UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I202410 Marks150 Words
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Q19.

Explain how the equilibrium terms of trade are determined by using offer curves of the trading partners.

How to Approach

This question requires a clear understanding of international trade theory, specifically the concept of offer curves and how they interact to determine equilibrium terms of trade. The answer should begin by defining terms of trade and offer curves. Then, it should explain how the intersection of offer curves determines the point of mutually beneficial trade. Diagrams are crucial for illustrating the concept. The answer should be concise, focusing on the core mechanism, given the word limit.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Terms of Trade (TOT) represent the ratio of a country’s export prices to its import prices. A favorable TOT implies a country can obtain more imports for a given quantity of exports. The determination of these terms is central to understanding international trade dynamics. Offer curves, introduced by Marshall, graphically represent the quantities of a commodity a country is willing to export at different relative prices. The intersection of these curves for trading partners establishes the equilibrium terms of trade, ensuring mutually beneficial exchange.

Understanding Offer Curves

An offer curve shows the relationship between the price of an export commodity and the quantity of that commodity a country is willing to offer for sale. It slopes negatively, reflecting the law of supply. As the relative price of the export good rises, the country is willing to export more. Conversely, as the price falls, the quantity offered decreases.

Determining Equilibrium Terms of Trade

Consider two trading countries, A and B. Country A exports wheat and imports cloth from Country B. Country B exports cloth and imports wheat from Country A. The equilibrium terms of trade are determined where the offer curve of Country A (showing the quantity of wheat it offers at different relative prices of wheat and cloth) intersects the offer curve of Country B (showing the quantity of cloth it offers at different relative prices of wheat and cloth).

Graphical Representation

Imagine a diagram with the relative price of wheat on the Y-axis and the quantity of wheat on the X-axis. The offer curve of Country A slopes downwards. Similarly, another diagram shows the relative price of cloth on the Y-axis and the quantity of cloth on the X-axis, with Country B’s offer curve sloping downwards. The point where these curves intersect determines the equilibrium relative price of wheat and cloth, and hence the terms of trade.

Mechanism of Adjustment

If the initial terms of trade are unfavorable to Country A (i.e., the price of wheat is too low relative to cloth), Country A will offer less wheat, shifting its offer curve upwards. This scarcity increases the price of wheat and reduces the price of cloth, moving towards the equilibrium. Conversely, if the terms of trade are unfavorable to Country B, it will offer less cloth, leading to a price increase for cloth and a decrease for wheat. This process continues until the offer curves intersect, establishing a stable equilibrium.

Limitations

The offer curve analysis assumes constant costs of production and perfect competition. In reality, costs may increase as production expands, and markets are often imperfectly competitive. Furthermore, the model doesn’t account for transportation costs or trade barriers.

Example: India and USA

Consider India exporting textiles to the USA and importing machinery from the USA. The intersection of India’s offer curve for textiles and the USA’s offer curve for machinery will determine the equilibrium terms of trade – the ratio of textile prices to machinery prices. Changes in demand or supply in either country will shift the offer curves and alter the terms of trade.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the equilibrium terms of trade are determined by the intersection of the offer curves of trading partners, reflecting the quantities each country is willing to export at different relative prices. This mechanism ensures a mutually beneficial exchange, although the model’s assumptions should be acknowledged. Shifts in offer curves due to changes in production costs, demand, or trade policies can alter the terms of trade, impacting the welfare of trading nations.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Terms of Trade (TOT)
The ratio of a country's export prices to its import prices. It is calculated as (Index of Export Prices / Index of Import Prices) * 100. A TOT greater than 100 indicates favorable terms of trade.
Offer Curve
A curve showing the relationship between the price of an export commodity and the quantity of that commodity a country is willing to export.

Key Statistics

In 2022, India's terms of trade deteriorated due to rising import costs, particularly for crude oil. The ratio declined to 106.8 from 111.4 in 2021.

Source: RBI Report on Currency and Finance, 2022-23

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade volume grew by 3.5% in 2022, impacting the terms of trade for many countries.

Source: WTO Trade Statistics, 2023

Examples

Oil Price Shocks

A sudden increase in global oil prices negatively impacts the terms of trade for oil-importing countries like India, as they have to pay more for the same quantity of oil.

Frequently Asked Questions

What happens if a country's offer curve shifts to the left?

A leftward shift in a country's offer curve indicates a decrease in its willingness to export at any given relative price. This typically happens due to increased production costs or domestic demand. It leads to an improvement in the country's terms of trade as the export good becomes relatively scarcer.

Topics Covered

EconomyInternational EconomicsInternational TradeTerms of TradeComparative Advantage