UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I202215 Marks
Q20.

What do you mean by the warranted rate of growth? Explain the knife edge instability problem in Harrod's growth model.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of Harrod-Domar growth model, specifically focusing on the concept of the warranted rate of growth and the inherent instability it predicts. The answer should begin by defining the warranted rate of growth and its determinants. Then, it should explain the knife-edge problem, illustrating how small deviations from the warranted rate can lead to either stagnation or runaway growth. A clear explanation of the assumptions underlying the model is crucial. Structure the answer by first defining the warranted rate, then explaining the knife-edge problem, and finally, briefly discussing the limitations of the model.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The Harrod-Domar model, a cornerstone of post-Keynesian growth theory developed in the 1940s, attempts to explain the determinants of long-run economic growth. Central to this model is the concept of the ‘warranted rate of growth’ – the rate of growth that allows the economy to maintain full employment and price stability. However, the model also highlights a significant problem: ‘knife-edge instability’. This implies that achieving and sustaining a stable growth path is exceptionally difficult, as the actual rate of growth needs to precisely match the warranted rate. This answer will delve into the meaning of the warranted rate of growth and comprehensively explain the knife-edge instability problem inherent in Harrod’s growth model.

The Warranted Rate of Growth

The warranted rate of growth (gw) is the rate of growth of capital stock that is consistent with maintaining full employment and stable prices. It is determined by the savings ratio (s) and the capital-output ratio (v). Mathematically, it is represented as: gw = s/v. Here, 's' represents the proportion of income saved and invested, and 'v' represents the amount of capital required to produce one unit of output. Therefore, a higher savings ratio or a lower capital-output ratio will lead to a higher warranted rate of growth.

Several factors influence the warranted rate of growth:

  • Savings Rate (s): A higher propensity to save leads to more investment and a higher warranted rate.
  • Capital-Output Ratio (v): Technological advancements that reduce the capital needed for each unit of output (lower v) increase the warranted rate.
  • Demographic Changes: Changes in the size and age structure of the population can affect savings and investment patterns.

The Knife-Edge Instability Problem

The knife-edge problem arises from the model’s assumption that the actual rate of growth (ga) must equal the warranted rate of growth (gw) to maintain full employment. If ga deviates from gw, the economy faces either unemployment or inflation.

Let's consider two scenarios:

  • Actual Growth Exceeds Warranted Growth (ga > gw): If the actual rate of growth is higher than the warranted rate, investment demand will exceed the supply of savings. This leads to rising prices (inflation) as firms bid up the cost of capital. The increased prices reduce the real value of capital, increasing the capital-output ratio (v). This, in turn, lowers the warranted rate of growth, eventually bringing it down to meet the actual rate, but only after a period of inflation.
  • Actual Growth Falls Short of Warranted Growth (ga < gw): Conversely, if the actual rate of growth is lower than the warranted rate, savings will exceed investment demand. This leads to a fall in prices (deflation) and unused capacity. The decreased prices reduce the profitability of investment, increasing the capital-output ratio (v). This raises the warranted rate of growth, eventually bringing it up to meet the actual rate, but only after a period of unemployment.

The ‘knife-edge’ refers to the precarious balance required. The economy is constantly teetering on the edge of either inflation or deflation, with even small deviations from the warranted rate triggering significant adjustments. The model suggests that maintaining a stable growth path is extremely difficult, requiring precise coordination between savings and investment.

Assumptions and Limitations

The Harrod-Domar model relies on several simplifying assumptions:

  • Fixed Capital-Output Ratio (v): The model assumes a constant capital-output ratio, which is unrealistic in the long run due to technological progress.
  • Constant Savings Rate (s): The savings rate is assumed to be fixed, ignoring the influence of income distribution and other factors.
  • No Technological Progress: The model doesn’t explicitly account for technological advancements, which can significantly alter the growth process.
  • Closed Economy: The model assumes a closed economy, neglecting the impact of international trade and capital flows.

These limitations mean that the knife-edge instability is likely overstated in reality. Modern growth models, such as the Solow-Swan model, incorporate technological progress and other factors to provide a more nuanced and stable view of long-run growth.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the warranted rate of growth is a crucial concept in Harrod-Domar’s growth model, representing the growth rate consistent with full employment. However, the model’s inherent knife-edge instability highlights the difficulty of achieving and maintaining a stable growth path due to the sensitive relationship between actual and warranted growth rates. While the model’s assumptions are restrictive and its predictions somewhat pessimistic, it remains a valuable contribution to growth theory, emphasizing the importance of savings, investment, and capital efficiency in driving long-run economic development. Modern growth models have built upon this foundation, addressing some of its limitations to provide a more comprehensive understanding of economic growth.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Capital-Output Ratio
The capital-output ratio (v) is a measure of the amount of capital required to produce one unit of output. It is calculated as total capital stock divided by total output.
Actual Rate of Growth
The actual rate of growth (ga) refers to the observed rate at which the economy's capital stock or output is increasing in a given period.

Key Statistics

India's Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP was 31% in 2022-23 (Provisional Estimates). This indicates the level of investment in the economy.

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, 2023

India's average savings rate as a percentage of GDP was around 30% between 2010-2020 (RBI data). This rate has shown some fluctuations in recent years.

Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI), various publications (knowledge cutoff 2023)

Examples

Post-War Japan

Japan’s rapid economic growth in the post-World War II period (the “Japanese economic miracle”) was partly attributed to high savings rates and efficient capital accumulation, aligning with the principles of the Harrod-Domar model. However, it also benefited from technological adoption and strategic industrial policies.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the Harrod-Domar model still have relevance today?

While the model’s strict assumptions limit its direct applicability, its core insights about the importance of savings, investment, and capital efficiency remain relevant for understanding economic growth, particularly in developing countries.

Topics Covered

EconomicsGrowth TheoryEconomic GrowthInvestmentCapital Accumulation