UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II202210 Marks
Q4.

Police Shooting Test: Training Effectiveness Analysis

Eleven police personnel were given a test in shooting. Further they were given a month's training and at the end of it a second test of equal difficulty was conducted. The table below gives the marks awarded in both the tests. Do these marks give evidence that the training has benefitted the police personnel?

How to Approach

This question requires a statistical analysis to determine if the training program was effective. The approach involves calculating descriptive statistics (mean, median, etc.) for both tests, then employing a paired t-test to assess the statistical significance of the difference in scores. The answer should clearly state the hypothesis, the test used, the results, and a conclusion based on the statistical evidence. Focus on demonstrating understanding of statistical inference and its application to a real-world scenario.

Model Answer

0 min read

Introduction

Performance evaluation is a crucial aspect of organizational development, particularly within law enforcement agencies. Training programs are implemented to enhance skills and improve performance, but their effectiveness must be rigorously assessed. Statistical methods provide a systematic way to determine whether observed improvements are due to the training or simply due to chance. This question presents a scenario where the shooting scores of police personnel were recorded before and after a training program, requiring us to analyze the data to ascertain if the training had a statistically significant positive impact on their performance. The core principle here is to move beyond subjective impressions and rely on objective data analysis.

Understanding the Problem & Hypothesis

The problem at hand is to determine if a month-long shooting training program improved the shooting skills of eleven police personnel. We can formulate the following hypotheses:

  • Null Hypothesis (H0): The training program had no effect on the shooting scores. (μ1 = μ2, where μ1 is the mean score before training and μ2 is the mean score after training).
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The training program improved the shooting scores. (μ1 < μ2). This is a one-tailed test.

Data Analysis

Let's assume the following marks were awarded (this data is needed to proceed, as it wasn't provided in the question. We will create sample data for demonstration):

Personnel Test 1 (Before Training) Test 2 (After Training) Difference (Test 2 - Test 1)
1 65 75 10
2 70 80 10
3 55 60 5
4 80 85 5
5 60 70 10
6 75 80 5
7 50 65 15
8 85 90 5
9 65 70 5
10 70 75 5
11 55 60 5

To determine if the training benefitted the personnel, a paired t-test is the most appropriate statistical test. This test is used when comparing the means of two related samples (in this case, the same individuals tested twice). The paired t-test focuses on the differences between the paired observations.

Steps in Performing the Paired T-Test:

  • Calculate the difference (d) for each individual (as shown in the table above).
  • Calculate the mean difference (d̄): (10+10+5+5+10+5+15+5+5+5+5)/11 = 7.73
  • Calculate the standard deviation of the differences (sd): Approximately 3.82 (calculated using standard statistical formulas).
  • Calculate the t-statistic: t = d̄ / (sd / √n) = 7.73 / (3.82 / √11) = 6.74
  • Determine the degrees of freedom (df): df = n - 1 = 11 - 1 = 10
  • Find the p-value: Using a t-distribution table or statistical software, with df = 10 and t = 6.74, the p-value is less than 0.001.

Interpretation of Results

The p-value (less than 0.001) is less than the significance level (typically α = 0.05). Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis (H0) and accept the alternative hypothesis (H1). This indicates that there is statistically significant evidence to conclude that the training program improved the shooting scores of the police personnel.

It's important to note that statistical significance doesn't necessarily imply practical significance. While the scores improved significantly, the magnitude of the improvement needs to be considered in the context of operational requirements.

Conclusion

Based on the statistical analysis using a paired t-test, the data provides strong evidence that the month-long shooting training program benefitted the police personnel. The observed improvement in scores was statistically significant, suggesting the training was effective. However, further analysis considering the practical implications of the score improvements is recommended. Future evaluations should also incorporate control groups and consider other factors that might influence shooting performance, such as individual aptitude and equipment quality.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Null Hypothesis
A statement of no effect or no difference, which is assumed to be true until evidence suggests otherwise. It's the hypothesis being tested in a statistical analysis.
Paired T-test
A statistical test used to determine whether the means of two related groups are significantly different. It is appropriate when the same subjects are measured twice, such as before and after an intervention.

Key Statistics

According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data, in 2022, a total of 4.55 lakh cognizable offences were registered under the Indian Penal Code (IPC) related to crimes against women.

Source: NCRB, Crime in India Report 2022

As of 2023, the police-population ratio in India is approximately 152 police personnel per 100,000 citizens, which is lower than the United Nations recommended standard of 222.

Source: Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D), Data as of 2023

Examples

COMPSTAT

The New York City Police Department's COMPSTAT (Computer Statistics) system, implemented in the 1990s, is a prime example of data-driven policing. It uses real-time crime data to identify hotspots and deploy resources effectively, leading to a significant reduction in crime rates.

Frequently Asked Questions

What if the p-value is greater than 0.05?

If the p-value is greater than the significance level (0.05), we fail to reject the null hypothesis. This means there isn't enough evidence to conclude that the training program had a significant effect on the shooting scores.

Topics Covered

StatisticsPublic AdministrationLaw EnforcementHypothesis TestingStatistical SignificanceTraining Evaluation