UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-II201920 Marks
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Q12.

Deceleration of Industrial Growth: 1960s-70s & 1990s

Explain the principal causes of deceleration in industrial growth during the mid 1960's to mid 1970's in India. Do you think that the reasons for the slowdown in industrial growth since the late 1990s are basically different from those of the earlier deceleration ? Answer with proper arguments.

How to Approach

This question requires a comparative analysis of two periods of industrial deceleration in India. The approach should involve first identifying the key causes of the slowdown in the mid-1960s to mid-1970s, focusing on the policy environment and external factors. Then, it should analyze the reasons for the slowdown since the late 1990s, highlighting differences and similarities with the earlier period. The answer should be structured chronologically, with a clear distinction between the two phases, and supported by data and policy references. A comparative table can be used to highlight the differences.

Model Answer

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Introduction

India’s industrial growth has been characterized by periods of acceleration and deceleration. Following independence, the initial decades witnessed a focus on import substitution and a strong public sector presence. However, industrial growth began to decelerate in the mid-1960s, a trend that continued into the mid-1970s. This period was marked by a ‘Hindu rate of growth’, characterized by low per capita income growth. More recently, since the late 1990s, another slowdown in industrial growth has been observed, prompting questions about its causes and whether they differ significantly from the earlier deceleration. This answer will analyze the principal causes of both periods of slowdown and compare their underlying factors.

Deceleration in Industrial Growth (Mid-1960s to Mid-1970s)

The period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s witnessed a significant deceleration in India’s industrial growth. Several factors contributed to this slowdown:

  • Licensing Raj: The stringent licensing requirements under the Industrial (Development and Regulation) Act, 1951, created significant bureaucratic hurdles for entrepreneurs. This led to delays, corruption, and a stifling of private investment.
  • Monopolistic Control: The concentration of economic power in the hands of a few business houses, coupled with restrictions on the expansion of existing firms, limited competition and innovation.
  • Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI): While initially intended to promote self-reliance, ISI led to inefficiencies, high costs, and a lack of export competitiveness. Indian industries were shielded from global competition, reducing the incentive to improve productivity.
  • Nationalization of Banks (1969): While aimed at social objectives, the nationalization of banks led to directed credit allocation, often based on political considerations rather than economic viability, hindering efficient capital allocation.
  • External Shocks: The Indo-Pak war of 1965 and the oil crisis of 1973 significantly impacted the Indian economy, leading to increased import costs and inflationary pressures.
  • Agricultural Distress: Poor agricultural performance in the mid-1960s led to reduced demand for industrial goods and a decline in rural incomes.

Deceleration in Industrial Growth (Late 1990s onwards)

Following the economic reforms of 1991, India experienced a period of accelerated industrial growth. However, this momentum slowed down again in the late 1990s and continued into the 2000s. The reasons for this slowdown are different from those of the earlier period:

  • Global Competition: Increased global competition, particularly from China, put pressure on Indian industries to improve efficiency and competitiveness.
  • Infrastructure Bottlenecks: Inadequate infrastructure, including power, transportation, and ports, hampered industrial production and increased costs.
  • Rigid Labor Laws: Restrictive labor laws made it difficult for firms to adjust to changing market conditions and hindered employment generation.
  • Slow Pace of Reforms: The pace of reforms slowed down after the initial wave of liberalization in the early 1990s, leaving several areas, such as land acquisition and environmental clearances, unresolved.
  • Financial Sector Issues: The Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) crisis in the banking sector constrained credit availability to industries.
  • Demand-Side Constraints: Slow growth in global demand and domestic consumption limited the growth of industrial output.

Comparative Analysis

The following table highlights the key differences between the two periods of industrial deceleration:

Feature Mid-1960s to Mid-1970s Late 1990s onwards
Dominant Factor Domestic Policy & Regulation Global Factors & Infrastructure
Key Policies Licensing Raj, ISI, Nationalization Liberalization, Globalization
Nature of Constraints Supply-side constraints due to regulation Demand-side constraints & infrastructure bottlenecks
Role of External Shocks Significant impact (wars, oil crisis) Significant impact (global recessions, trade wars)
Focus of Intervention State-led development Market-oriented reforms

While both periods witnessed industrial deceleration, the underlying causes were fundamentally different. The earlier slowdown was primarily driven by restrictive domestic policies and regulations that stifled private initiative and innovation. The more recent slowdown, however, is largely attributable to increased global competition, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the slow pace of second-generation reforms. Although external shocks played a role in both periods, their impact was different – in the 1960s/70s they exacerbated existing domestic problems, while in the late 1990s/2000s they created new challenges for Indian industries.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the causes of industrial deceleration in India have evolved significantly over time. The mid-1960s to mid-1970s slowdown was a consequence of inward-looking policies and excessive state control, while the slowdown since the late 1990s is rooted in the challenges of globalization and the need for sustained structural reforms. Addressing the current challenges requires a renewed focus on improving infrastructure, streamlining regulations, enhancing labor market flexibility, and promoting innovation to enhance India’s industrial competitiveness in the global arena.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI)
A trade and economic policy advocating for the replacement of foreign imports with domestically produced goods, typically through tariffs and other protectionist measures.
Non-Performing Assets (NPAs)
Loans or advances for which principal or interest payment remained overdue for a period of 90 days or more.

Key Statistics

India's industrial growth rate averaged around 3.5% during the mid-1960s to mid-1970s, often referred to as the "Hindu rate of growth."

Source: Planning Commission Reports (Knowledge cutoff 2023)

The share of manufacturing in India’s GDP has remained relatively stagnant, hovering around 15-17% for several decades, indicating a persistent challenge in scaling up the industrial sector.

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), 2022-23

Examples

The Maruti Udyog Case

The establishment of Maruti Udyog in 1981, a joint venture with Suzuki, demonstrated the potential benefits of liberalization and foreign collaboration in the automotive industry, contrasting with the earlier restrictions on foreign investment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the 'Licensing Raj'?

The 'Licensing Raj' was a system of extensive government licensing and permits required for businesses to operate in India from the 1950s to the 1990s. It created significant bureaucratic delays and opportunities for corruption, hindering industrial growth.

Topics Covered

EconomyHistoryIndustrial PolicyEconomic HistoryIndian Economy