UPSC MainsPOLITICAL-SCIENCE-INTERANATIONAL-RELATIONS-PAPER-II201815 Marks
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Q7.

Discuss the consequences of Trump's "America First" and Xi's "Chinese Dream" on World Politics.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of the foreign policy shifts under Trump and Xi, and their cascading effects on the global order. The answer should begin by defining "America First" and "Chinese Dream" and then analyze their consequences across various domains – economic, political, security, and multilateralism. A comparative approach highlighting both convergence and divergence in their impacts is crucial. Structure the answer into sections focusing on economic consequences, geopolitical shifts, impact on multilateral institutions, and finally, the emerging world order.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The post-Cold War era was largely defined by American unipolarity and a rising China integrated into the liberal international order. However, the presidencies of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping marked a significant departure from this status quo. Trump’s “America First” policy, prioritizing domestic interests and bilateral deals, and Xi’s “Chinese Dream” of national rejuvenation and a ‘community of common destiny’, fundamentally reshaped global politics. These doctrines, while distinct in their origins and ideologies, both challenged the existing international norms and institutions, leading to increased geopolitical competition and uncertainty. This answer will discuss the consequences of these policies on world politics, examining their impact on trade, security, and the global order.

Economic Consequences

Trump’s “America First” manifested primarily through protectionist trade policies, most notably the imposition of tariffs on goods from China, the EU, and other countries. This triggered trade wars, disrupting global supply chains and slowing economic growth. The US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017 further weakened multilateral trade frameworks. China, under Xi, responded with its own retaliatory tariffs and accelerated efforts to build alternative trade networks, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed in 2020.

  • Impact on Global Trade: Global trade volume growth slowed significantly during the US-China trade war (2018-2020).
  • Supply Chain Diversification: Companies began diversifying their supply chains away from China, leading to increased investment in countries like Vietnam and India.
  • Digital Economy Competition: Increased competition in the digital economy, with the US and China vying for dominance in areas like 5G and artificial intelligence.

Geopolitical Shifts

Both policies contributed to a shift in the global balance of power. Trump’s questioning of traditional alliances (NATO, US-South Korea alliance) and his withdrawal from international agreements (Paris Agreement, Iran Nuclear Deal) created a vacuum that China sought to fill. Xi’s “Chinese Dream” involved expanding China’s geopolitical influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aimed to build infrastructure and strengthen economic ties across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

The South China Sea became a major flashpoint, with China asserting its territorial claims and building military installations on disputed islands. This heightened tensions with the US and its allies in the region. Furthermore, China’s growing military capabilities and assertive foreign policy raised concerns about its intentions and its potential to challenge the US-led international order.

Impact on Multilateral Institutions

Trump’s administration actively undermined multilateral institutions, accusing them of being biased or ineffective. The US reduced its funding to the World Health Organization (WHO) and withdrew from UNESCO. This weakened the ability of these organizations to address global challenges. China, while benefiting from the US withdrawal, also sought to reform multilateral institutions to better reflect its interests. China increased its financial contributions to the UN and its agencies and promoted its own alternative institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

Institution US Approach (Trump) China Approach (Xi)
United Nations Selective engagement, criticism of bureaucracy Increased financial contributions, promotion of its agenda
World Trade Organization Criticism of dispute resolution mechanism, blocking appointments Advocating for reform, promoting its own trade initiatives
World Health Organization Withdrawal of funding, accusations of bias Increased funding and influence, promoting global health governance

The Emerging World Order

The consequences of “America First” and “Chinese Dream” have contributed to a more fragmented and multipolar world order. The US-China rivalry has become the defining feature of international politics, with implications for all other countries. The rise of regional powers, such as India and Russia, further complicates the picture. The liberal international order, based on rules, norms, and institutions, is under strain, and its future is uncertain. The increasing emphasis on national interests and strategic competition has made it more difficult to address global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and nuclear proliferation.

The concept of ‘decoupling’ – separating the US and Chinese economies – gained traction, though its full implementation remains complex and contested. The focus shifted towards ‘friend-shoring’ and ‘near-shoring’ – building resilient supply chains with trusted partners.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Trump’s “America First” and Xi’s “Chinese Dream” have profoundly altered the landscape of world politics. While distinct in their motivations, both policies have contributed to a more competitive, fragmented, and uncertain global order. The weakening of multilateral institutions, the intensification of US-China rivalry, and the rise of regional powers are all consequences of these shifts. The future of the international order will depend on how these powers navigate their differences and whether they can find common ground to address shared challenges. A return to greater cooperation and a reaffirmation of the principles of multilateralism are essential for maintaining global peace and prosperity.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Unipolarity
A distribution of world power in which one state has dominant power and influence.
Decoupling
The process of reducing economic interdependence between two countries, typically involving the separation of supply chains and trade flows.

Key Statistics

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows declined by 35% in 2020, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the US-China trade war.

Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report, 2021

China’s share of global trade increased from 9.1% in 2001 to 14.7% in 2021.

Source: World Trade Organization (WTO), 2022

Examples

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

China’s BRI, launched in 2013, is a massive infrastructure development project spanning over 150 countries, aiming to enhance connectivity and trade. It exemplifies the “Chinese Dream” of expanding China’s global influence.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Trump’s policies affect NATO?

Trump repeatedly criticized NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and questioned the value of the alliance, creating uncertainty about US commitment to collective security.

Topics Covered

International RelationsPolitical ScienceUS Foreign PolicyChina Foreign PolicyGlobal Order