UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-II202010 Marks
Q14.

Do you think that Indian currency is fully convertible? Explain.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of currency convertibility and its different stages. The answer should define currency convertibility, explain the different types (full vs. partial), and then assess the Indian Rupee's status against these benchmarks. It should cover the regulations governing capital account convertibility, the reasons for the current restrictions, and the potential benefits and risks of full convertibility. A balanced approach acknowledging both sides is crucial. The structure will be: Introduction, stages of convertibility, India’s current status, arguments for and against full convertibility, and conclusion.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Currency convertibility refers to the ease with which a country’s currency can be exchanged for other currencies. It’s a crucial aspect of a country’s integration into the global economy. While a fully convertible currency facilitates international trade and investment, it also exposes the economy to external shocks. As of late 2023, India operates under a managed float exchange rate regime with some capital controls. The question of whether the Indian Rupee is ‘fully convertible’ is complex, requiring an examination of the extent to which restrictions on currency exchange have been lifted, particularly concerning capital account transactions.

Understanding Currency Convertibility

Currency convertibility exists on a spectrum. It’s generally categorized into three stages:

  • Stage 1: Current Account Convertibility: This allows exchange of currency for trade in goods and services. India achieved current account convertibility in 1994, as part of the broader economic liberalization reforms initiated in 1991.
  • Stage 2: Limited Capital Account Convertibility: This permits limited exchange of currency for certain capital account transactions, such as foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment within specified limits. India has made significant progress in this stage, but restrictions remain.
  • Stage 3: Full Capital Account Convertibility: This allows unrestricted flow of capital in and out of the country, with no limitations on the amount or type of capital transactions. This is the most liberalized form of convertibility.

India’s Current Status: Partially Convertible

Currently, the Indian Rupee is not fully convertible. While significant liberalization has occurred, several restrictions remain on capital account transactions. These include:

  • Limits on Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI): There are limits on the amount of investment foreign entities can make in Indian equity and debt markets.
  • Restrictions on Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI): Indian companies face limitations on the amount they can invest abroad.
  • Capital Controls on Resident Individuals: There are limits on the amount of money resident Indians can remit abroad under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS). As of October 2023, the limit is USD 250,000 per financial year.
  • Restrictions on External Commercial Borrowings (ECB): Regulations govern the amount and terms of borrowing from foreign sources.

These controls are managed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has the authority to regulate foreign exchange transactions under the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), 1999.

Arguments For Full Convertibility

  • Increased Capital Inflows: Full convertibility could attract larger inflows of foreign capital, boosting economic growth.
  • Enhanced Efficiency of Capital Allocation: Unrestricted capital flows would allow capital to move to its most productive uses, improving economic efficiency.
  • Reduced Transaction Costs: Eliminating exchange controls would lower the costs of international transactions.
  • Greater Integration with Global Financial Markets: Full convertibility would integrate India more fully into the global financial system.

Arguments Against Full Convertibility

  • Volatility and Exchange Rate Risk: Unrestricted capital flows can lead to greater volatility in the exchange rate, potentially destabilizing the economy. The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 serves as a cautionary tale.
  • Hot Money Flows: Full convertibility could attract speculative ‘hot money’ flows, which can quickly reverse and create financial instability.
  • Loss of Monetary Policy Autonomy: Large capital inflows can complicate monetary policy, making it difficult for the RBI to control inflation.
  • Potential for Capital Flight: In times of economic or political uncertainty, full convertibility could facilitate large-scale capital flight, exacerbating the crisis.

The Tarapore Committee Reports

Several committees have examined the issue of capital account convertibility in India. The most notable are the Tarapore Committee reports (1997 and 2006). These committees recommended a phased approach to capital account liberalization, contingent on meeting certain macroeconomic conditions, such as a fiscal deficit of less than 3.5% of GDP and inflation below 5%. These conditions have not been consistently met, leading to a cautious approach by the RBI.

Committee Year Key Recommendations
Tarapore Committee I 1997 Phased liberalization of capital account, contingent on macroeconomic stability.
Tarapore Committee II 2006 Revised macroeconomic conditions for liberalization, emphasizing fiscal consolidation and inflation control.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Indian Rupee is currently partially convertible, with significant restrictions remaining on capital account transactions. While full convertibility offers potential benefits in terms of increased capital inflows and economic efficiency, it also poses risks to macroeconomic stability. Given India’s unique economic and political context, a cautious and phased approach to capital account liberalization, guided by macroeconomic fundamentals and prudent regulation, remains the most appropriate strategy. The RBI’s continued vigilance and careful management of capital flows are crucial for mitigating the risks associated with greater financial integration.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

FEMA
The Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999, is an Act of the Parliament of India to consolidate and amend the law relating to foreign exchange with the objective of facilitating external trade and payments and for the development and regulation of foreign exchange market in India.
Hot Money
Hot money refers to capital that moves across borders in search of the highest short-term interest rates. It is considered speculative and can be quickly withdrawn, potentially causing financial instability.

Key Statistics

India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 596.98 billion as of November 17, 2023.

Source: Reserve Bank of India

FDI inflows into India increased to USD 84.83 billion in FY23 (April-March) from USD 83.67 billion in FY22.

Source: Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT)

Examples

Malaysia’s Experience

Malaysia’s experience in 1997-98 during the Asian Financial Crisis, where it imposed capital controls to stem capital flight, highlights the potential need for such measures in emerging economies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS)?

The LRS allows resident individuals to remit a certain amount of money abroad for permissible current or capital account transactions. The current limit is USD 250,000 per financial year.

Topics Covered

EconomyInternational RelationsMonetary PolicyExchange RateCapital Account