth.
  • Increased Import Dependence: If domestic industries supplying intermediate goods are underdeveloped, the economy may become heavily reliant on imports to meet the derived demand, making it vulnerable to external shocks.

The Statement and Avoiding Bottlenecks/Excess Capacities

The statement primarily emphasizes the need to avoid these bottlenecks and excess capacities. By considering both derived and final demands, policymakers can make informed investment decisions that ensure a more efficient allocation of resources. This approach is crucial for maximizing the impact of investment and achieving sustainable economic growth. For example, the ‘Make in India’ initiative (2014) aimed to boost domestic manufacturing, but its success hinged on simultaneously strengthening both the supply side (derived demand – raw materials, components) and the demand side (final demand – consumer goods, exports).

Link to Import Substitution

While the statement doesn’t explicitly advocate for import substitution, it can indirectly support it. If domestic industries supplying intermediate goods are weak, relying on imports to meet derived demand becomes necessary. A balanced growth strategy, by prioritizing investment in these domestic industries, can reduce import dependence and promote self-reliance. However, it’s crucial to note that import substitution should not be pursued indiscriminately. It should be selective, focusing on industries where India has a comparative advantage and where import substitution can lead to long-term cost reductions and increased competitiveness. The import substitution policies adopted in India during the 1960s and 70s, while aiming for self-reliance, often led to inefficiencies and a lack of innovation due to limited competition.

Sectoral Examples in India

Consider the Indian automobile industry. Investment in automobile manufacturing (final demand) needs to be accompanied by investment in the production of auto components, steel, rubber, and electronics (derived demand). Similarly, the growth of the IT sector (final demand) requires investment in telecommunications infrastructure, power generation, and education (derived demand). Failure to address these derived demands can hinder the growth potential of the IT sector.

Sector Final Demand Derived Demand
Agriculture Food Consumption Fertilizers, Irrigation, Farm Machinery
Manufacturing Consumer Goods, Exports Raw Materials, Energy, Transportation
Services (IT) Software Exports, Domestic IT Services Telecommunications, Power, Skilled Labor

Conclusion

In conclusion, the statement underscores the importance of a holistic approach to investment planning, considering both derived and final demands. While it doesn’t inherently promote import substitution, a balanced growth strategy can indirectly support it by strengthening domestic industries and reducing reliance on imports. The key lies in avoiding sectoral imbalances – bottlenecks in supply and excess capacities – to ensure sustainable and inclusive economic development. Effective implementation requires careful analysis of inter-sectoral linkages and a long-term vision for economic growth.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Balanced Growth
A development strategy advocating for simultaneous development of various sectors of the economy to avoid supply-side constraints and demand deficiencies, ensuring a harmonious and sustainable growth path.
Comparative Advantage
An economy's ability to produce a particular good or service at a lower opportunity cost than other economies, forming the basis for specialization and trade.

Key Statistics

India's Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP was 31% in 2022-23 (Provisional Estimates), indicating the level of investment in the economy.

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

India’s share of global manufacturing value added was approximately 3.6% in 2022, highlighting the potential for growth in this sector.

Source: UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) - Knowledge cutoff 2023

Examples

The Green Revolution

The Green Revolution in India (1960s-70s) exemplifies the importance of balanced growth. Increased investment in high-yielding varieties of seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation (derived demand) was crucial to meet the growing demand for food grains (final demand).

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the challenges in implementing a balanced growth strategy?

Challenges include coordinating investment across different sectors, addressing information asymmetries, overcoming political constraints, and ensuring efficient resource allocation.