UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-II201820 Marks
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Q23.

Demonetisation has been a radical and unprecedented step with short-run costs and long-term benefits. Give reasons in support of this statement.

How to Approach

This question requires a balanced and nuanced answer. The approach should be to first define demonetisation and its objectives. Then, systematically outline the short-run costs (economic disruption, impact on various sectors) and long-term benefits (formalization of economy, curbing black money, digital economy boost). Support arguments with data, reports, and examples. A critical analysis of the success and failures is crucial. The answer should avoid taking a purely pro or anti-demonetisation stance, instead presenting a comprehensive overview.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Demonetisation, defined as the act of removing a currency unit from circulation, is a drastic monetary policy often employed to combat issues like black money, inflation, and terrorism financing. The Indian government’s demonetisation exercise in November 2016, involving the withdrawal of 500 and 1000 rupee notes, was a landmark event. While proponents hailed it as a bold step towards a cleaner economy, critics pointed to the immediate economic disruption. This answer will explore the reasons supporting the statement that demonetisation was a radical and unprecedented step with short-run costs and long-term benefits, providing a balanced assessment of its impact.

Short-Run Costs of Demonetisation

The immediate aftermath of demonetisation was marked by significant economic disruption. The sudden removal of 86% of the currency in circulation created a severe cash crunch, impacting various sectors.

  • Economic Slowdown: India’s GDP growth slowed down to 6.7% in FY17 from 8.2% in FY16 (Economic Survey 2016-17). This was largely attributed to the disruption in economic activity due to cash shortages.
  • Impact on Informal Sector: The informal sector, heavily reliant on cash transactions, was severely affected. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) faced difficulties in paying wages and procuring raw materials.
  • Agricultural Distress: Farmers faced challenges in procuring seeds, fertilizers, and selling their produce due to the cash crunch, leading to distress sales and reduced income.
  • Logistical Challenges: The process of replacing the demonetised notes with new ones was fraught with logistical challenges, leading to long queues at banks and ATMs.
  • Increased Transaction Costs: Individuals and businesses incurred significant transaction costs in converting old notes into new ones.

Long-Term Benefits of Demonetisation

Despite the short-run costs, demonetisation was expected to yield several long-term benefits, aimed at reforming the Indian economy.

  • Formalization of the Economy: Demonetisation encouraged the formalization of the economy as individuals and businesses were compelled to deposit cash into banks, bringing previously untracked money into the banking system.
  • Curbing Black Money: The objective of curbing black money was a primary driver of demonetisation. While the extent to which it achieved this goal is debatable, a significant amount of previously undisclosed income was deposited into banks.
  • Boost to Digital Economy: The cash crunch spurred the adoption of digital payment methods like mobile wallets, UPI, and debit/credit cards. UPI transactions witnessed a phenomenal increase post-demonetisation.
  • Increased Tax Base: The increased formalization of the economy and the detection of undisclosed income led to an expansion of the tax base.
  • Reduced Counterfeit Currency: Demonetisation aimed to curb the circulation of counterfeit currency, which poses a threat to national security and economic stability.

Analyzing the Effectiveness – A Mixed Outcome

The effectiveness of demonetisation remains a subject of debate. While some of the intended benefits were realized, others fell short of expectations.

Aspect Expected Outcome Actual Outcome
Black Money Significant reduction in black money Majority of demonetised notes were deposited back into banks; limited impact on wealth held in real estate or foreign assets.
Digital Transactions Substantial increase in digital payments Significant increase in digital transactions, particularly UPI, but cash remains dominant.
Formalization Increased formalization of the economy Increased bank deposits and tax base, indicating some degree of formalization.
GDP Growth Positive impact on long-term growth Short-term slowdown in GDP growth; long-term impact still debated.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported that 99.3% of the demonetised notes were returned to the banking system, indicating that the objective of eliminating black money was not fully achieved. However, the increase in digital transactions and the expansion of the tax base suggest some positive outcomes.

Conclusion

Demonetisation was undoubtedly a radical and unprecedented step, undertaken with the ambitious goals of curbing black money, formalizing the economy, and promoting digital transactions. While the short-run costs were substantial, manifested in economic disruption and hardship for many, it did contribute to some long-term benefits, particularly in the realm of digital payments and formalization. However, the overall success of the exercise remains contested, with the objective of eliminating black money largely unmet. A more comprehensive and well-planned approach, coupled with robust enforcement mechanisms, is crucial for tackling the issue of black money effectively in the future.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Demonetisation
The act of stripping a currency unit of its status as legal tender. It occurs when there is a change in the national currency.
UPI (Unified Payments Interface)
A real-time payment system developed by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) that facilitates instant fund transfers between bank accounts.

Key Statistics

Approximately 86% of India’s currency in circulation (by value) was invalidated on November 8, 2016.

Source: RBI Bulletin, November 2016

UPI transactions increased from 1.5 million in November 2016 to over 7.4 billion in December 2023.

Source: NPCI Data (as of Dec 2023)

Examples

Zimbabwe’s Demonetisation (2019)

Zimbabwe demonetised its old currency in 2019 to combat hyperinflation and introduce a new currency, the Zimbabwe dollar. This example highlights the use of demonetisation in addressing severe economic crises.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did demonetisation actually reduce black money?

The majority of demonetised notes were deposited back into banks, suggesting that it didn’t eliminate black money as intended. However, it did force some previously untracked wealth into the formal banking system.

Topics Covered

EconomyFinanceMonetary PolicyEconomic DisruptionBlack Money