UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-II201715 Marks
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Q10.

India has a vast potential to reap a demographic dividend. Explain the point and discuss the necessary measures to realise it.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of India’s demographic profile and the potential benefits (and challenges) associated with it. The answer should begin by defining the demographic dividend and outlining India’s current demographic situation. It should then delve into the necessary measures across education, skill development, health, employment generation, and governance to fully realize this potential. A structured approach, categorizing measures into these key areas, will be effective. Focus on policy recommendations and their implementation challenges.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The ‘demographic dividend’ refers to the economic growth potential resulting from shifts in a population’s age structure, particularly when the proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years) increases and the proportion of dependents (children and elderly) decreases. India, with its youthful population, is currently experiencing this phenomenon. As per the 2011 Census, the median age in India is 28 years, and projections indicate that this advantage will last until 2055. However, merely having a large working-age population doesn’t automatically translate into economic prosperity. Realizing this potential requires substantial investments in human capital and creating an enabling environment for economic growth.

Understanding India’s Demographic Potential

India’s demographic transition is characterized by a declining fertility rate and increasing life expectancy. This has led to a bulge in the working-age population. However, this demographic advantage is not uniform across states; some states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have already reached replacement level fertility, while others like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh still have higher fertility rates. This regional disparity presents unique challenges for policy formulation.

Necessary Measures to Realize the Demographic Dividend

1. Education and Skill Development

  • Improving Quality of Education: Focus on foundational literacy and numeracy, particularly in primary education. The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 aims to address this through holistic and multidisciplinary education.
  • Vocational Training & Skill Development: Expanding the reach and effectiveness of the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) and aligning skill development programs with industry needs. Emphasis should be on emerging technologies and future job markets.
  • Promoting Higher Education: Increasing access to quality higher education, particularly in STEM fields, to foster innovation and research.
  • Bridging the Skill Gap: Strengthening industry-academia partnerships to ensure curriculum relevance and provide practical training.

2. Health and Nutrition

  • Improving Healthcare Access: Strengthening primary healthcare infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, through initiatives like Ayushman Bharat – Health and Wellness Centres.
  • Addressing Malnutrition: Combating malnutrition among children and pregnant women through programs like the Poshan Abhiyaan (National Nutrition Mission).
  • Investing in Reproductive Health: Ensuring access to family planning services and promoting safe motherhood practices.
  • Mental Health Support: Recognizing the growing need for mental health services and integrating them into the healthcare system.

3. Employment Generation and Economic Opportunities

  • Promoting Labor-Intensive Industries: Focusing on sectors like manufacturing, textiles, and tourism, which have the potential to create large-scale employment. The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme is a step in this direction.
  • Supporting Entrepreneurship: Creating a conducive ecosystem for startups and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) through access to finance, mentorship, and regulatory simplification. The Startup India initiative aims to foster innovation and entrepreneurship.
  • Investing in Infrastructure: Developing infrastructure projects (roads, railways, ports) to create employment opportunities and boost economic growth.
  • Formalizing the Informal Sector: Bringing the large informal sector into the formal economy to provide social security benefits and improve working conditions.

4. Governance and Policy Reforms

  • Labor Law Reforms: Simplifying and rationalizing labor laws to promote employment and investment. The recent Labour Codes are aimed at achieving this.
  • Land Acquisition Reforms: Streamlining land acquisition processes to facilitate infrastructure development and industrial projects.
  • Improving Ease of Doing Business: Reducing bureaucratic hurdles and creating a more investor-friendly environment.
  • Gender Equality: Promoting gender equality in education, employment, and political participation to unlock the full potential of the female workforce.

Challenges to Realizing the Demographic Dividend

Despite the potential, several challenges hinder India’s ability to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. These include: high levels of unemployment and underemployment, particularly among youth; skill gaps and mismatches; inadequate infrastructure; and social inequalities. Furthermore, climate change and environmental degradation pose long-term threats to economic growth and employment.

Conclusion

India’s demographic dividend presents a unique opportunity for economic growth and social development. However, realizing this potential requires a concerted and sustained effort across multiple fronts. Investing in education, skill development, health, and infrastructure, coupled with sound governance and policy reforms, is crucial. Addressing regional disparities and ensuring inclusive growth are also essential. Failure to address these challenges could turn the demographic dividend into a demographic burden, hindering India’s progress towards becoming a global economic power.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Demographic Dividend
The economic growth potential resulting from shifts in a population’s age structure, particularly when the proportion of the working-age population increases and the proportion of dependents decreases.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
The average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.

Key Statistics

As of 2023, approximately 65% of India’s population is below the age of 35.

Source: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) - Knowledge cutoff 2023

India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 3.1 in 2000 to 2.0 in 2022 (National Family Health Survey-5).

Source: National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) - Knowledge cutoff 2023

Examples

East Asian Miracle

The economic success of countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the latter half of the 20th century is often cited as an example of successfully leveraging a demographic dividend through investments in education and human capital.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the role of women in realizing the demographic dividend?

Empowering women through education, healthcare, and economic opportunities is crucial. Increasing female labor force participation can significantly boost economic growth and contribute to the demographic dividend.

Topics Covered

EconomyDemographicsSocial IssuesPopulationSkill DevelopmentEconomic Growth