UPSC MainsGEOGRAPHY-PAPER-I201420 Marks
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Q20.

Explain the necessary conditions of takeoff and subsequent stages of development of a nation as propounded by Rostow.

How to Approach

This question requires a detailed understanding of Walt Rostow’s Stages of Economic Growth model. The answer should begin by introducing the model and its core premise. Then, it should systematically explain each stage – Traditional Society, Preconditions for Take-off, Take-off, Drive to Maturity, and Age of High Mass Consumption – detailing the necessary conditions for transitioning from one stage to the next. Illustrative examples of countries at different stages will enhance the answer. The focus should be on the economic, social, and political conditions required for each stage.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Walt Rostow’s Stages of Economic Growth model, proposed in his 1960 book *The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto*, provides a historical framework for understanding economic development. It posits that all countries pass through five distinct stages of development, moving from a traditional, agrarian society to a modern, consumer-driven economy. This model, while debated for its linear and somewhat deterministic nature, remains influential in development economics and provides a useful lens for analyzing the economic trajectories of nations. Understanding the necessary conditions for each stage is crucial for policymakers aiming to foster economic growth.

Rostow’s Stages of Economic Growth: A Detailed Explanation

Rostow’s model outlines five stages, each characterized by specific economic, social, and political conditions. The transition between stages isn’t automatic; it requires specific preconditions to be met.

1. The Traditional Society

This is the pre-industrial stage, characterized by a subsistence agricultural economy, limited technology, a hierarchical social structure, and a fatalistic worldview. Production is primarily based on muscle power and animal labor. Social status is often ascribed, and change is slow. Political power is typically concentrated in the hands of landowners. There is limited urbanization and a low level of literacy.

  • Necessary Conditions: Primarily agrarian economy, limited technological advancement, strong social hierarchies, limited mobility, and a lack of centralized political power focused on economic development.
  • Example: Feudal Europe before the Industrial Revolution, or parts of rural Africa in the early 20th century.

2. Preconditions for Take-off

This stage involves the emergence of external demand for raw materials and agricultural products, which stimulates economic activity. Investments in infrastructure, such as transportation and communication, begin to take place. A national identity starts to develop, and there is a growing emphasis on education. Political elites begin to see economic development as a national priority. This stage is marked by the beginning of commercial agriculture and the development of a mining sector.

  • Necessary Conditions: Development of transportation infrastructure (railways, ports), increased investment in education, emergence of a national market, political stability, and the development of a banking and financial system.
  • Example: Brazil in the 19th century with its coffee exports, or India under British rule with the development of railways to facilitate raw material extraction.

3. The Take-off

This is the critical stage where rapid economic growth begins. A few leading sectors experience significant growth, driving overall economic expansion. Investment rates rise dramatically, often exceeding 10% of national income. Political and social institutions become more supportive of economic growth. Urbanization accelerates, and a new entrepreneurial class emerges. This stage is characterized by technological breakthroughs and the development of a modern industrial sector.

  • Necessary Conditions: High rates of investment (over 10% of national income), development of one or more leading manufacturing sectors, political stability, a supportive legal framework, and a growing entrepreneurial class.
  • Example: Great Britain during the Industrial Revolution (late 18th and early 19th centuries), or Japan during the Meiji Restoration (late 19th century).

4. Drive to Maturity

This stage sees the economy diversifying beyond the initial leading sectors. Technology is widely adopted, and the economy becomes more sophisticated. Investment shifts from leading sectors to infrastructure and social services. The economy becomes more integrated into the global economy. There is a growing emphasis on higher education and research and development.

  • Necessary Conditions: Diversification of the economy, technological innovation, increased investment in education and research, development of a skilled workforce, and integration into the global economy.
  • Example: Germany in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, or South Korea in the 1970s and 1980s.

5. Age of High Mass Consumption

This is the final stage, characterized by a high level of consumer spending and a focus on durable goods and services. The majority of the population enjoys a high standard of living. The economy is dominated by the service sector. There is a strong emphasis on social welfare and environmental protection. Political stability is generally high.

  • Necessary Conditions: High levels of disposable income, a large middle class, a well-developed consumer market, a strong social welfare system, and a stable political environment.
  • Example: The United States in the post-World War II era, or Western European countries today.
Stage Dominant Economic Activity Social Structure Political System
Traditional Society Subsistence Agriculture Hierarchical, Ascribed Status Limited Centralization
Preconditions for Take-off Raw Material Export Emerging National Identity Developing Political Institutions
Take-off Leading Sector Growth Entrepreneurial Class Stable Political Environment
Drive to Maturity Diversified Economy Skilled Workforce Integrated Global Economy
Age of High Mass Consumption Service Sector Dominance Large Middle Class Stable Welfare State

Conclusion

Rostow’s Stages of Economic Growth model, despite its criticisms regarding its linear and Eurocentric bias, provides a valuable framework for understanding the process of economic development. While not all nations follow this path precisely, the model highlights the crucial role of investment, technological innovation, political stability, and social change in driving economic growth. Contemporary development strategies often incorporate elements of Rostow’s model, recognizing the importance of building preconditions for take-off and fostering a conducive environment for sustained economic progress. However, it’s important to acknowledge that development is a complex process influenced by a multitude of factors, and a one-size-fits-all approach is unlikely to be successful.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Take-off
The stage in Rostow’s model where a nation experiences rapid economic growth, driven by investment in leading sectors and a shift towards modern economic practices.
Dual Economy
A situation where a country has a traditional, low-productivity agricultural sector alongside a modern, high-productivity industrial sector, often seen during the 'preconditions' and 'take-off' stages.

Key Statistics

In 2022, the global average savings rate was approximately 17.3% (World Bank data, as of knowledge cutoff 2023), highlighting the importance of investment for economic growth.

Source: World Bank

According to the United Nations, Least Developed Countries (LDCs) account for approximately 14% of the global population but only 2% of global GDP (as of knowledge cutoff 2023), illustrating the disparities in economic development.

Source: United Nations

Examples

The East Asian Tigers

Countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong followed a trajectory resembling Rostow’s model, experiencing rapid economic growth through export-oriented industrialization and significant investment in education and infrastructure.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Rostow’s model still relevant today?

While criticized for its simplicity and deterministic nature, Rostow’s model remains relevant as a historical framework for understanding economic development. It highlights the importance of preconditions and stages, even if the path to development is not always linear.

Topics Covered

GeographyEconomyEconomic DevelopmentGlobalizationDevelopment Theories