UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I202110 Marks150 Words
Q3.

Examine the relationship between business cycle and changes in autonomous expenditure.

How to Approach

This question requires an understanding of the Keynesian model of the economy and the multiplier effect. The answer should define the business cycle and autonomous expenditure, then explain how changes in the latter drive fluctuations in the former. Focus on the multiplier mechanism and its impact on aggregate demand. Structure the answer by first defining key terms, then explaining the relationship, and finally, providing examples. A diagram illustrating the multiplier effect would be beneficial.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The business cycle, characterized by alternating periods of economic expansion and contraction, is a fundamental feature of market economies. These fluctuations in national income and employment are significantly influenced by changes in aggregate demand. A key driver of aggregate demand is autonomous expenditure – spending that is independent of income levels. Understanding the relationship between these two is crucial for effective macroeconomic policy formulation. This answer will examine how shifts in autonomous expenditure initiate and amplify the business cycle through the multiplier effect.

Understanding Key Concepts

Business Cycle: The business cycle refers to the fluctuations in economic activity that an economy experiences over a period of time. These fluctuations typically involve stages of expansion, peak, recession, and trough. These cycles are not regular in length or intensity.

Autonomous Expenditure: Autonomous expenditure represents the components of aggregate demand that are not directly influenced by the current level of national income. These include investment (I), government spending (G), and net exports (X-M). Changes in these components initiate shifts in the aggregate demand curve.

The Relationship: Autonomous Expenditure and the Business Cycle

Changes in autonomous expenditure are a primary driver of fluctuations in the business cycle. An increase in autonomous expenditure, such as increased government spending or business investment, leads to an initial increase in aggregate demand. However, the impact on national income is magnified through the multiplier effect.

The multiplier effect states that an initial change in autonomous expenditure leads to a larger change in national income. This is because the initial spending creates income for others, who then spend a portion of that income, creating further income, and so on. The size of the multiplier (k) is determined by the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). The formula is: k = 1 / (1 - MPC).

Illustrative Example

Suppose the MPC is 0.8. This means that for every additional rupee of income, individuals spend 80 paise and save 20 paise. If the government increases spending by ₹100 crore (autonomous expenditure), the initial increase in aggregate demand is ₹100 crore. This leads to an increase in income of ₹100 crore. Those who receive this income spend 80% (₹80 crore), which becomes income for others. This process continues, with each round of spending being 80% of the previous round. The total increase in national income will be:

₹100 + ₹80 + ₹64 + ... = ₹100 / (1 - 0.8) = ₹500 crore

Therefore, a ₹100 crore increase in government spending leads to a ₹500 crore increase in national income.

Stages of the Business Cycle and Autonomous Expenditure

  • Expansion: During an expansion, autonomous expenditure typically increases due to rising business confidence, increased investment, and potentially expansionary fiscal policy.
  • Peak: As the economy reaches its peak, autonomous expenditure may begin to level off or even decline, signaling a potential slowdown.
  • Recession: A decline in autonomous expenditure, often triggered by a fall in investment or consumer confidence, can initiate a recession.
  • Trough: During a trough, government intervention through increased autonomous expenditure (fiscal stimulus) can help to jumpstart the economy and initiate a recovery.

Limitations and Considerations

While autonomous expenditure is a significant driver, other factors also influence the business cycle, including monetary policy, supply shocks, and global economic conditions. The effectiveness of fiscal policy (changes in autonomous expenditure) can be limited by factors such as crowding out and time lags.

Conclusion

In conclusion, changes in autonomous expenditure play a crucial role in initiating and amplifying the business cycle. The multiplier effect demonstrates how an initial change in autonomous spending can have a magnified impact on national income. Understanding this relationship is vital for policymakers seeking to stabilize the economy and mitigate the effects of economic fluctuations. However, it’s important to acknowledge that autonomous expenditure is not the sole determinant of the business cycle and that other factors also contribute to its dynamics.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)
The proportion of an increase in disposable income that an individual is likely to spend rather than save.
Aggregate Demand
The total demand for goods and services in an economy at a given price level and time period. It is represented as AD = C + I + G + (X-M), where C is consumption, I is investment, G is government spending, and (X-M) is net exports.

Key Statistics

India's GDP growth rate was 7.2% in FY23 (as per the National Statistical Office, Provisional Estimate). This growth was partly driven by increased government capital expenditure.

Source: National Statistical Office, Provisional Estimate, FY23

In 2023, the Indian government announced a capital expenditure outlay of ₹10 lakh crore (approximately $120 billion) for infrastructure development, representing a significant increase from previous years.

Source: Union Budget 2023-24

Examples

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis

The crisis was triggered by a decline in investment (autonomous expenditure) in the US housing market. This led to a sharp contraction in aggregate demand and a global recession.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between autonomous and induced expenditure?

Autonomous expenditure is independent of income, while induced expenditure is directly related to income levels. Consumption is a key example of induced expenditure.

Topics Covered

EconomicsMacroeconomicsBusiness CyclesAggregate DemandEconomic Fluctuations