UPSC MainsPOLITICAL-SCIENCE-INTERANATIONAL-RELATIONS-PAPER-II202220 Marks
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Q9.

Critically examine the rise of People's Republic of China (PRC) as a great power and its implications on Asian Political order.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of China’s rise, moving beyond simply stating its economic growth. The answer should critically examine the *how* and *why* of its ascent, focusing on both internal factors and the international environment. It needs to analyze the implications for the Asian political order, considering both challenges and opportunities presented by China’s growing influence. Structure the answer by first outlining the factors contributing to China’s rise, then detailing its impact on regional security, economic dynamics, and institutional frameworks, and finally, offering a balanced assessment of the future trajectory.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undergone a remarkable transformation from a largely isolated, agrarian society to a global power in a remarkably short period. Beginning with Deng Xiaoping’s ‘Reform and Opening Up’ policy in 1978, China has experienced unprecedented economic growth, coupled with significant military modernization and increasing diplomatic influence. This rise has fundamentally altered the Asian political order, challenging the existing US-led regional architecture and prompting both cooperation and competition among Asian states. Critically examining this ascent requires understanding the drivers of China’s power and the multifaceted implications of its growing presence in Asia.

Factors Contributing to China’s Rise

China’s emergence as a great power is attributable to a confluence of internal and external factors:

  • Economic Reforms: Deng Xiaoping’s reforms shifted China from a centrally planned economy to a ‘socialist market economy’, attracting foreign investment and fostering rapid industrialization. The establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in 1980 played a crucial role.
  • Demographic Dividend: A large, relatively young, and increasingly educated workforce provided a significant competitive advantage.
  • State Capitalism: A unique model combining state control with market mechanisms allowed for strategic investment and long-term planning.
  • Political Stability: The Communist Party of China (CPC) maintained political stability, enabling consistent policy implementation.
  • Strategic Investment in Infrastructure: Massive investments in infrastructure, including high-speed rail, ports, and digital networks, facilitated economic growth and connectivity.
  • Global Integration: Accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 accelerated China’s integration into the global economy.

Implications for the Asian Political Order: Security Dimension

China’s rise has significantly impacted the security landscape in Asia:

  • South China Sea Disputes: China’s assertive territorial claims and militarization of the South China Sea have heightened tensions with neighboring countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. The ‘Nine-Dash Line’ claim remains a major point of contention.
  • Increased Military Spending: China’s substantial increase in military spending (reaching approximately $292 billion in 2023 – SIPRI data) has raised concerns about its intentions and capabilities.
  • Strategic Competition with India: Border disputes, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and growing competition for regional influence have strained relations with India.
  • North Korea: China’s role as North Korea’s primary economic and political partner influences the dynamics of the Korean Peninsula.
  • Challenge to US Alliances: China’s growing military power challenges the US’s traditional security alliances in the region, such as with Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Implications for the Asian Political Order: Economic Dimension

China’s economic influence is reshaping the Asian economic landscape:

  • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Launched in 2013, the BRI aims to connect China with Asia, Africa, and Europe through infrastructure development. While offering economic opportunities, it has also raised concerns about debt sustainability and strategic dependence.
  • Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): The RCEP, signed in 2020, is a free trade agreement involving 15 Asia-Pacific countries, including China, and represents a significant step towards regional economic integration.
  • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): Established in 2016, the AIIB provides financing for infrastructure projects in Asia, challenging the dominance of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
  • Trade Dominance: China is the largest trading partner for many Asian countries, giving it significant economic leverage.

Implications for the Asian Political Order: Institutional Frameworks

China is actively seeking to reshape regional institutions:

  • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO): China plays a leading role in the SCO, a security organization that includes Russia and several Central Asian countries.
  • ASEAN-China Relations: China’s relationship with ASEAN is complex, characterized by both economic cooperation and geopolitical competition. The South China Sea dispute remains a major challenge.
  • Attempts to Promote Alternative Norms: China promotes a different model of governance and international relations, emphasizing non-interference and state sovereignty, which challenges liberal democratic norms.
Area Impact of China's Rise
Security Increased tensions in South China Sea, heightened military competition, challenge to US alliances.
Economy BRI, RCEP, AIIB, increased trade dominance, potential debt traps.
Institutions Influence in SCO, complex ASEAN relations, promotion of alternative norms.

Conclusion

China’s rise as a great power is an undeniable reality with profound implications for the Asian political order. While offering economic opportunities and contributing to regional connectivity, its assertive foreign policy and growing military capabilities pose significant challenges to the existing regional architecture. The future of Asia will depend on how China manages its rise, whether it chooses a path of cooperation and shared prosperity or one of confrontation and dominance. A balanced approach, emphasizing dialogue, transparency, and adherence to international law, is crucial for maintaining peace and stability in the region.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
A global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government involving investments in over 150 countries and international organizations.
Indo-Pacific
A geopolitical construct encompassing the Indian and Pacific Oceans, increasingly used to describe a region where China and the United States are engaged in strategic competition.

Key Statistics

China’s GDP grew at an average rate of 9.5% per year from 1978 to 2018.

Source: World Bank Data (as of knowledge cutoff 2023)

China’s military expenditure accounted for 14.1% of global military spending in 2023.

Source: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database (as of knowledge cutoff 2023)

Examples

The Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka

The Hambantota Port, built with Chinese funding under the BRI, exemplifies the potential risks of debt-trap diplomacy. Sri Lanka was unable to repay its loans, leading to China taking a 99-year lease on the port.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is China’s rise inevitable?

While China’s continued growth is likely, it is not inevitable. Internal challenges such as demographic shifts, environmental degradation, and political constraints could slow its progress. External factors, including geopolitical competition and economic disruptions, also play a role.

Topics Covered

International RelationsGeopoliticsChina's Foreign PolicyRegional Security