UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II20163 Marks
Q24.

If a random variable x follows a Poisson distribution such that Prob (x = 1) = Prob (x = 2), find the mean and variance. Also find Prob (x = 0).

How to Approach

This question tests the understanding of the Poisson distribution and its properties. The approach should involve recalling the probability mass function of the Poisson distribution, using the given condition (Prob(x=1) = Prob(x=2)) to find the parameter lambda (λ), and then calculating the mean, variance, and Prob(x=0). The solution should be step-by-step and clearly demonstrate the application of the Poisson distribution formula.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. It is widely used in various fields like queuing theory, traffic flow analysis, and reliability engineering. This question requires us to utilize the properties of the Poisson distribution to determine its parameters and probabilities based on a given condition.

Understanding the Poisson Distribution

The probability mass function (PMF) of a Poisson distribution is given by:

P(x = k) = (e * λk) / k!

where:

  • x is the random variable representing the number of events
  • k is a non-negative integer (0, 1, 2, ...)
  • λ (lambda) is the average rate of events
  • e is Euler's number (approximately 2.71828)
  • k! is the factorial of k

Finding the Mean (λ) and Variance

We are given that Prob(x = 1) = Prob(x = 2). Using the PMF, we can write:

(e * λ1) / 1! = (e * λ2) / 2!

Simplifying the equation:

λ = λ2 / 2

Since λ cannot be zero (otherwise it wouldn't be a Poisson distribution), we can divide both sides by λ:

1 = λ / 2

Therefore, λ = 2

For a Poisson distribution, the mean (μ) is equal to the variance (σ2), and both are equal to λ.

Therefore, Mean (μ) = λ = 2

Variance (σ2) = λ = 2

Calculating Prob(x = 0)

Now, we need to find Prob(x = 0) using the PMF and the value of λ we found:

Prob(x = 0) = (e-2 * 20) / 0!

Since 20 = 1 and 0! = 1:

Prob(x = 0) = e-2

Prob(x = 0) ≈ 0.1353

Summary of Results

Parameter Value
Mean (λ) 2
Variance (λ) 2
Prob(x = 0) e-2 ≈ 0.1353

Conclusion

In conclusion, given that Prob(x=1) = Prob(x=2) for a Poisson distribution, we determined the mean (λ) and variance to be 2. Subsequently, we calculated the probability of observing zero events, Prob(x=0), to be approximately 0.1353. This demonstrates a practical application of the Poisson distribution's properties in determining key statistical parameters and probabilities. Understanding these concepts is crucial for modeling and analyzing events occurring randomly over a fixed interval.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Poisson Process
A stochastic process that counts the number of events occurring in a given time interval, where events occur independently and at a constant average rate.
Probability Mass Function (PMF)
A function that gives the probability that a discrete random variable is exactly equal to some value.

Key Statistics

According to a study by the National Safety Council (2023), accidental deaths in the US have been increasing, and Poisson distribution can be used to model the frequency of such events.

Source: National Safety Council, Injury Facts 2023 Edition

In queuing theory, the average arrival rate of customers is often modeled using a Poisson distribution. A study in 2022 showed that 68% of businesses use queuing models for customer service optimization.

Source: Queueing Theory and its Applications, 2022

Examples

Call Center Modeling

The number of calls received by a call center per hour can often be modeled using a Poisson distribution, assuming calls arrive randomly and independently.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the conditions required for a distribution to be considered Poisson?

Events must occur randomly and independently, at a constant average rate, and be countable.