UPSC MainsPOLITICAL-SCIENCE-INTERANATIONAL-RELATIONS-PAPER-II201720 Marks
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Q23.

How is the 'Belt and Road Initiative' of China going to affect India-China relations?

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its implications for India-China relations. The answer should begin by briefly outlining the BRI, its objectives, and its key components. Then, it should analyze the various ways in which the BRI impacts India-China relations – politically, economically, and strategically. A balanced approach is crucial, acknowledging both the potential areas of conflict and cooperation. The answer should also consider India’s response to the BRI, including its own connectivity initiatives. Structure the answer into introduction, impact on political relations, economic relations, strategic/security concerns, and India’s counter-strategies.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, is a massive infrastructure development strategy aiming to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks. Encompassing over 150 countries and international organizations, the BRI involves investments in infrastructure projects like railways, ports, highways, and energy pipelines. While presented as a mutually beneficial development initiative, the BRI has raised significant concerns in India, particularly regarding its geopolitical implications and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). This has profoundly affected the already complex India-China relationship, creating new friction points and necessitating a recalibration of India’s strategic approach.

Political Impact

The BRI has introduced a new layer of complexity into the India-China political relationship. India’s primary objection stems from the CPEC, a flagship project of the BRI, which traverses through PoK. India views this as a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This has led to India’s consistent refusal to participate in BRI-related forums and summits. Furthermore, the BRI’s emphasis on bilateral agreements and debt-trap diplomacy has been viewed with suspicion by India, which prefers multilateral frameworks and sustainable development models. The lack of transparency in BRI projects and concerns about environmental and social safeguards have also contributed to political friction.

Economic Impact

Economically, the BRI presents both challenges and opportunities for India. While India doesn’t participate directly in the BRI, the initiative has the potential to reshape regional trade routes and economic dynamics. China’s growing economic influence in South Asia through BRI projects could potentially marginalize India’s economic role in the region. However, the BRI also creates opportunities for India to enhance its own connectivity initiatives and compete with China in infrastructure development. The BRI’s focus on infrastructure financing could also attract investment to the region, potentially benefiting India indirectly.

  • Trade Imbalance: The BRI could exacerbate the existing trade imbalance between India and China, with increased Chinese exports to BRI-participating countries.
  • Debt Sustainability: Concerns about debt sustainability in BRI recipient countries could have ripple effects on the regional economy, impacting India as well.

Strategic and Security Concerns

The BRI has significant strategic and security implications for India. China’s increasing presence in the Indian Ocean region through port development projects (e.g., Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan) raises concerns about China’s “string of pearls” strategy – a perceived attempt to encircle India with a network of naval bases. The BRI also facilitates China’s military presence in the region, potentially altering the regional power balance. Furthermore, the dual-use nature of some BRI infrastructure projects (e.g., ports that can also be used for military purposes) raises concerns about China’s strategic intentions. The increased Chinese influence in neighboring countries through economic dependence could also undermine India’s regional security interests.

India’s Response and Counter-Strategies

India has adopted a multi-pronged approach to counter the BRI’s influence. This includes:

  • Strengthening Bilateral Ties: India has focused on strengthening its bilateral ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly those that are also targeted by the BRI.
  • Connectivity Initiatives: India has launched its own connectivity initiatives, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) with Iran and Russia, and the India-Japan Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), as alternatives to the BRI.
  • Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad): India’s participation in the Quad (with the US, Japan, and Australia) is seen as a strategic response to China’s growing assertiveness and the BRI’s geopolitical implications.
  • Focus on Sustainable Development: India emphasizes sustainable and transparent development models, contrasting them with the perceived lack of transparency and environmental concerns associated with the BRI.
Initiative Key Features India's Role
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Infrastructure development, connectivity, trade facilitation Non-participant due to CPEC concerns
International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) Multimodal transport route connecting India, Iran, Russia Key promoter and investor
Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) Joint initiative with Japan to promote infrastructure and connectivity Co-developer and investor

Conclusion

The Belt and Road Initiative has undeniably complicated India-China relations, introducing new areas of contention and intensifying existing strategic competition. While complete decoupling is unlikely, India’s response, focused on strengthening regional partnerships, promoting alternative connectivity initiatives, and advocating for sustainable development, is crucial for mitigating the potential negative impacts of the BRI. The future trajectory of India-China relations will depend on China’s willingness to address India’s concerns regarding sovereignty and transparency, and on India’s ability to effectively leverage its strategic partnerships and economic strengths to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Debt-Trap Diplomacy
A situation where a country lends money to another country with the intention of gaining economic or political leverage, potentially leading to the debtor nation being unable to repay the loan and ceding control of strategic assets.
String of Pearls
A geopolitical theory describing China’s network of military and commercial facilities located in countries around the Indian Ocean, viewed by some as an attempt to encircle India.

Key Statistics

As of 2023, the total investment under the BRI is estimated to be over $1 trillion.

Source: World Bank (Knowledge cutoff: 2023)

China has invested over $60 billion in Pakistan through the CPEC as of 2022.

Source: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (Knowledge cutoff: 2022)

Examples

Sri Lanka and Hambantota Port

Sri Lanka leased the Hambantota port to China for 99 years in 2017 after struggling to repay loans taken for its construction, raising concerns about debt-trap diplomacy.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can India and China cooperate on BRI projects despite their differences?

Limited cooperation is possible on projects that do not impinge on India’s sovereignty concerns, such as those focused on regional connectivity excluding the CPEC. However, substantial cooperation remains challenging given the fundamental disagreements.

Topics Covered

International RelationsEconomicsPolitical ScienceGeopoliticsInfrastructure DevelopmentRegional ConnectivityForeign Policy