UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-II201415 Marks
Q20.

Discuss the issues involved in Capital Account Convertibility. In the light of this, explain India's important Capital Account Liberalization measures.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of capital account convertibility, its potential benefits and risks, and India’s cautious approach to liberalization. The answer should begin by defining capital account convertibility and outlining the issues associated with it. Then, it should detail India’s liberalization measures, highlighting the rationale behind each step and the sequencing followed. A balanced discussion acknowledging both the advantages and disadvantages is crucial. Structure the answer into Introduction, Issues involved, India’s liberalization measures, and Conclusion.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Capital account convertibility (CAC) refers to the free flow of capital in and out of a country, without restrictions on the amount or type of capital. It is a key component of financial globalization. While offering potential benefits like increased investment and economic growth, it also poses risks such as financial instability and vulnerability to speculative attacks. India has adopted a cautious and phased approach to CAC, recognizing the need to balance the benefits of integration with the risks to macroeconomic stability. The Tarapore Committee reports (1997, 2006) have been instrumental in shaping India’s capital account liberalization policy.

Issues Involved in Capital Account Convertibility

Full capital account convertibility is not without its challenges. Several issues need careful consideration:

  • Volatility of Capital Flows: Unrestricted capital flows can lead to sudden surges and reversals, disrupting macroeconomic stability. ‘Hot money’ flows, driven by speculative motives, can create asset bubbles and financial crises.
  • Exchange Rate Volatility: CAC can exacerbate exchange rate fluctuations, impacting trade competitiveness and increasing the cost of external debt.
  • Financial Sector Vulnerability: A weak financial system may not be able to withstand large capital inflows or outflows, leading to banking crises and systemic risk.
  • Loss of Monetary Policy Autonomy: Large capital inflows can appreciate the exchange rate, limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation.
  • Regulatory Arbitrage: CAC can facilitate regulatory arbitrage, where entities exploit differences in regulations across countries to engage in risky activities.
  • Supervisory Challenges: Monitoring and supervising capital flows requires sophisticated regulatory frameworks and international cooperation.

India’s Capital Account Liberalization Measures

India’s approach to capital account liberalization has been gradual and carefully sequenced, guided by the recommendations of various committees, notably the Tarapore Committee. Key measures include:

Phase I (Early 1990s - 1997): Initial Steps

  • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Liberalization (1991): Restrictions on FDI were eased, allowing greater foreign participation in various sectors. The initial focus was on attracting FDI to promote economic growth and technology transfer.
  • Portfolio Investment Liberalization (1992-93): Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were allowed to invest in the Indian stock market, subject to certain ceilings and registration requirements.
  • External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) (1994): Indian companies were permitted to borrow from international markets, providing access to cheaper funds.

Phase II (1997 - 2004): Consolidation and Expansion

The Tarapore Committee (1997) recommended a three-year timeframe for achieving full CAC, subject to certain preconditions. However, the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 led to a reassessment of this approach.

  • Liberalization of ECB norms: The scope of ECBs was expanded, and the permissible end-use was broadened.
  • Increased FII investment limits: Investment limits for FIIs in Indian equities were gradually increased.
  • Resident Indians’ Investment Abroad (RIIA): Liberalization of rules governing investments by Indian residents in foreign assets.

Phase III (2005 onwards): Further Liberalization

The Tarapore Committee (2006) reiterated the need for a cautious approach to CAC, emphasizing the importance of strengthening the financial sector and exchange rate management.

  • Automatic Route for FDI in most sectors: The approval process for FDI was simplified, with most sectors being brought under the automatic route.
  • Increased limits for FII investment in government bonds: FII investment limits in government securities were raised to attract foreign capital.
  • Liberalization of outward FDI: Indian companies were allowed to make overseas investments more freely.
  • Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs) (2011): Introduction of QFIs to broaden the investor base and reduce reliance on FIIs.
  • Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) (2016): Allowing these investment vehicles to attract foreign investment into real estate and infrastructure sectors.
Phase Years Key Measures
Phase I 1991-1997 FDI Liberalization, Portfolio Investment Liberalization, ECB introduction
Phase II 1997-2004 ECB Norms Expansion, Increased FII limits, RIIA liberalization
Phase III 2005 onwards Automatic Route for FDI, Increased FII limits in bonds, REITs/InvITs

Conclusion

India’s capital account liberalization has been a gradual process, reflecting a pragmatic approach to balancing the benefits of financial integration with the risks to macroeconomic stability. While significant progress has been made, full CAC remains a distant goal. Strengthening the financial sector, improving exchange rate management, and enhancing regulatory oversight are crucial prerequisites for further liberalization. The current global economic uncertainties necessitate a continued cautious approach, prioritizing stability over rapid liberalization.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Hot Money
Capital that moves across borders in search of the highest short-term interest rates. It is highly volatile and can destabilize economies.
Regulatory Arbitrage
The practice of exploiting differences in regulations across countries to gain an advantage, often by engaging in risky activities in jurisdictions with lax oversight.

Key Statistics

India’s FDI inflows increased from US$ 0.2 billion in 1991 to US$ 84.8 billion in FY23.

Source: Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), Government of India (as of knowledge cutoff - 2023)

As of March 2023, India’s external debt stood at US$ 610.2 billion.

Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (as of knowledge cutoff - 2023)

Examples

East Asian Financial Crisis (1997-98)

The rapid liberalization of capital accounts in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea without adequate regulatory frameworks contributed to the East Asian Financial Crisis, demonstrating the risks of premature liberalization.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why has India been cautious about full capital account convertibility?

India’s caution stems from concerns about its relatively weak financial sector, potential exchange rate volatility, and vulnerability to speculative attacks, particularly given its large current account deficit.

Topics Covered

EconomyInternational FinanceForeign ExchangeCapital MarketsEconomic Policy