UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II20215 Marks
Q5.

What is Fisher's ideal index? Why is it called ideal ? Describe the steps involved in the computation of Fisher's ideal index number.

How to Approach

This question requires a detailed understanding of index numbers, specifically Fisher's Ideal Index. The approach should involve defining index numbers, explaining the limitations of other index numbers (Laspeyres and Paasche), then defining and explaining Fisher's Ideal Index, and finally detailing the steps for its computation. The answer should emphasize why it's considered 'ideal' by overcoming the shortcomings of other methods. A tabular representation of the formula would be beneficial.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Index numbers are statistical measures designed to show changes in a variable or group of variables over time or between different entities. They are crucial tools in economic analysis, providing insights into inflation, economic growth, and changes in living standards. While several methods exist for constructing index numbers, such as Laspeyres and Paasche, they suffer from certain biases. Fisher’s Ideal Index, developed by Irving Fisher, attempts to overcome these limitations by providing a more accurate and reliable measure of price or quantity changes. It is considered a significant advancement in the field of index number construction.

Understanding Index Numbers

An index number is a single number that represents the rate of change of a variable. It’s expressed as a percentage of a base period. Common types include price index numbers (measuring changes in prices) and quantity index numbers (measuring changes in quantities).

Limitations of Laspeyres and Paasche Index Numbers

Laspeyres Index uses base period quantities as weights, leading to upward bias in price changes (overstating inflation) as it doesn’t account for substitution effects. Paasche Index uses current period quantities as weights, resulting in a downward bias (understating inflation) as it favors cheaper goods consumed in the current period. These biases arise because consumer behavior changes in response to price fluctuations.

Fisher’s Ideal Index: Definition and Significance

Fisher’s Ideal Index is the geometric mean of Laspeyres and Paasche Index Numbers. It attempts to mitigate the biases inherent in both Laspeyres and Paasche indices by averaging their results. The formula is:

Fisher’s Ideal Index = √(Laspeyres Index * Paasche Index)

It is called ‘ideal’ because it satisfies two important properties:

  • Time Reversal Test: If we interchange the base and current periods, the product of the two index numbers should be equal to 100.
  • Factor Reversal Test: The product of the price index and the quantity index should be equal to the value index.

Steps Involved in the Computation of Fisher’s Ideal Index

  1. Collect Price and Quantity Data: Gather price and quantity data for the base period and the current period for all the goods and services included in the index.
  2. Calculate Laspeyres Index: Compute the Laspeyres Index using the formula:
    Laspeyres Index = ∑(P1Q0) / ∑(P0Q0)
    where P1 is the current period price, Q0 is the base period quantity, P0 is the base period price.
  3. Calculate Paasche Index: Compute the Paasche Index using the formula:
    Paasche Index = ∑(P1Q1) / ∑(P0Q1)
    where P1 is the current period price, Q1 is the current period quantity, P0 is the base period price.
  4. Calculate Fisher’s Ideal Index: Calculate the geometric mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices:
    Fisher’s Ideal Index = √(Laspeyres Index * Paasche Index)

Illustrative Example

Let's consider a basket of two goods: Apples and Bananas.

Commodity Base Period (P0, Q0) Current Period (P1, Q1)
Apples Price: ₹50, Quantity: 10 Price: ₹60, Quantity: 12
Bananas Price: ₹20, Quantity: 20 Price: ₹25, Quantity: 25

Calculating Laspeyres, Paasche, and Fisher’s Index would demonstrate the process. (Detailed calculations omitted for brevity, but would be included in a full answer).

Applications of Fisher’s Ideal Index

  • Measuring Inflation: Used by statistical agencies to track changes in the general price level.
  • Economic Analysis: Provides a more accurate measure of economic growth and changes in living standards.
  • International Comparisons: Facilitates comparisons of price levels and economic performance across countries.

Conclusion

Fisher’s Ideal Index represents a significant improvement over earlier index number methods by mitigating the biases inherent in Laspeyres and Paasche indices. Its adherence to the time reversal and factor reversal tests contributes to its reliability and accuracy. While computationally more complex, its benefits in providing a more realistic measure of price and quantity changes make it a preferred choice for economic analysis and policy-making. Further research continues to refine index number methodologies, but Fisher’s Ideal Index remains a cornerstone in the field.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Geometric Mean
The geometric mean is a type of average that indicates the central tendency or typical value of a set of numbers by using the product of their values. It is particularly useful when dealing with rates of change or percentages.
Base Period
The base period is the reference period against which changes in a variable are measured in an index number. It is typically a normal year, free from unusual events that could distort the index.

Key Statistics

India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated using a modified Laspeyres index, with base year 2012=100. (As of knowledge cutoff - 2023)

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) uses CPI and WPI data to formulate monetary policy, with inflation targets set around 4% with a tolerance band of +/- 2%. (As of knowledge cutoff - 2023)

Source: Reserve Bank of India

Examples

Housing Price Index

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, used to track changes in U.S. housing prices, utilize a weighted average of repeat sales, similar in concept to index number construction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the limitations of Fisher’s Ideal Index?

While considered ideal, Fisher’s Index is more complex to compute than Laspeyres or Paasche. It also requires more data, and the accuracy still depends on the quality and representativeness of the data used.

Topics Covered

EconomicsStatisticsIndex NumbersPrice IndexQuantity Index