Model Answer
0 min readIntroduction
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allocated the waters of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. Born out of a desire to prevent water from becoming a source of conflict, the treaty allocated the eastern rivers – Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej – to India, and the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – to Pakistan. However, the geopolitical landscape and environmental conditions have drastically altered in the past fifty years. Increased water stress, climate change impacts like glacial melt, and escalating cross-border tensions necessitate a re-evaluation of the treaty’s relevance and efficacy in the 21st century. The question of whether a review is in India’s best interests is therefore a critical one.
Historical Context and Treaty Provisions
The IWT was a landmark achievement in resolving a potentially explosive dispute. It established a Permanent Indus Commission, comprising commissioners from both countries, to manage and resolve issues. The treaty also outlined mechanisms for data exchange, inspection tours, and dispute resolution, including arbitration by a neutral party. The underlying assumption was that the Indus basin had sufficient water to meet the needs of both nations.
Current Challenges: A Complex Landscape
Geopolitical Tensions
The deterioration of India-Pakistan relations, marked by cross-border terrorism and political instability, has significantly impacted the implementation of the IWT. Pakistan has repeatedly raised objections to India’s hydropower projects, alleging violations of the treaty’s provisions. The Uri attack in 2016 led to India considering ‘options’ to review the treaty, though no concrete action was taken.
Climate Change and Water Scarcity
Climate change is exacerbating water scarcity in the Indus basin. Glacial melt in the Himalayas, the source of the Indus River system, is accelerating, leading to increased river flows in the short term but posing a long-term threat to water availability. Changes in precipitation patterns and increased evaporation rates are further compounding the problem. According to the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), the Indus basin is facing a projected water availability decline of 20% by 2050.
Hydropower Projects and Concerns
India’s construction of hydropower projects on the western rivers, such as the Kishanganga and Ratle projects, has been a major source of contention. Pakistan argues that these projects violate the treaty by restricting water flow and altering the river’s ecology. India maintains that the projects are run-of-the-river and comply with the treaty’s provisions. The dispute highlights the ambiguity in interpreting certain clauses of the treaty, particularly regarding permissible designs and operational procedures.
Emerging Issues
- Non-Traditional Threats: Increasing pollution levels in the rivers, impacting water quality and agricultural productivity.
- Data Sharing: Concerns over transparency and timely sharing of hydrological data, crucial for effective water management.
- Flood Management: The need for improved flood forecasting and warning systems, given the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.
Is a Review in India’s Best Interests?
A complete abrogation of the IWT is unlikely to be beneficial for India, given the potential for escalating tensions and the lack of a viable alternative framework. However, a carefully considered review of specific provisions is warranted.
| Arguments for Review | Arguments Against Review |
|---|---|
| Addressing ambiguities in the treaty to allow for more efficient utilization of water resources by India. | The treaty has prevented full-scale wars between India and Pakistan despite numerous conflicts. |
| Incorporating climate change considerations and adapting the treaty to address the changing hydrological conditions. | Abrogating the treaty could lead to increased instability and potential for water wars. |
| Strengthening mechanisms for dispute resolution and ensuring greater transparency in data sharing. | A review process could be protracted and contentious, further straining India-Pakistan relations. |
India could push for a more robust dispute resolution mechanism, potentially involving international arbitration with binding powers. It could also advocate for a joint assessment of the impact of climate change on the Indus basin and explore collaborative solutions for water management. Any review should be conducted through diplomatic channels and with the involvement of the World Bank, as the original facilitator of the treaty.
Conclusion
The Indus Waters Treaty, while successful in preventing water-related conflicts for over six decades, is facing unprecedented challenges in the 21st century. A complete overhaul is not advisable, but a pragmatic review of specific provisions, focusing on climate change adaptation, dispute resolution, and data sharing, is in India’s best interests. This review should be pursued through diplomatic engagement and with a long-term vision of sustainable water management in the Indus basin, recognizing the interconnectedness of water security and regional stability.
Answer Length
This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.