UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I201520 Marks
Q24.

New Growth Theory: Capital, Output & Technology

In an economy having two sectors, namely, goods-producing sector and Research and Development (R & D) sector, prove with the help of new growth theory that (i) both capital and aggregate output must grow at the same rate and (ii) per capita output must grow at the rate of growth of technology.

How to Approach

This question requires a demonstration of understanding of New Growth Theory, specifically the models developed by Paul Romer and Robert Lucas. The approach should involve first outlining the core tenets of New Growth Theory, emphasizing the role of knowledge and R&D as drivers of sustained economic growth. Then, mathematically (or logically, if mathematical derivation is beyond the scope) demonstrate how capital accumulation and aggregate output grow at the same rate, and how per capita output growth is linked to technological progress. The answer should be structured logically, starting with the theoretical framework and then applying it to the given two-sector economy.

Model Answer

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Introduction

New Growth Theory, emerging in the 1980s as a response to the limitations of the Solow-Swan model, posits that sustained economic growth is primarily driven by endogenous factors, particularly technological progress resulting from investment in research and development (R&D) and human capital. Unlike the Solow model which treats technological progress as exogenous, New Growth Theory emphasizes the role of innovation and knowledge accumulation. This theory is particularly relevant in understanding the dynamics of modern economies where R&D plays a crucial role. This answer will demonstrate, within a two-sector economy comprising goods production and R&D, how capital and aggregate output grow at the same rate, and how per capita output growth is determined by the rate of technological advancement.

Theoretical Framework: New Growth Theory

The core of New Growth Theory lies in the idea of increasing returns to scale, driven by knowledge spillovers and non-rivalrous knowledge. Knowledge, once created, can be used by multiple agents without diminishing its value. This contrasts with physical capital, which is subject to diminishing returns. Romer (1986) highlighted the importance of R&D as a key engine of growth, while Lucas (1988) emphasized the role of human capital accumulation.

The Two-Sector Economy

Consider an economy with two sectors: a goods-producing sector (Y) and a Research & Development (R&D) sector (A). Let:

  • Y = Aggregate output
  • K = Total capital stock
  • L = Labor force
  • A = Level of technology (total factor productivity)
  • gY = Growth rate of aggregate output
  • gK = Growth rate of capital stock
  • gA = Growth rate of technology
  • gL = Growth rate of labor force
  • y = Per capita output (Y/L)

(i) Capital and Aggregate Output Growth

In a simplified production function for the goods-producing sector, we can represent output as:

Y = A * Kα * L(1-α), where 0 < α < 1

Taking the growth rate of both sides:

gY = gA + αgK + (1-α)gL

Now, assume that the R&D sector’s output (A) is directly proportional to the capital invested in R&D (KR&D). This implies that investment in R&D leads to technological progress. Furthermore, assume that the total capital stock (K) is allocated between the goods-producing sector (KY) and the R&D sector (KR&D), so K = KY + KR&D.

If we assume that the growth rate of the labor force (gL) is zero (or constant and not influencing long-run growth), the equation simplifies to:

gY = gA + αgK

The key insight from New Growth Theory is that the growth rate of technology (gA) is itself dependent on the capital stock allocated to R&D (KR&D). If we assume a constant share of capital allocated to R&D, then gA is proportional to gK. Specifically, if gA = βgK (where β is a constant representing the effectiveness of R&D investment), then:

gY = βgK + αgK = (α + β)gK

This equation demonstrates that the growth rate of aggregate output (gY) is directly proportional to the growth rate of the total capital stock (gK). Therefore, both capital and aggregate output must grow at the same rate.

(ii) Per Capita Output Growth and Technological Progress

Per capita output (y) is defined as Y/L. Its growth rate (gy) is:

gy = gY - gL

Since we assumed gL = 0, then gy = gY.

From the previous section, we know that gY = gA + αgK. However, in the long run, capital accumulation is subject to diminishing returns. Therefore, the contribution of capital accumulation to growth (αgK) will eventually diminish. This means that sustained per capita output growth can only be achieved through continuous technological progress (gA).

Therefore, per capita output must grow at the rate of growth of technology (gy = gA). This is because, in the long run, the growth in capital stock becomes less significant, and technological progress becomes the primary driver of per capita output growth.

Policy Implications

These findings have significant policy implications. Governments should encourage investment in R&D through subsidies, tax incentives, and protection of intellectual property rights. Investing in education and human capital is also crucial, as a skilled workforce is essential for innovation and the adoption of new technologies. Furthermore, policies that promote competition and knowledge spillovers can accelerate technological progress.

Conclusion

In conclusion, New Growth Theory provides a compelling framework for understanding the drivers of sustained economic growth. The analysis of a two-sector economy demonstrates that capital and aggregate output grow at the same rate, and that per capita output growth is fundamentally determined by the rate of technological progress. This underscores the importance of policies that foster innovation, R&D, and human capital development to achieve long-term economic prosperity. The focus should shift from merely accumulating capital to creating an environment conducive to knowledge creation and dissemination.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
A measure of the efficiency with which inputs (labor and capital) are used to produce output. It reflects the level of technology and organizational efficiency.
Knowledge Spillovers
The benefits that accrue to firms or individuals as a result of knowledge created by others, without requiring direct compensation. These spillovers are a key feature of New Growth Theory, as they lead to increasing returns to scale.

Key Statistics

Global R&D spending reached $2.2 trillion in 2019, with the United States, China, Japan, and Germany accounting for over 70% of the total.

Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, 2021

China's R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP increased from 0.65% in 2000 to 2.4% in 2021.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2022

Examples

Silicon Valley

Silicon Valley in California exemplifies the principles of New Growth Theory. The concentration of high-tech companies, venture capital, and skilled labor creates a dynamic ecosystem where knowledge spillovers and innovation thrive, leading to rapid economic growth.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between the Solow model and New Growth Theory?

The Solow model treats technological progress as exogenous, meaning it comes from outside the model. New Growth Theory, however, endogenizes technological progress, explaining it as a result of deliberate investment in R&D and human capital within the economy.

Topics Covered

EconomyEconomic GrowthEconomic Growth ModelsTechnologyR&D