UPSC MainsPOLITICAL-SCIENCE-INTERANATIONAL-RELATIONS-PAPER-II201310 Marks150 Words
हिंदी में पढ़ें
Q5.

Is India's Nuclear doctrine a viable one ?

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of India’s nuclear doctrine, its evolution, and its strengths and weaknesses in the current geopolitical context. The answer should begin by outlining the core tenets of the doctrine – No First Use (NFU), credible minimum deterrence, and massive retaliation. Then, it should critically evaluate its viability considering factors like Pakistan’s nuclear posture, China’s rise, technological advancements (hypersonic missiles, MIRVs), and global non-proliferation efforts. A balanced approach acknowledging both the doctrine’s stabilizing effects and potential vulnerabilities is crucial.

Model Answer

0 min read

Introduction

India’s nuclear doctrine, first publicly released in August 1999 following the 1998 Pokhran-II tests, represents a cornerstone of its national security policy. Rooted in the principle of ‘credible minimum deterrence’, it aims to ensure that India’s nuclear arsenal is sufficient to dissuade any potential adversary from initiating a nuclear attack. The doctrine is characterized by a ‘No First Use’ (NFU) pledge, coupled with the assurance of massive retaliation should India be subjected to a nuclear strike. However, the evolving strategic landscape, particularly concerning Pakistan and China, necessitates a continuous reassessment of its viability and relevance.

Core Tenets of India’s Nuclear Doctrine

India’s nuclear doctrine rests on four key elements:

  • No First Use (NFU): India will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in any conflict.
  • Credible Minimum Deterrence: Maintaining a nuclear force sufficient to deter potential adversaries.
  • Massive Retaliation: Responding to a nuclear attack with a massive and devastating counter-strike.
  • Command and Control: Robust command and control systems to prevent accidental or unauthorized use.

Arguments for the Viability of the Doctrine

  • Stabilizing Effect: The NFU pledge has arguably contributed to regional stability by reducing the risk of escalation. It signals a commitment to peaceful resolution of conflicts.
  • Cost-Effectiveness: Focusing on credible minimum deterrence allows India to maintain a relatively smaller, yet effective, nuclear arsenal, reducing financial burdens.
  • Moral High Ground: The NFU stance projects India as a responsible nuclear power committed to global disarmament efforts.

Challenges to the Doctrine’s Viability

  • Pakistan’s First-Use Policy: Pakistan’s declared ‘first-use’ policy and development of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) pose a significant challenge. This creates a scenario where Pakistan might consider using TNWs in a limited conflict, potentially forcing India to reconsider its NFU pledge.
  • China’s Nuclear Modernization: China’s rapid nuclear modernization, including the development of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) and advancements in dual-use technologies, erodes India’s strategic depth.
  • Technological Developments: The emergence of hypersonic missiles and anti-ballistic missile systems (ABMs) threatens the effectiveness of India’s retaliatory capabilities.
  • Grey Zone Warfare: Increasing instances of grey zone tactics (cyberattacks, proxy warfare) blur the lines between conventional and nuclear conflict, potentially triggering unintended escalation.

Evolving Debates and Potential Adjustments

There is ongoing debate within India regarding the NFU pledge. Some experts argue for a shift to a ‘credible first use’ policy, particularly in response to China’s growing assertiveness. Others advocate for maintaining the NFU pledge but strengthening India’s conventional capabilities to deter aggression. The development of a nuclear triad (land, sea, and air-based assets) is a key component of this strategy.

India’s Nuclear Triad

Component Status Significance
Land-Based Missiles Operational (Agni series) Provides a foundational deterrent.
Sea-Based Assets Developing (INS Arihant class submarines) Enhances survivability and second-strike capability.
Air-Based Assets Operational (BrahMos integration with Su-30MKI) Provides flexibility and rapid response capability.

Conclusion

India’s nuclear doctrine remains a viable framework for national security, but it requires continuous adaptation to address the evolving geopolitical landscape. While the NFU pledge has served as a stabilizing force, the challenges posed by Pakistan’s nuclear posture and China’s modernization necessitate a reassessment of its long-term relevance. Strengthening conventional capabilities, investing in advanced technologies, and maintaining robust command and control systems are crucial for ensuring the credibility and effectiveness of India’s nuclear deterrence. A pragmatic and flexible approach, informed by strategic realities, is essential for navigating the complexities of the 21st-century nuclear age.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Credible Minimum Deterrence
A nuclear doctrine asserting that a nation should maintain a sufficient nuclear arsenal to deter an attack by another nuclear power, without necessarily engaging in an arms race.
MIRV
Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle. A missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, each programmed to hit a different target.

Key Statistics

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India had approximately 164 nuclear warheads as of January 2023.

Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2023

India’s defense budget for 2023-24 is INR 5.94 lakh crore (approximately $72.5 billion), a significant portion of which is allocated to nuclear programs and related infrastructure. (Knowledge cutoff: 2024)

Source: Ministry of Defence, Government of India

Examples

Kargil War (1999)

The Kargil War demonstrated the importance of nuclear deterrence in preventing escalation. While Pakistan initiated the conflict, India refrained from escalating to a wider war, likely due to the nuclear overhang.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a nuclear triad?

A nuclear triad refers to the possession of nuclear weapons delivery systems based on land, sea, and air. This ensures a second-strike capability, making it difficult for an adversary to neutralize a nation’s nuclear arsenal in a first strike.

Topics Covered

International RelationsSecurityDefenseNuclear PolicyNuclear DeterrenceNational Security