UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II201510 Marks
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Q5.

River Flow Data Analysis & Statistics

Prior to construction of a dam on a river, the organization entrusted with the task of construction of the dam performed a series of tests to measure the water flow past the proposed location of the dam. The results of the tests were used to construct data shown in Table below. Compute the mean, standard deviation and the coefficient of variation of the river flow in litres per minute. What portion of the water flow occurs at less than 5200 litres per minute ?

How to Approach

This question requires a quantitative analysis of river flow data. The approach involves calculating the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation using standard statistical formulas. Subsequently, determining the portion of water flow below 5200 litres per minute necessitates understanding the data distribution and potentially using cumulative frequency or normal distribution approximations. A clear presentation of calculations and results is crucial for scoring well.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Hydrological data analysis is fundamental in water resource management, particularly crucial for the planning and construction of large infrastructure projects like dams. Prior to dam construction, comprehensive studies are undertaken to assess water availability, flood risks, and sediment transport. These studies rely heavily on statistical analysis of historical river flow data to ensure the dam's safety and optimal operation. Understanding the central tendency (mean), dispersion (standard deviation), and relative variability (coefficient of variation) of river flow is essential for informed decision-making in water resource engineering. This analysis helps in designing appropriate spillways, storage capacity, and operational strategies for the dam.

Data Analysis of River Flow

Let's assume the following river flow data (in litres per minute) is provided in the table (as the question refers to a table but doesn't provide the data, we will create a sample dataset for demonstration):

River Flow (Litres/Minute)
4800
5000
5200
5500
5800
6000
6200
6500
6800
7000

1. Calculating the Mean

The mean (average) river flow is calculated as the sum of all flow values divided by the number of values.

Mean (μ) = (4800 + 5000 + 5200 + 5500 + 5800 + 6000 + 6200 + 6500 + 6800 + 7000) / 10 = 59800 / 10 = 5980 litres/minute

2. Calculating the Standard Deviation

The standard deviation (σ) measures the dispersion of the data around the mean. It is calculated as the square root of the variance.

First, calculate the variance (σ2):

  • Calculate the difference between each data point and the mean.
  • Square each of these differences.
  • Sum the squared differences.
  • Divide the sum by the number of data points minus 1 (for sample standard deviation).

Variance (σ2) = Σ(xi - μ)2 / (n-1)

Variance = [(-180)2 + (-980)2 + (-780)2 + (-480)2 + (-180)2 + (20)2 + (220)2 + (520)2 + (820)2 + (1020)2] / 9

Variance = (32400 + 960400 + 608400 + 230400 + 32400 + 400 + 48400 + 270400 + 672400 + 1040400) / 9

Variance = 3900000 / 9 = 433333.33

Standard Deviation (σ) = √Variance = √433333.33 ≈ 658.3 litres/minute

3. Calculating the Coefficient of Variation

The coefficient of variation (CV) is a standardized measure of dispersion, expressed as a percentage. It is calculated as the standard deviation divided by the mean.

CV = (σ / μ) * 100 = (658.3 / 5980) * 100 ≈ 11.01%

4. Portion of Water Flow Less Than 5200 Litres per Minute

From the given data, we can directly count the number of flow values less than 5200 litres per minute. There are three values (4800, 5000, and 5200) that are less than 5200.

Portion of water flow less than 5200 litres/minute = (Number of values less than 5200 / Total number of values) * 100 = (3 / 10) * 100 = 30%

Conclusion

In conclusion, the mean river flow is 5980 litres per minute, with a standard deviation of approximately 658.3 litres per minute and a coefficient of variation of 11.01%. This indicates a moderate level of variability in the river flow. Furthermore, 30% of the observed water flow occurs at less than 5200 litres per minute. These statistical parameters are crucial for the safe and efficient design and operation of the proposed dam, informing decisions related to storage capacity, spillway design, and flood control measures.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Hydrology
The scientific study of the movement, distribution, and quality of water on Earth, including the hydrological cycle and water resources.
Standard Deviation
A measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean, while a high standard deviation indicates a larger spread of values.

Key Statistics

India receives approximately 4% of the global precipitation, yet accounts for nearly 20% of the world’s population. (Source: Central Water Commission, 2019)

Source: Central Water Commission (2019)

Approximately 11% of India’s geographical area is prone to floods, and over 40 million hectares of land are vulnerable. (Source: National Disaster Management Authority, 2023)

Source: National Disaster Management Authority (2023)

Examples

Bhakra Nangal Dam

The Bhakra Nangal Dam on the Sutlej River is a prime example of a large-scale water resource project in India. Extensive hydrological studies were conducted prior to its construction to determine optimal dam height, reservoir capacity, and irrigation potential.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the coefficient of variation?

The coefficient of variation allows for comparison of variability between datasets with different means. A higher CV indicates greater relative variability.

Topics Covered

StatisticsEnvironmental ScienceDescriptive StatisticsData AnalysisRiver Flow