Model Answer
0 min readIntroduction
Central Asia, historically a crossroads of civilizations, has re-emerged as a strategically vital region due to its rich energy resources and geopolitical location. India shares historical and cultural ties with the region and has significant economic and security interests there. However, the region is witnessing increased competition among outside powers like China, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey. In this context, India’s accession to the Ashgabat Agreement in 2018 – a multimodal transport agreement – becomes particularly significant. This agreement aims to facilitate trade and transit between India, Iran, Afghanistan, and other Central Asian nations, offering India a crucial pathway to enhance its connectivity and influence.
India’s Interests in Central Asia
India’s engagement with Central Asia is driven by several factors:
- Energy Security: The region holds substantial oil and gas reserves, crucial for India’s growing energy demands.
- Economic Opportunities: Central Asia presents a potential market for Indian goods and services, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, IT, and agriculture.
- Connectivity: Establishing robust transport corridors is vital for accessing Central Asian markets and reducing dependence on traditional routes.
- Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Addressing the threat of terrorism and extremism emanating from the region is a shared concern.
- Regional Stability: India desires a stable and prosperous Central Asia to ensure regional peace and security.
The Ashgabat Agreement: Implications for India
The Ashgabat Agreement, signed in 2018, establishes a framework for international transport and transit corridors. Its key implications for India are:
- Enhanced Trade: The agreement facilitates smoother and more cost-effective trade between India and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
- Chabahar Port Synergy: It complements India’s investment in Chabahar Port in Iran, providing a crucial link for transporting goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
- Connectivity Boost: The agreement promotes the development of multimodal transport infrastructure, including roads, railways, and sea routes.
- Reduced Transit Time & Costs: Streamlined customs procedures and standardized documentation reduce transit times and costs.
India’s Position Amidst External Powers
The presence of other external powers complicates India’s engagement in Central Asia. Here’s a comparative analysis:
| Power | Interests | Impact on India |
|---|---|---|
| China | Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), energy resources, regional influence | BRI offers China significant economic leverage; India views BRI with skepticism due to sovereignty concerns. Ashgabat Agreement provides India an alternative connectivity route. |
| Russia | Security, regional influence, energy resources | Russia is a traditional power in the region; India maintains strong strategic ties with Russia. Cooperation on security issues is possible. |
| Pakistan | Regional influence, transit trade | Pakistan’s instability and its reluctance to provide transit access have historically hindered India’s engagement. Ashgabat Agreement circumvents Pakistan. |
| Turkey | Pan-Turkic influence, economic ties | Turkey’s growing influence presents a challenge to India’s interests. |
Challenges and Limitations
Despite its benefits, the Ashgabat Agreement faces challenges:
- Afghanistan’s Instability: The political situation in Afghanistan remains a major impediment to the full implementation of the agreement.
- Infrastructure Deficiencies: Developing adequate transport infrastructure requires significant investment.
- Geopolitical Rivalries: Competition among external powers could hinder regional cooperation.
- Iran Sanctions: US sanctions on Iran pose challenges to trade and investment.
Conclusion
India’s accession to the Ashgabat Agreement is a strategically significant move that enhances its connectivity to Central Asia and reduces its dependence on Pakistan for transit trade. While challenges remain, the agreement offers a viable pathway for India to expand its economic and geopolitical influence in the region. Successfully leveraging this agreement requires sustained diplomatic engagement, infrastructure development, and close cooperation with regional partners, particularly Iran and Afghanistan (when stability returns). India must proactively navigate the complex geopolitical landscape and counter the growing influence of competing powers to secure its long-term interests in Central Asia.
Answer Length
This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.