UPSC MainsGEOGRAPHY-PAPER-II201815 Marks
Q11.

Discuss the emerging geo-political scenario of Indian Ocean realm.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The answer should begin by defining the IOR and its strategic importance. It should then analyze the key actors involved – India, China, the US, and regional powers – and their respective interests. The response must discuss emerging trends like increasing militarization, competition for resources, and the impact of climate change. Finally, it should assess the implications for India and suggest potential strategies. A structured approach focusing on actors, trends, and implications is recommended.

Model Answer

0 min read

Introduction

The Indian Ocean Region (IOR), encompassing the area from the coasts of Africa to Australia and including the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and the Bay of Bengal, is increasingly recognized as the world’s most strategically important ocean. Historically a crucial trade route, the IOR is now witnessing a surge in geopolitical competition, driven by economic interests, resource security, and strategic positioning. Recent developments, such as China’s growing naval presence and increased engagement by other major powers, have transformed the IOR into a complex arena of influence. This essay will discuss the emerging geopolitical scenario of the Indian Ocean realm, analyzing the key players, prevailing trends, and their implications.

Key Actors and Their Interests

Several actors are shaping the geopolitical landscape of the IOR, each with distinct interests:

  • India: As the resident naval power, India aims to maintain regional stability, secure its sea lanes of communication (SLOCs), and counter Chinese influence. India’s ‘Neighborhood First’ policy and ‘SAGAR’ (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision underscore its commitment to maritime security cooperation.
  • China: China’s interests revolve around securing energy supplies, protecting its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, and expanding its naval presence. The establishment of its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017 signaled its growing ambition in the region.
  • United States: The US seeks to maintain freedom of navigation, counter terrorism, and contain China’s growing influence. It has strengthened its partnerships with countries like India, Australia, and Japan through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).
  • Regional Powers: Countries like Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Iran play significant roles, pursuing their own national interests and contributing to regional dynamics. Indonesia, for example, prioritizes maritime security and regional cooperation through ASEAN.

Emerging Trends in the IOR

Increasing Militarization

The IOR is witnessing a significant increase in military presence and naval exercises. China’s naval expansion, coupled with increased deployments by the US, India, and other nations, is contributing to a potential arms race. This militarization is driven by concerns over SLOC security, counter-terrorism efforts, and strategic competition.

Competition for Resources

The IOR is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas, and fisheries. Competition for access to these resources is intensifying, particularly between China and India. The control of key chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Malacca Strait, is crucial for securing energy supplies.

Rise of Non-Traditional Security Threats

Beyond traditional security concerns, the IOR faces growing non-traditional threats, including:

  • Piracy: While piracy has decreased in recent years, it remains a concern in certain areas, such as the Gulf of Aden.
  • Maritime Terrorism: The threat of maritime terrorism persists, particularly in the context of regional conflicts.
  • Illegal Fishing and Trafficking: Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing and human/drug trafficking pose significant challenges to maritime security.
  • Climate Change: Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and ocean acidification are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and creating new security risks.

Geopolitical Rivalry and Alliances

The IOR is becoming a key arena for geopolitical rivalry between major powers. The Quad, comprising India, the US, Japan, and Australia, is seen as a counterweight to China’s growing influence. China, in turn, is strengthening its partnerships with countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The increasing polarization of the region raises concerns about potential conflicts.

Implications for India

The evolving geopolitical scenario in the IOR has significant implications for India:

  • Security Challenges: India faces increased security challenges from China’s growing naval presence and potential disruptions to its SLOCs.
  • Economic Opportunities: The IOR offers significant economic opportunities for India, including access to resources, trade routes, and investment opportunities.
  • Regional Leadership: India has the potential to play a leading role in promoting regional stability and maritime security.
  • Need for Enhanced Capabilities: India needs to enhance its naval capabilities, strengthen its partnerships, and invest in maritime domain awareness to effectively address the challenges and opportunities in the IOR.
Challenge India's Response
Chinese Naval Expansion Strengthening naval capabilities, deepening strategic partnerships (e.g., Quad)
Maritime Terrorism Coastal security enhancements, intelligence sharing with regional partners
Climate Change Impacts Disaster management preparedness, promoting sustainable maritime practices

Conclusion

The Indian Ocean Region is undergoing a significant geopolitical transformation, characterized by increasing competition, militarization, and emerging security threats. India, as a key stakeholder, must proactively engage with regional partners, enhance its maritime capabilities, and promote a rules-based order to safeguard its interests and contribute to regional stability. A nuanced approach that balances strategic competition with cooperative engagement is crucial for navigating the complexities of the IOR and ensuring a peaceful and prosperous future for the region. The future of the IOR will be shaped by the interplay of these forces, demanding a proactive and adaptable Indian foreign policy.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

SLOCs
Sea Lanes of Communication – the maritime routes used for international trade and commerce.
Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)
The effective understanding of anything associated with the maritime domain that could impact security, safety, economy, or the environment.

Key Statistics

Approximately 55% of the world’s maritime trade passes through the Indian Ocean (Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2019 - knowledge cutoff)

Source: UNCTAD

The Indian Ocean holds approximately 64% of the world’s oil reserves and 20% of the world’s natural gas reserves (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2022 - knowledge cutoff)

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Examples

Djibouti Military Base

China’s establishment of a military base in Djibouti in 2017 is a prime example of its expanding military footprint in the IOR, raising concerns among other regional powers.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Malacca Strait?

The Malacca Strait is a narrow waterway between the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra, Indonesia. It is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world, and a significant portion of China’s trade passes through it, making it a critical chokepoint.

Topics Covered

International RelationsGeographyMaritime SecurityRegional PoliticsGeopolitics