UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II201410 Marks
Q18.

Explain the concept of 'terms of trade' and its significance. Differentiate between 'net', 'gross' and 'income' terms of trade. Identify the reasons for differences of 'terms of trade' between developed and developing countries.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of international trade economics. The approach should begin with defining 'terms of trade' and its importance in gauging a country’s economic well-being. Subsequently, the different types – net, gross, and income – need to be clearly differentiated with examples. Finally, the reasons for the disparity in terms of trade between developed and developing nations, focusing on factors like comparative advantage, industrialization, and global power dynamics, should be discussed. A structured answer with clear definitions and comparative analysis is crucial.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Terms of Trade (TOT) represent the relative price of a country’s exports in terms of its imports. It’s a crucial indicator of a nation’s economic health, reflecting its bargaining power in international trade and its ability to finance imports. A rising TOT generally indicates improved economic conditions, while a declining TOT suggests the opposite. In recent years, the TOT for many developing countries have faced challenges due to volatile commodity prices and increasing import costs, impacting their economic growth and development. Understanding the nuances of TOT – gross, net, and income – is vital for formulating effective trade policies.

Understanding Terms of Trade

Terms of Trade (TOT) are calculated as the ratio of a country’s export prices to its import prices, expressed as an index number. It essentially shows how much import goods a country can obtain for each unit of export goods. A TOT greater than 100 indicates that export prices are rising relative to import prices, which is generally favorable. Conversely, a TOT less than 100 suggests the opposite.

Differentiating Between Gross, Net, and Income Terms of Trade

While the basic concept remains the same, different variations of TOT provide a more detailed picture of a country’s trade performance:

  • Gross Terms of Trade: This is the simplest form, calculated as (Index of Export Prices / Index of Import Prices) * 100. It reflects the price relationship between exports and imports without considering the volume of trade.
  • Net Terms of Trade: This takes into account the volume of exports and imports. It’s calculated as (Price of Exports – Price of Imports) / (Quantity of Exports – Quantity of Imports). Net TOT provides a more accurate picture of the real benefit a country derives from trade.
  • Income Terms of Trade: This is the most comprehensive measure, considering both price and quantity changes and their impact on a country’s national income. It’s calculated as (Value of Exports / Value of Imports). Income TOT shows the actual purchasing power gained from international trade.

Example: Consider a country exporting wheat and importing machinery. If the price of wheat increases while the price of machinery remains constant, the gross terms of trade will improve. However, if the quantity of wheat exported decreases significantly, the net terms of trade might not improve as much. If the increased revenue from wheat doesn't offset the cost of machinery, the income terms of trade could even decline.

Reasons for Differences in Terms of Trade between Developed and Developing Countries

Significant disparities exist in the terms of trade between developed and developing countries, largely due to structural economic differences:

  • Comparative Advantage & Specialization: Developing countries often specialize in primary commodities (agricultural products, raw materials) which typically have lower price elasticity of demand and face price volatility. Developed countries, on the other hand, specialize in manufactured goods and services with higher value addition and more stable prices.
  • Industrialization & Technological Advancement: Developed countries have undergone significant industrialization and technological advancements, allowing them to produce higher-value goods and services. This gives them greater bargaining power in international trade.
  • Global Power Dynamics & Trade Policies: Developed countries often wield greater influence in international trade negotiations and can shape trade policies to their advantage. Protectionist measures in developed countries can also restrict access for developing country exports.
  • Demand Patterns: Demand for primary commodities tends to grow slower than demand for manufactured goods, putting downward pressure on the prices of developing country exports.
  • Supply Shocks: Developing countries are often more vulnerable to supply shocks (e.g., weather-related disasters affecting agricultural production) which can disrupt exports and worsen their terms of trade.
  • Value Chain Capture: Developed countries often control key segments of global value chains, capturing a larger share of the profits and leaving developing countries with lower returns.

Example: Many African countries rely heavily on exporting cocoa beans. The price of cocoa is subject to significant fluctuations, while the price of finished chocolate products (manufactured in developed countries) remains relatively stable. This results in unfavorable terms of trade for cocoa-exporting African nations.

Feature Developed Countries Developing Countries
Specialization Manufactured goods, services Primary commodities
Technological Advancement High Low
Bargaining Power High Low
Price Elasticity of Demand (Exports) Relatively inelastic Relatively elastic

Conclusion

Terms of Trade are a vital indicator of a nation’s economic well-being and its position in the global economy. The disparities between developed and developing countries highlight the structural challenges faced by the latter, stemming from specialization in primary commodities, limited industrialization, and unequal bargaining power. Addressing these issues requires diversifying exports, promoting value addition, and advocating for fairer trade policies to improve the terms of trade and foster sustainable economic development in developing nations.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Price Elasticity of Demand
A measure of how much the quantity demanded of a good changes in response to a change in its price. Elastic demand means a large change in quantity demanded with a small price change; inelastic demand means a small change in quantity demanded with a large price change.
Value Addition
The process of increasing the economic value of a product by transforming it from its raw state into a more finished or usable form. This often involves manufacturing, processing, or branding.

Key Statistics

In 2022, the UNCTAD reported that the terms of trade for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) deteriorated by 11.7% due to rising import costs, particularly for energy and food.

Source: UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report 2023

According to the World Bank, in 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for approximately 2.3% of global exports, primarily consisting of fuels, ores, and agricultural products.

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (2023)

Examples

Dutch Disease

The "Dutch Disease" refers to the apparent causal relationship between the increase in the economic development of the Dutch economy after the discovery of large natural gas reserves in 1959, and the decline of the manufacturing sector. This illustrates how a boom in one sector (natural gas) can negatively impact the terms of trade for other sectors (manufacturing).

Frequently Asked Questions

How can developing countries improve their terms of trade?

Developing countries can improve their terms of trade by diversifying their exports, investing in education and technology to move up the value chain, negotiating better trade agreements, and promoting regional integration to increase their bargaining power.

Topics Covered

EconomicsInternational BusinessTradeTrade PolicyEconomic DevelopmentGlobal Trade