UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II20164 Marks
Q3.

The two regression lines obtained from a certain data were Y = X + 5 and 16X = 9Y – 94. Find the variance of X, if the variance of Y is 16. Also find the covariance between X and Y.

How to Approach

This question tests the understanding of linear regression and its related statistical measures. The approach should involve first finding the means of X and Y using the given regression lines. Then, using the relationship between the regression coefficients and the correlation coefficient, calculate the correlation coefficient (r). Finally, use 'r' and the variances of X and Y to determine the covariance. A step-by-step calculation is crucial for clarity and accuracy.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Regression analysis is a powerful statistical tool used to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The regression lines represent the best-fit lines that describe this relationship. Understanding the properties of these lines, such as their slopes and intercepts, allows us to calculate important statistical measures like variance and covariance, which quantify the spread and association of the variables. This question requires applying these concepts to determine the variance of X and the covariance between X and Y, given the regression equations and the variance of Y.

Understanding the Regression Lines

We are given two regression lines:

  • Y = X + 5 (Regression of Y on X)
  • 16X = 9Y – 94 (Regression of X on Y)

These can be rewritten as:

  • Y = 1X + 5 (byx = 1)
  • X = (9/16)Y – (94/16) = (9/16)Y – 5.875 (bxy = 9/16)

Here, byx represents the regression coefficient of Y on X, and bxy represents the regression coefficient of X on Y.

Calculating the Correlation Coefficient (r)

The correlation coefficient (r) is related to the regression coefficients by the following formula:

r2 = bxy * byx

Substituting the values, we get:

r2 = (9/16) * 1 = 9/16

Therefore, r = ±√(9/16) = ±3/4 = ±0.75

Finding the Means of X and Y

The regression line Y = X + 5 passes through the point (X̄, Ȳ), where X̄ and Ȳ are the means of X and Y respectively. Therefore:

Ȳ = X̄ + 5

Similarly, the regression line X = (9/16)Y – 5.875 passes through the point (X̄, Ȳ). Therefore:

X̄ = (9/16)Ȳ – 5.875

Substituting Ȳ = X̄ + 5 into the second equation:

X̄ = (9/16)(X̄ + 5) – 5.875

X̄ = (9/16)X̄ + (45/16) – 5.875

X̄ = (9/16)X̄ + 2.8125 – 5.875

X̄ = (9/16)X̄ – 3.0625

X̄ – (9/16)X̄ = -3.0625

(7/16)X̄ = -3.0625

X̄ = (-3.0625 * 16) / 7 = -7.00

Now, we can find Ȳ:

Ȳ = X̄ + 5 = -7 + 5 = -2

Calculating the Variance of X

We know that the variance of Y (Var(Y)) is 16. The relationship between the variances and the correlation coefficient is given by:

Var(X) = r2 * Var(Y)

Using r = ±0.75, we have r2 = 0.5625

Var(X) = 0.5625 * 16 = 9

Calculating the Covariance between X and Y

The covariance between X and Y (Cov(X, Y)) is given by:

Cov(X, Y) = r * σX * σY

Where σX is the standard deviation of X and σY is the standard deviation of Y.

σX = √Var(X) = √9 = 3

σY = √Var(Y) = √16 = 4

Cov(X, Y) = ±0.75 * 3 * 4 = ±9

Conclusion

In conclusion, we have determined the variance of X to be 9 and the covariance between X and Y to be ±9. The sign of the covariance depends on the sign of the correlation coefficient, indicating whether the variables tend to increase or decrease together. This analysis demonstrates the application of regression principles to derive key statistical measures from the given regression lines and variance information.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Regression Analysis
A statistical process for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
Covariance
A measure of how much two random variables change together. A positive covariance indicates that the variables tend to increase or decrease together, while a negative covariance indicates that they tend to move in opposite directions.

Key Statistics

The global average temperature has increased by approximately 1.1°C since the late 19th century (IPCC, 2021).

Source: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021)

India's GDP growth rate was 7.2% in the fiscal year 2022-23 (National Statistical Office, 2023).

Source: National Statistical Office (2023)

Examples

Predicting Sales

A retail company uses regression analysis to predict sales based on advertising expenditure. The regression equation helps them determine the optimal advertising budget to maximize revenue.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between correlation and regression?

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables, while regression aims to model the relationship and predict the value of one variable based on the value of another.