Model Answer
0 min readIntroduction
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. It is widely used in various fields like queuing theory, traffic flow analysis, and reliability engineering. This question requires us to utilize the properties of the Poisson distribution to determine its parameters and probabilities based on a given condition.
Understanding the Poisson Distribution
The probability mass function (PMF) of a Poisson distribution is given by:
P(x = k) = (e-λ * λk) / k!
where:
- x is the random variable representing the number of events
- k is a non-negative integer (0, 1, 2, ...)
- λ (lambda) is the average rate of events
- e is Euler's number (approximately 2.71828)
- k! is the factorial of k
Finding the Mean (λ) and Variance
We are given that Prob(x = 1) = Prob(x = 2). Using the PMF, we can write:
(e-λ * λ1) / 1! = (e-λ * λ2) / 2!
Simplifying the equation:
λ = λ2 / 2
Since λ cannot be zero (otherwise it wouldn't be a Poisson distribution), we can divide both sides by λ:
1 = λ / 2
Therefore, λ = 2
For a Poisson distribution, the mean (μ) is equal to the variance (σ2), and both are equal to λ.
Therefore, Mean (μ) = λ = 2
Variance (σ2) = λ = 2
Calculating Prob(x = 0)
Now, we need to find Prob(x = 0) using the PMF and the value of λ we found:
Prob(x = 0) = (e-2 * 20) / 0!
Since 20 = 1 and 0! = 1:
Prob(x = 0) = e-2
Prob(x = 0) ≈ 0.1353
Summary of Results
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Mean (λ) | 2 |
| Variance (λ) | 2 |
| Prob(x = 0) | e-2 ≈ 0.1353 |
Conclusion
In conclusion, given that Prob(x=1) = Prob(x=2) for a Poisson distribution, we determined the mean (λ) and variance to be 2. Subsequently, we calculated the probability of observing zero events, Prob(x=0), to be approximately 0.1353. This demonstrates a practical application of the Poisson distribution's properties in determining key statistical parameters and probabilities. Understanding these concepts is crucial for modeling and analyzing events occurring randomly over a fixed interval.
Answer Length
This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.