Model Answer
0 min readIntroduction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) released in 2021, projects a global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) of approximately 0.28–0.55 meters by 2100 under a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6) and 0.63–1.01 meters under a very high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). While a one-meter rise by AD 2100 represents a plausible upper bound, even moderate increases pose significant threats, particularly to low-lying coastal regions and island nations. The Indian Ocean region, characterized by densely populated coastlines and a high degree of economic reliance on marine resources, is exceptionally vulnerable to these changes. This answer will explore the potential impacts of such a rise on India and its neighboring countries in the IOR.
Understanding Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise is primarily driven by two factors: thermal expansion – the expansion of water volume as it warms – and the melting of land-based ice (glaciers and ice sheets). Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are the dominant cause of global warming, accelerating both these processes. Regional variations in sea level rise exist due to factors like ocean currents, gravitational effects of ice sheets, and vertical land movement.
Impact on India
India possesses a 7,516.6 km long coastline, making it highly susceptible to sea level rise. The impacts would be multifaceted:
- Coastal Erosion: Increased erosion will threaten coastal infrastructure, settlements, and agricultural lands. States like West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Gujarat are particularly vulnerable.
- Increased Flooding: More frequent and intense coastal flooding events, including storm surges, will displace populations and damage property. The Sunderbans delta, already facing significant land loss, is at extreme risk.
- Salinization of Groundwater: Intrusion of saltwater into freshwater aquifers will contaminate drinking water sources and impact agriculture, particularly in coastal regions.
- Impact on Agriculture & Fisheries: Loss of arable land due to inundation and salinization will reduce agricultural productivity. Fisheries will be affected by changes in marine ecosystems and breeding grounds.
- Displacement & Migration: Millions of people could be displaced, leading to internal migration and potential social unrest.
- Damage to Infrastructure: Ports, roads, railways, and other critical infrastructure located in coastal areas will be vulnerable to damage.
Impact on the Indian Ocean Region
The impacts on other IOR countries will vary based on their geographical characteristics and socio-economic conditions:
| Country | Vulnerability | Potential Impacts |
|---|---|---|
| Maldives | Low-lying archipelago | Existential threat; potential complete submergence; displacement of entire population. |
| Sri Lanka | Extensive coastline, densely populated | Coastal erosion, flooding, salinization of water resources, impact on tourism. |
| Bangladesh | Low-lying deltaic region | Massive displacement, agricultural losses, increased frequency of cyclones and storm surges. |
| Indonesia | Archipelagic nation with numerous low-lying islands | Loss of land, displacement of communities, damage to infrastructure, impact on fisheries. |
| Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique | Coastal cities and infrastructure | Increased flooding, erosion, damage to ports and tourism infrastructure. |
Geopolitical Implications
Sea level rise can exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions in the IOR. Competition for dwindling resources, increased migration flows, and potential conflicts over maritime boundaries could destabilize the region. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the IOR are particularly vulnerable and may require international assistance for adaptation and relocation.
Adaptation and Mitigation
Addressing the challenges posed by sea level rise requires a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Mitigation involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions to slow down the rate of warming. Adaptation measures include building coastal defenses (sea walls, mangroves), improving drainage systems, developing salt-tolerant crops, and implementing managed retreat strategies. International cooperation and financial assistance are crucial for supporting vulnerable countries in their adaptation efforts.
Conclusion
The projected sea level rise poses a significant and multifaceted threat to India and the Indian Ocean region. The impacts will range from coastal erosion and flooding to displacement, economic losses, and geopolitical instability. Proactive and comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies, coupled with international cooperation, are essential to minimize the risks and build resilience in the face of this looming challenge. Ignoring this threat will have devastating consequences for millions of people and the ecological integrity of the region.
Answer Length
This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.