UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I20198 Marks
Q8.

Find out the multiplier formula for money supply change and then calculate the change in output if money supply changes by 510.

How to Approach

This question requires understanding of the money multiplier concept in macroeconomics. The approach should involve first stating the formula for the money multiplier, explaining its components (Reserve Ratio, Currency Ratio), and then applying the formula to calculate the change in output given the change in money supply. The answer should demonstrate a clear understanding of the relationship between money supply, the money multiplier, and aggregate output. A brief explanation of the assumptions underlying the multiplier is also beneficial.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The money supply plays a crucial role in influencing macroeconomic variables like national income and price levels. The relationship between changes in the money supply and changes in national income is governed by the money multiplier. This multiplier effect implies that an initial change in the money supply can lead to a larger change in aggregate output. Understanding this mechanism is vital for policymakers aiming to manage economic activity. The question asks us to determine the formula for the money multiplier and subsequently calculate the change in output resulting from a 510 unit change in the money supply.

The Money Multiplier Formula

The money multiplier (k) represents the ratio of the change in the money supply to the change in the monetary base. It determines how much the money supply expands for each unit increase in the monetary base. The formula for the money multiplier is:

k = (1 + Currency Ratio) / (Reserve Ratio + Currency Ratio)

Where:

  • Currency Ratio (c): The proportion of money held by the public as currency relative to deposits. It is calculated as Currency/Deposits.
  • Reserve Ratio (r): The fraction of deposits that banks are required to hold in reserve. It is determined by the central bank (RBI in India).

A simplified version, often used in introductory textbooks, assumes a zero currency ratio (people hold all money as deposits). In this case, the formula becomes:

k = 1/r

Calculating the Change in Output

The change in output (ΔY) is directly proportional to the change in the money supply (ΔM) and the money multiplier (k). The relationship is expressed as:

ΔY = k * ΔM

However, to apply this formula, we need values for the reserve ratio and the currency ratio. Since these values are not provided in the question, we will make a reasonable assumption. Let's assume:

  • Reserve Ratio (r) = 0.1 (10%)
  • Currency Ratio (c) = 0.2 (20%)

Using these assumptions, we can calculate the money multiplier:

k = (1 + 0.2) / (0.1 + 0.2) = 1.2 / 0.3 = 4

Now, we can calculate the change in output given a change in the money supply of 510:

ΔY = 4 * 510 = 2040

Therefore, the change in output is 2040 units.

Assumptions and Limitations

It's important to note that the multiplier effect relies on several assumptions:

  • Constant Price Level: The analysis assumes that prices remain constant. In reality, an increase in the money supply can lead to inflation, reducing the real impact on output.
  • Fixed Expectations: The model assumes that expectations about future inflation and interest rates remain stable.
  • Full Employment: The multiplier effect is most potent when the economy is operating below full employment. If the economy is already at full capacity, increased money supply may primarily lead to inflation.
  • Banking System Stability: The model assumes a stable banking system. Financial crises can disrupt the money creation process and reduce the effectiveness of the multiplier.

Furthermore, the actual multiplier effect can be influenced by factors like leakages (savings, taxes, imports) which reduce the amount of money circulating in the economy.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the money multiplier, calculated as (1 + Currency Ratio) / (Reserve Ratio + Currency Ratio), plays a pivotal role in determining the impact of changes in the money supply on aggregate output. Based on assumed values for the reserve and currency ratios, a 510 unit increase in the money supply would lead to a 2040 unit increase in output. However, it is crucial to remember that this is a simplified model and the actual impact can be affected by various real-world factors and assumptions. Policymakers must consider these limitations when using monetary policy to influence economic activity.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Monetary Base
The total amount of currency in circulation plus commercial banks' reserves held at the central bank. It is also known as high-powered money.
Liquidity Trap
A situation in which monetary policy becomes ineffective because interest rates are already near zero, and further injections of liquidity into the banking system fail to stimulate economic activity.

Key Statistics

As of March 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintains a Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of 4.5%.

Source: RBI website (as of knowledge cutoff)

India's currency in circulation increased by approximately 12.8% between 2022 and 2023.

Source: RBI Annual Report 2022-23 (as of knowledge cutoff)

Examples

Quantitative Easing (QE)

During the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England implemented QE programs, involving large-scale purchases of government bonds to increase the money supply and lower interest rates, aiming to stimulate economic activity.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between the money multiplier and the credit multiplier?

The money multiplier relates changes in the monetary base to changes in the money supply, while the credit multiplier relates changes in the monetary base to changes in commercial bank credit. The credit multiplier is generally smaller than the money multiplier because not all new deposits are lent out.

Topics Covered

EconomyMacroeconomicsMonetary PolicyMoney SupplyAggregate Demand