UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II202110 Marks
Q1.

Statistical Hypothesis Testing: Local Workers Income

The mean annual income of workers in a company is ₹ 5,000 with a standard deviation of ₹ 1,200. It is suspected that local workers have higher than the average income. A sample of 144 local workers is drawn and their sample mean income is found to be ₹5,500. Can it be said that local workers have significantly higher income than the total population ? (Use a = 0.05)

How to Approach

This question tests the application of statistical hypothesis testing. The approach should involve formulating null and alternative hypotheses, calculating the test statistic (z-score), determining the critical value based on the significance level (alpha = 0.05), and then comparing the test statistic with the critical value to make a decision. The answer should clearly demonstrate the steps involved in hypothesis testing and provide a reasoned conclusion. Focus on the logic of the test and the interpretation of the results.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Hypothesis testing is a crucial statistical method used to determine whether there is enough evidence to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis. In organizational settings, it’s frequently employed to assess differences between groups, such as comparing the income levels of different employee segments. The question presents a scenario where we need to determine if the income of local workers is significantly higher than the average income of all workers in the company. This requires a one-tailed z-test, given the large sample size and known population standard deviation.

Formulating Hypotheses

First, we need to define our null and alternative hypotheses:

  • Null Hypothesis (H0): The mean income of local workers is equal to the mean income of all workers. (μlocal = μtotal = ₹5,000)
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The mean income of local workers is greater than the mean income of all workers. (μlocal > μtotal = ₹5,000)

Calculating the Test Statistic (Z-score)

The z-score is calculated using the following formula:

Z = (x̄ - μ) / (σ / √n)

Where:

  • x̄ = Sample mean income of local workers (₹5,500)
  • μ = Population mean income (₹5,000)
  • σ = Population standard deviation (₹1,200)
  • n = Sample size (144)

Plugging in the values:

Z = (5500 - 5000) / (1200 / √144) = 500 / (1200 / 12) = 500 / 100 = 5

Determining the Critical Value

Given the significance level (α) is 0.05 and it’s a one-tailed test (we are only interested in whether the local workers’ income is *higher*), we need to find the critical z-value. Using a standard z-table or statistical software, the critical z-value for α = 0.05 (one-tailed) is approximately 1.645.

Decision Rule

We will reject the null hypothesis if the calculated z-score is greater than the critical z-value.

Comparing the Test Statistic and Critical Value

Our calculated z-score is 5, and the critical z-value is 1.645. Since 5 > 1.645, we reject the null hypothesis.

Conclusion

Based on the hypothesis test, we can conclude that there is statistically significant evidence at the 0.05 significance level to suggest that the mean income of local workers is significantly higher than the mean income of all workers in the company.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the statistical analysis strongly supports the suspicion that local workers have a higher average income than the overall workforce. The calculated z-score of 5 significantly exceeds the critical value of 1.645, leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis. This finding has implications for workforce management, potentially indicating localized pay scales or skill premiums. Further investigation into the factors contributing to this income disparity could be beneficial for the company.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Null Hypothesis
A statement about a population parameter that is assumed to be true unless there is sufficient evidence to reject it. It represents the status quo or a default assumption.
Significance Level (α)
The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. Commonly set at 0.05, meaning there is a 5% risk of making a Type I error (false positive).

Key Statistics

According to the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) 78th round (2020-21), the average monthly salary of regular wage/salaried employees in India was ₹16,500.

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India

The gender pay gap in India, as of 2023, is estimated to be around 19%, meaning women earn approximately 81% of what men earn for similar work.

Source: World Economic Forum's Global Gender Gap Report 2023

Examples

A/B Testing in Marketing

Marketing teams frequently use hypothesis testing (A/B testing) to compare the effectiveness of different advertising campaigns. They formulate a null hypothesis (no difference in click-through rates) and an alternative hypothesis (one campaign has a higher click-through rate). Statistical tests are then used to determine if the observed difference is statistically significant.

Drug Trial Analysis

Pharmaceutical companies use hypothesis testing to determine if a new drug is more effective than a placebo. The null hypothesis is that the drug has no effect, and the alternative hypothesis is that it does. Clinical trials are designed to collect data that can be analyzed using statistical tests to assess the drug's efficacy.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a Type I error?

A Type I error occurs when we reject the null hypothesis when it is actually true. This is also known as a false positive. The probability of making a Type I error is equal to the significance level (α).

What is a Type II error?

A Type II error occurs when we fail to reject the null hypothesis when it is actually false. This is also known as a false negative. The probability of making a Type II error is denoted by β.

Topics Covered

StatisticsEconomicsHypothesis TestingMeanStandard DeviationSample