UPSC MainsGENERAL-STUDIES-PAPER-II202410 Marks150 Words
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Q10.

Critically analyse India's evolving diplomatic, economic and strategic relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) highlighting their increasing significance in regional and global geopolitics.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of India’s engagement with Central Asia. The answer should move beyond merely listing diplomatic ties and delve into the economic and strategic dimensions, critically assessing their evolution. Structure the answer by first providing a brief overview of the region’s significance, then analyzing the diplomatic, economic, and strategic aspects separately, highlighting both opportunities and challenges. Finally, conclude with a forward-looking perspective on India’s role. Focus on recent developments like the Chabahar port and connectivity projects.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The Central Asian Republics (CARs) – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – are gaining prominence in the evolving global geopolitical landscape, particularly due to their strategic location along historical trade routes and rich natural resources. India shares historical and cultural ties with the region, and its engagement has been steadily increasing since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Initially focused on diplomatic outreach through the ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy (2012), India’s approach has broadened to encompass economic partnerships, security cooperation, and infrastructure development, driven by factors like China’s growing influence and the need for energy security. This evolving relationship warrants a critical analysis of its current state and future potential.

Diplomatic Relations

India’s diplomatic engagement with the CARs has been characterized by regular high-level visits, cultural exchanges, and participation in multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy aimed to strengthen political, economic, and security ties. However, geographical distances, limited direct land connectivity, and varying political systems in the CARs have posed challenges. India has consistently supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of these nations, fostering a climate of trust. Recent developments include increased focus on parliamentary diplomacy and people-to-people exchanges.

Economic Relations

Economic ties remain relatively modest despite significant potential. India’s trade with the CARs is considerably lower than its trade with other regions. Key areas of cooperation include:

  • Energy: Turkmenistan is a crucial source of natural gas, and discussions regarding the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline have been ongoing, though facing security concerns.
  • Pharmaceuticals & Agriculture: India exports pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, and machinery to the CARs.
  • Investment: Indian companies are investing in sectors like infrastructure, IT, and tourism, but the scale remains limited.

Challenges include logistical bottlenecks, lack of adequate infrastructure, and competition from China, which has significantly increased its economic footprint in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). India’s focus on projects like the Chabahar port in Iran, aiming to provide access to Afghanistan and potentially Central Asia, is a strategic counter to BRI.

Strategic Relations

Strategic cooperation is emerging as a key dimension of India’s engagement. This includes:

  • Counter-Terrorism: Shared concerns regarding terrorism and extremism, particularly emanating from Afghanistan, have led to increased intelligence sharing and security cooperation.
  • Security Cooperation: India has provided military training and equipment to CARs, enhancing their defense capabilities.
  • Connectivity: The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), involving India, Russia, and Iran, offers an alternative route to Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
  • Regional Stability: India actively participates in SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) to address security challenges.

However, the volatile security situation in Afghanistan remains a major concern, potentially impacting regional stability and hindering connectivity projects. Russia’s influence in the region also presents a complex dynamic for India’s strategic calculations.

Comparative Analysis of India’s Engagement with CARs

Country Key Areas of Cooperation Challenges
Kazakhstan Energy, IT, Defence Geographical distance, logistical issues
Uzbekistan Trade, Tourism, Cultural Exchange Political instability in Afghanistan
Turkmenistan Energy (TAPI pipeline), Trade Security concerns, project delays
Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan Military training, Capacity building Limited economic resources, political fragility

Conclusion

India’s engagement with the Central Asian Republics is steadily evolving, driven by shared interests in security, energy, and connectivity. While diplomatic ties are strong, economic and strategic cooperation needs further strengthening. Overcoming logistical challenges, diversifying trade, and actively participating in regional infrastructure projects like INSTC and Chabahar are crucial. India must navigate the complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its relationships with Russia and China while promoting regional stability and fostering sustainable partnerships with the CARs to realize their full potential as key players in the evolving regional and global order.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Connect Central Asia Policy
India’s guiding policy framework for its engagement with the Central Asian Republics, launched in 2012, focusing on strengthening political, economic, and security ties.
INSTC
The International North-South Transport Corridor is a multi-modal transportation route linking India, Russia, Iran, and other countries, providing an alternative trade route to Central Asia and Europe.

Key Statistics

India’s trade with Central Asia was approximately $2.5 billion in 2022-23.

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India (Knowledge cutoff: 2023)

China’s trade with Central Asia exceeded $40 billion in 2022, significantly surpassing India’s trade volume.

Source: China Customs Statistics (Knowledge cutoff: 2023)

Examples

Chabahar Port

India’s development of the Chabahar port in Iran is a strategic initiative to bypass Pakistan and gain access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, facilitating trade and connectivity.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the SCO for India’s Central Asia policy?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) provides a crucial platform for India to engage with the CARs on issues of security, counter-terrorism, and regional connectivity, fostering trust and cooperation.

Topics Covered

International RelationsForeign PolicyRegional SecurityGeopolitics