UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II20145 Marks
Q2.

Normal Distribution: Probability Calculation

A set of parts coming out from a process are measured for their weights. Assuming that the weights are normally distributed with a mean of 73 kg and a standard deviation of 8 kg, what is the probability that a part coming out from this process will weigh between 65 kg and 89 kg?

How to Approach

This question tests the application of statistical concepts, specifically the normal distribution and probability calculations. The approach should involve understanding the problem, applying the concept of Z-score, utilizing standard normal distribution tables (or a calculator), and calculating the probability. The answer should clearly demonstrate the steps involved in the calculation and provide a final probability value. Focus on explaining the logic behind each step.

Model Answer

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Introduction

In quality control and manufacturing processes, understanding the distribution of product characteristics is crucial for ensuring quality and minimizing defects. The normal distribution is a fundamental statistical tool used to model such characteristics, like the weight of parts produced. By knowing the mean and standard deviation, we can calculate the probability of a part falling within a specific weight range. This question requires us to determine the probability that a part’s weight lies between 65 kg and 89 kg, given a normal distribution with a mean of 73 kg and a standard deviation of 8 kg.

Understanding the Problem

We are given that the weights of parts are normally distributed. This means the distribution is symmetrical and bell-shaped, defined by its mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ). Here, μ = 73 kg and σ = 8 kg. We need to find the probability P(65 ≤ X ≤ 89), where X represents the weight of a part.

Calculating Z-Scores

To find this probability, we first need to convert the weights (65 kg and 89 kg) into Z-scores. The Z-score represents the number of standard deviations a particular value is away from the mean. The formula for calculating the Z-score is:

Z = (X - μ) / σ

Calculating Z-score for 65 kg

Z1 = (65 - 73) / 8 = -8 / 8 = -1

Calculating Z-score for 89 kg

Z2 = (89 - 73) / 8 = 16 / 8 = 2

Using the Standard Normal Distribution Table

Now we need to find the probability corresponding to these Z-scores. We are looking for P(-1 ≤ Z ≤ 2). This can be calculated as P(Z ≤ 2) - P(Z ≤ -1). We can use a standard normal distribution table (also known as a Z-table) to find these probabilities.

Finding P(Z ≤ 2)

Looking up Z = 2 in a standard normal distribution table, we find P(Z ≤ 2) ≈ 0.9772.

Finding P(Z ≤ -1)

Looking up Z = -1 in a standard normal distribution table, we find P(Z ≤ -1) ≈ 0.1587.

Calculating the Probability

Therefore, P(-1 ≤ Z ≤ 2) = P(Z ≤ 2) - P(Z ≤ -1) = 0.9772 - 0.1587 = 0.8185

Final Answer

The probability that a part coming out from this process will weigh between 65 kg and 89 kg is approximately 0.8185 or 81.85%.

Conclusion

In conclusion, by utilizing the concept of the normal distribution and calculating Z-scores, we were able to determine the probability of a part’s weight falling within the specified range. This demonstrates the practical application of statistical tools in quality control and process management. Understanding these principles is vital for optimizing production processes and ensuring product consistency. The ability to interpret and apply statistical data is a key skill for effective management decision-making.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Normal Distribution
A probability distribution that is symmetrical about the mean, resulting in a bell-shaped curve. It is defined by its mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ).
Z-Score
A statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean.

Key Statistics

According to Six Sigma principles, a process capability index (Cp) of 1.33 or higher indicates a capable process, meaning it can consistently meet specifications. (Source: ASQ - American Society for Quality, knowledge cutoff 2023)

Source: ASQ

In 2022, the global market for statistical software was valued at USD 53.8 billion and is projected to reach USD 88.1 billion by 2030. (Source: Grand View Research, knowledge cutoff 2023)

Source: Grand View Research

Examples

Height Distribution

The heights of adult women are approximately normally distributed with a mean of 162.5 cm and a standard deviation of 6.3 cm. This allows us to estimate the proportion of women falling within specific height ranges.

Frequently Asked Questions

What if the data is not normally distributed?

If the data is not normally distributed, other statistical methods, such as non-parametric tests, should be used to analyze the data and calculate probabilities. Transformations of the data might also be considered to approximate a normal distribution.

Topics Covered

StatisticsMathematicsData AnalysisProbabilityNormal DistributionStatistical Inference