UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I201610 Marks150 Words
Q4.

What are the fiscal and monetary implications of vertical IS and vertical LM curves?

How to Approach

This question requires understanding of the IS-LM model and its implications when both curves are vertical. The answer should explain how a vertical IS curve signifies a situation where fiscal policy is ineffective, and a vertical LM curve indicates monetary policy ineffectiveness. It should then detail the combined implications – a liquidity trap and fiscal dominance. Structure the answer by first defining the IS-LM model, then explaining the vertical curves individually, and finally, their combined effect. Use clear economic reasoning and avoid overly complex mathematical derivations.

Model Answer

0 min read

Introduction

The IS-LM model, developed by John Hicks and Alvin Hansen, is a macroeconomic tool illustrating the interaction between the goods and money markets to determine equilibrium interest rates and output levels. It’s a cornerstone of Keynesian economics. A vertical IS curve implies that investment is unresponsive to changes in interest rates, while a vertical LM curve suggests that the money supply is infinitely elastic or that demand for money is infinitely sensitive to interest rate changes. When both curves are vertical, the economy faces a unique set of challenges regarding the effectiveness of both fiscal and monetary policies.

Understanding the IS and LM Curves

The IS curve represents the equilibrium in the goods market, showing combinations of interest rates and output levels where planned investment equals planned savings. The LM curve represents the equilibrium in the money market, showing combinations of interest rates and output levels where money demand equals money supply.

Vertical IS Curve: Fiscal Policy Ineffectiveness

A vertical IS curve indicates that output (Y) is fixed at its full employment level. This happens when aggregate supply is perfectly inelastic. In such a scenario, any attempt to increase aggregate demand through expansionary fiscal policy – such as increased government spending or tax cuts – will only lead to inflation. The increased demand simply bids up prices as the economy cannot produce more goods and services. Mathematically, this is represented by a zero multiplier effect. For example, if the economy is already at full capacity, a large infrastructure project funded by borrowing will not increase real output but will raise prices.

Vertical LM Curve: Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness

A vertical LM curve signifies that the money supply is perfectly inelastic, or that the demand for money is infinitely elastic with respect to the interest rate. This situation, often referred to as a liquidity trap, arises when interest rates are already near zero. Further increases in the money supply will not lower interest rates, and therefore, will not stimulate investment or consumption. People simply hoard the additional money, expecting interest rates to rise or prices to fall. Japan experienced a prolonged liquidity trap in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Combined Implications: Fiscal Dominance and Stagnation

When both the IS and LM curves are vertical, the economy is in a particularly difficult position. Monetary policy is rendered ineffective due to the liquidity trap, and fiscal policy is ineffective due to full employment. This leads to a situation of fiscal dominance, where fiscal policy becomes the only available tool, but its effectiveness is limited to influencing the price level. The economy is stuck at a fixed level of output, and any attempt to stimulate demand will only result in inflation. This scenario highlights the limitations of Keynesian policies in certain extreme circumstances.

Table Summarizing Implications

Curve Implication Policy Effectiveness
Vertical IS Full Employment, Fixed Output Fiscal Policy: Ineffective (leads to inflation)
Vertical LM Liquidity Trap, Zero Lower Bound Monetary Policy: Ineffective (hoarding of money)
Both Vertical Fiscal Dominance, Stagnation Both Policies: Largely Ineffective

Conclusion

In conclusion, the simultaneous presence of vertical IS and LM curves represents a challenging macroeconomic scenario characterized by the ineffectiveness of both fiscal and monetary policies. This situation, often associated with full employment and a liquidity trap, highlights the limitations of conventional demand-side policies and underscores the importance of supply-side reforms to boost potential output. Addressing such a situation requires a shift in focus towards structural changes that can increase the economy’s productive capacity and alleviate inflationary pressures.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Liquidity Trap
A situation in which monetary policy becomes ineffective because interest rates are already near zero, and further increases in the money supply do not stimulate investment or consumption.
Fiscal Dominance
A situation where fiscal policy dictates macroeconomic outcomes, often because monetary policy is constrained (e.g., by a liquidity trap) or lacks independence.

Key Statistics

Japan experienced near-zero or negative interest rates for over two decades (1990s-2010s), demonstrating a prolonged liquidity trap.

Source: Bank of Japan data (as of knowledge cutoff 2023)

The US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded significantly after the 2008 financial crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet inflation remained subdued for a prolonged period, indicating potential limitations of monetary policy.

Source: Federal Reserve data (as of knowledge cutoff 2023)

Examples

The Great Depression

During the Great Depression, despite significant increases in the money supply, interest rates remained low, and investment did not recover, illustrating aspects of a liquidity trap.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can supply-side policies be effective in this scenario?

Yes, supply-side policies such as tax cuts aimed at increasing labor supply, deregulation, and investments in education and infrastructure can be effective in shifting the IS curve to the right by increasing potential output.

Topics Covered

EconomicsMacroeconomicsFiscal PolicyIS CurveLM CurveMonetary Policy