UPSC MainsPOLITICAL-SCIENCE-INTERANATIONAL-RELATIONS-PAPER-II202320 Marks
Q17.

Arms trade, economic ties and congruent geo-political interests are no longer the three pillars of India – Russia relationship in the emerging strategic context. Comment.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of the evolving India-Russia relationship. The approach should be to first acknowledge the historical importance of the three pillars mentioned – arms trade, economic ties, and geopolitical congruence. Then, demonstrate how these pillars are being challenged by recent developments like the Ukraine war, India’s growing strategic autonomy, and diversification of its partnerships. The answer should analyze the emerging dynamics and identify new areas of cooperation, while also acknowledging the continuing relevance of the traditional pillars. A balanced and analytical approach is crucial.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The India-Russia relationship has been historically characterized by a ‘special and privileged strategic partnership,’ built on three key pillars: a robust arms trade, expanding economic ties, and a shared geopolitical outlook, particularly concerning a multipolar world order. However, the global strategic landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, particularly in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This has prompted a reassessment of India’s foreign policy priorities and its engagement with Russia. The question arises whether these traditional pillars continue to define the relationship, or if new dynamics are reshaping the Indo-Russian strategic context.

The Traditional Pillars: A Historical Perspective

For decades, the three pillars underpinned the India-Russia relationship.

  • Arms Trade: Russia (and previously the Soviet Union) has been India’s largest arms supplier, accounting for over 60% of India’s arms imports between 1960-2020. Key platforms include the MiG series aircraft, T-72 tanks, and the S-400 air defense system.
  • Economic Ties: Bilateral trade, while modest compared to India’s trade with other partners, has been steadily growing. Key sectors include fertilizers, machinery, and precious stones. Investments, particularly in the energy sector (e.g., Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project), have also been significant.
  • Geopolitical Congruence: Both India and Russia have historically shared a similar worldview, advocating for a multipolar world and opposing Western dominance. This convergence was evident in their positions on issues like the Non-Aligned Movement and the United Nations.

Challenges to the Traditional Pillars

The emerging strategic context presents several challenges to these pillars:

  • Impact of the Ukraine War: The war has put significant strain on the relationship. India’s abstention from UN votes condemning Russia, while understandable given its strategic interests, has drawn criticism from Western powers. Western sanctions on Russia have also complicated trade and financial transactions.
  • Diversification of Arms Sources: India is actively diversifying its arms imports, seeking partnerships with the US, France, and Israel. This reduces its dependence on Russia and provides access to more advanced technologies. The ‘Make in India’ initiative also aims to boost domestic arms production.
  • Economic Realignment: While trade continues, the volume has been affected by sanctions and logistical challenges. India is increasing its oil imports from Russia at discounted rates, but this has raised concerns about secondary sanctions.
  • India’s Strategic Autonomy: India is increasingly asserting its strategic autonomy, pursuing a multi-alignment policy that involves closer ties with multiple powers, including the US, Japan, and Australia (through the Quad). This reduces the exclusive focus on Russia.

Emerging Dynamics and New Areas of Cooperation

Despite the challenges, the India-Russia relationship is evolving, with new areas of cooperation emerging:

  • Energy Cooperation: Increased oil and gas imports from Russia, particularly at discounted rates, have become a significant aspect of the relationship. There is also potential for cooperation in nuclear energy (e.g., Kudankulam nuclear power plant).
  • Arctic Cooperation: India has been actively involved in Russia’s Arctic initiatives, recognizing the region’s strategic importance.
  • Space Cooperation: Joint ventures in space exploration and satellite technology continue to be a key area of collaboration.
  • Connectivity Projects: The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), aimed at enhancing connectivity between India, Russia, and Iran, is gaining momentum.
  • Digital Cooperation: Collaboration in areas like digital technologies, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence is expanding.

The Continuing Relevance of Traditional Pillars

While the relative importance of the traditional pillars may be shifting, they are not entirely obsolete.

  • Arms Trade: Russia remains a crucial supplier of critical defense equipment, particularly for legacy systems. Maintenance and spare parts are vital for India’s military readiness.
  • Geopolitical Alignment: Despite India’s multi-alignment policy, there remains a degree of convergence on issues like a multipolar world order and opposition to unilateralism.
Pillar Past Significance Present Significance
Arms Trade Dominant (60%+ of imports) Significant, but declining due to diversification
Economic Ties Growing, but limited in scope Expanding, particularly in energy; impacted by sanctions
Geopolitical Congruence Strong alignment on key issues Continued convergence, but with India’s increasing strategic autonomy

Conclusion

The India-Russia relationship is undergoing a period of recalibration. While the traditional pillars of arms trade, economic ties, and geopolitical congruence remain relevant, their relative importance is diminishing. The relationship is evolving towards a more pragmatic and diversified partnership, driven by mutual interests in areas like energy, connectivity, and technology. India’s strategic autonomy and its growing partnerships with other powers are reshaping the dynamics. The future of the relationship will depend on India’s ability to balance its strategic interests and navigate the complex geopolitical landscape.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Strategic Autonomy
The ability of a nation to pursue its own interests and make independent decisions in foreign policy, without being unduly influenced by other powers.
Multi-alignment
A foreign policy approach where a country maintains close relationships with multiple major powers, rather than aligning exclusively with one.

Key Statistics

Russia accounted for 45% of India’s total arms imports between 2018-2022, down from 62% in 2013-2017.

Source: SIPRI Arms Trade Database (2023)

India’s trade with Russia increased to $35.7 billion in FY23, a significant rise from $13.1 billion in FY22, largely driven by increased oil imports.

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India (2023)

Examples

S-400 Triumf System

India’s purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia in 2018, despite potential US sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), demonstrates India’s willingness to prioritize its defense needs and maintain ties with Russia.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will India completely abandon its reliance on Russian arms?

A complete abandonment is unlikely in the short term due to India’s dependence on Russian-origin equipment for maintenance and upgrades. However, India is actively diversifying its arms sources to reduce its long-term reliance.

Topics Covered

International RelationsIndian Foreign PolicyRussian Foreign PolicyStrategic AlignmentEconomic CooperationGeopolitical Shifts