UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I201920 Marks
Q23.

In the contemporary world, many countries are not following Kuznets' pattern of structural change. Give reasons.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of Simon Kuznets’ inverted U-shaped hypothesis and its limitations in the context of contemporary economic development. The answer should begin by explaining Kuznets’ curve, then detail the reasons why many countries are deviating from this pattern. Focus on factors like globalization, technological advancements, resource curse, political economy, and the role of services sector. Structure the answer by first defining the Kuznets curve, then listing and explaining the deviations, and finally providing examples.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Simon Kuznets, in the 1950s, proposed an inverted U-shaped relationship between income inequality and economic development. This ‘Kuznets curve’ suggested that inequality initially rises during the early stages of industrialization as labor shifts from the traditional agricultural sector to the modern industrial sector, but eventually declines as development progresses and welfare states emerge. However, in the contemporary world, many countries, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, are not following this predicted pattern, exhibiting persistent or even increasing levels of inequality despite significant economic growth. This deviation necessitates an examination of the factors disrupting the Kuznets’ pattern.

Understanding the Kuznets Curve

The Kuznets curve posits that in early stages of development, economic growth concentrates wealth in the hands of a few, leading to increased income inequality. As economies mature, factors like increased education, progressive taxation, and the expansion of social safety nets redistribute wealth, leading to a decline in inequality. This model was largely based on the historical experience of developed countries like the United States and the United Kingdom.

Reasons for Deviation from the Kuznets Pattern

1. Globalization and Increased Capital Mobility

Globalization has led to increased capital mobility, allowing capital to flow to countries with lower labor costs and weaker regulations. This has resulted in a ‘race to the bottom’ in wages and working conditions, exacerbating income inequality. Multinational corporations often prioritize profit maximization, leading to wage stagnation for workers in developed countries and exploitation of labor in developing countries.

2. Technological Advancements and Skill-Biased Technological Change

Technological advancements, particularly automation and artificial intelligence, have increased the demand for skilled labor while reducing the demand for unskilled labor. This ‘skill-biased technological change’ has widened the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers, contributing to rising inequality. The digital divide further exacerbates this issue, limiting access to education and opportunities for those without digital literacy.

3. The Rise of the Service Sector and Dualism

Many developing countries have experienced rapid growth in the service sector, but this growth has often been concentrated in high-skilled, high-paying jobs, creating a dualistic economy. A large informal sector persists, characterized by low wages, precarious employment, and limited social protection. This dualism prevents the benefits of growth from trickling down to the majority of the population.

4. Resource Curse and Rent-Seeking Behavior

Countries rich in natural resources often experience slower economic growth and higher levels of inequality due to the ‘resource curse’. The concentration of wealth in the hands of a few who control the resource sector, coupled with rent-seeking behavior and corruption, hinders diversification and inclusive growth. Examples include Nigeria and Venezuela.

5. Political and Institutional Factors

Weak institutions, corruption, and lack of political accountability can exacerbate inequality. Policies that favor the wealthy, such as regressive tax systems and inadequate social safety nets, can further widen the gap between the rich and the poor. Furthermore, lobbying by powerful interest groups can influence policy decisions in their favor, hindering equitable distribution of resources.

6. Decline of Labor Unions and Collective Bargaining

The decline of labor unions and collective bargaining power has weakened the ability of workers to negotiate for higher wages and better working conditions. This has contributed to wage stagnation and a decline in the labor share of income.

Country Specific Examples

Country Deviation from Kuznets Curve Key Factors
China Rapidly increasing inequality despite high growth Dualistic economy, rural-urban divide, state-led capitalism favoring coastal regions
India Persistent high levels of inequality Caste system, land ownership patterns, skill gaps, limited social mobility
Brazil High and persistent inequality Historical land concentration, unequal access to education, regressive tax system
South Africa Extremely high inequality Apartheid legacy, unequal land distribution, skill shortages, high unemployment

Conclusion

The deviation from Kuznets’ pattern in many contemporary economies highlights the limitations of a purely economic explanation for inequality. Factors like globalization, technological change, political institutions, and resource endowments play a crucial role in shaping income distribution. Addressing inequality requires a multi-faceted approach, including investments in education and skills development, progressive taxation, strengthening social safety nets, promoting inclusive institutions, and tackling corruption. Simply relying on economic growth to automatically reduce inequality is no longer a viable strategy.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Gini Coefficient
A measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It ranges from 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality).
Skill-Biased Technological Change
Refers to technological advancements that increase the relative demand for skilled labor compared to unskilled labor, leading to wage disparities.

Key Statistics

According to the World Bank (2023), the Gini coefficient for South Africa is 0.63, one of the highest in the world.

Source: World Bank, 2023

According to Oxfam (2023), the richest 1% own nearly two-thirds of all new wealth created since 2020.

Source: Oxfam, 2023

Examples

The East Asian Miracle

The rapid economic growth in East Asian economies like South Korea and Taiwan was accompanied by relatively equitable income distribution, demonstrating that development can be inclusive with appropriate policies.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Kuznets curve completely invalid?

Not entirely. The Kuznets curve provides a useful historical perspective, but its applicability to contemporary developing countries is limited due to the changing global economic landscape and the influence of factors not considered in the original model.

Topics Covered

EconomyDevelopmentEconomic DevelopmentStructural ChangeInequality