Model Answer
0 min readIntroduction
The swift takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban in August 2021 dramatically altered the regional security landscape. For India, Afghanistan has historically been a crucial element in its extended neighbourhood policy, marked by significant development assistance and strategic partnerships. The Taliban’s return to power presents a complex set of challenges to India’s long-standing strategic interests, ranging from concerns over the resurgence of terrorism to the potential disruption of regional connectivity projects and the humanitarian crisis unfolding within Afghanistan. This necessitates a reassessment of India’s approach towards the country, balancing engagement with pragmatic caution.
Impact on India’s Strategic Interests
The Taliban takeover has multifaceted implications for India’s strategic interests, impacting several key areas:
1. Security Concerns
- Resurgence of Terrorism: A Taliban-led Afghanistan is perceived to provide safe haven to anti-India terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). The presence of these groups poses a direct threat to India’s internal security, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir.
- Radicalization: The Taliban’s ideology could potentially inspire radicalization within India, especially among marginalized communities.
- Cross-Border Terrorism: Increased instability in Afghanistan could lead to a rise in cross-border terrorism, exploiting the porous border with Pakistan.
2. Regional Connectivity and Economic Interests
- Disruption of Trade Routes: India had invested heavily in infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, including the Chabahar Port (Iran) – Afghanistan route, aimed at bypassing Pakistan for trade. The Taliban’s rule has disrupted these projects, hindering India’s access to Central Asian markets.
- TAPI Pipeline: The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project, crucial for India’s energy security, faces significant uncertainty due to the unstable security situation in Afghanistan.
- Investment Losses: India’s substantial investments in Afghanistan’s development – estimated at over $3 billion (as of 2020) – are at risk.
3. Political and Diplomatic Implications
- Loss of Influence: India’s close ties with the previous Afghan government have diminished, reducing its political influence in the country.
- Regional Geopolitics: The Taliban’s rise has strengthened Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan, potentially altering the regional power balance to India’s disadvantage.
- Humanitarian Crisis: The unfolding humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, with widespread poverty and food insecurity, poses a challenge to India’s humanitarian diplomacy and requires careful consideration of aid delivery mechanisms.
4. Impact on Regional Stability
| Area | Impact |
|---|---|
| Pakistan | Increased influence and potential for supporting anti-India elements. |
| China | Opportunities for expanding its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Afghanistan. |
| Iran | Concerns over potential spillover of instability and sectarian violence. |
| Central Asian Republics | Increased security concerns related to terrorism and radicalization. |
India’s Response: India has adopted a cautious approach, focusing on providing humanitarian assistance while engaging with the Taliban regime pragmatically. This includes maintaining diplomatic contacts, advocating for an inclusive government, and ensuring the safety of Indian nationals and interests. India is also working with regional partners to address the security challenges posed by the situation.
Conclusion
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan presents a complex and evolving challenge to India’s strategic interests. While the situation necessitates a pragmatic and cautious approach, India must prioritize its security concerns, safeguard its economic investments, and actively engage with regional partners to promote stability and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorism. A long-term strategy focused on humanitarian assistance, diplomatic engagement, and regional cooperation is crucial for mitigating the risks and maximizing opportunities in the new geopolitical landscape.
Answer Length
This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.