UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I202420 Marks
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Q20.

Discuss the elasticity approach and absorption approach for adjustments in balance of payments.

How to Approach

This question requires a comparative analysis of two approaches to balance of payments (BoP) adjustments: the elasticity approach and the absorption approach. The answer should begin by defining BoP disequilibrium and then explaining each approach, highlighting their underlying principles, mechanisms, and policy implications. A comparison of their strengths and weaknesses, along with real-world examples, will strengthen the response. Structure the answer into an introduction, detailed explanations of each approach, a comparative analysis, and a conclusion.

Model Answer

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Introduction

A balance of payments (BoP) disequilibrium arises when a country’s payments to and from the rest of the world are not equal. This can manifest as a deficit (imports exceeding exports) or a surplus (exports exceeding imports). Adjusting these imbalances is crucial for maintaining economic stability. Two prominent approaches to BoP adjustment are the elasticity approach and the absorption approach. The elasticity approach, rooted in classical economics, emphasizes the role of price and income elasticities in correcting imbalances. Conversely, the absorption approach, developed by Jan Tinbergen, focuses on the relationship between a country’s output and its absorption of domestic and foreign goods. Both approaches offer distinct policy prescriptions for achieving BoP equilibrium.

The Elasticity Approach

The elasticity approach, largely based on the principles of Marshall-Lerner condition, posits that a country experiencing a BoP deficit can restore equilibrium through price and income adjustments. The core idea is that a devaluation of the currency will improve the trade balance by making exports cheaper and imports more expensive. However, the success of devaluation hinges on the Marshall-Lerner condition, which states that the sum of the price elasticities of demand for exports and imports must be greater than one.

  • Mechanism: Devaluation leads to a change in relative prices, altering the volume of exports and imports. If the Marshall-Lerner condition holds, the percentage increase in export volume will outweigh the percentage decrease in import volume, leading to an improvement in the trade balance.
  • Policy Implications: This approach advocates for flexible exchange rates and minimal government intervention. The focus is on allowing market forces to correct the imbalance. Fiscal and monetary policies are used to manage domestic demand and inflation.
  • Limitations: The Marshall-Lerner condition may not always hold, especially in the short run. J-curve effect (initial worsening of trade balance after devaluation) can occur. It assumes perfect competition and ignores other factors influencing trade, such as non-tariff barriers.

The Absorption Approach

The absorption approach, developed by Jan Tinbergen, focuses on the relationship between a country’s national income (Y) and its total absorption (A). Absorption (A) is the sum of domestic consumption (C) and investment (I) plus government expenditure (G) on domestically produced goods, plus exports (X). The approach suggests that a BoP deficit arises when absorption exceeds domestic output (Y). Therefore, to restore equilibrium, absorption must be reduced or domestic output must be increased.

  • Mechanism: A BoP deficit implies A > Y. To restore equilibrium, either A must fall (through contractionary fiscal or monetary policy) or Y must rise (through expansionary policies). The choice depends on the specific circumstances of the economy.
  • Policy Implications: This approach emphasizes the use of fiscal and monetary policies to manage aggregate demand. Contractionary policies (higher taxes, reduced government spending, higher interest rates) can reduce absorption, while expansionary policies (lower taxes, increased government spending, lower interest rates) can increase output.
  • Limitations: Implementing contractionary policies can lead to unemployment and recession. Increasing output may be difficult if the economy is already operating at full capacity. The approach may not be effective if the deficit is caused by external shocks.

Comparative Analysis

The elasticity and absorption approaches differ significantly in their focus and policy prescriptions. The elasticity approach prioritizes exchange rate adjustments and relies on the responsiveness of trade volumes to price changes. The absorption approach, on the other hand, emphasizes domestic demand management and focuses on aligning absorption with output.

Feature Elasticity Approach Absorption Approach
Core Principle Price and income elasticities of demand Relationship between absorption and output
Primary Adjustment Mechanism Exchange rate devaluation Fiscal and monetary policies
Focus External sector Domestic sector
Key Condition Marshall-Lerner condition A ≤ Y
Short-run Effects J-curve effect possible Potential for recession

In practice, a combination of both approaches is often necessary to achieve sustainable BoP equilibrium. For example, a country might devalue its currency (elasticity approach) while simultaneously implementing fiscal austerity measures (absorption approach) to reduce domestic demand.

Conclusion

Both the elasticity and absorption approaches provide valuable frameworks for understanding and addressing balance of payments disequilibria. While the elasticity approach highlights the importance of exchange rate flexibility and trade responsiveness, the absorption approach underscores the role of domestic demand management. The optimal policy response often involves a judicious combination of both, tailored to the specific economic circumstances of the country. Successfully navigating BoP adjustments requires a nuanced understanding of these approaches and their limitations, alongside consideration of global economic conditions and structural factors.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Balance of Payments (BoP)
A statistical record of all economic transactions between residents of one country and the rest of the world over a given period of time.
Absorption
The total amount of domestic expenditure on domestically produced goods and services, plus the value of exports. It is calculated as C + I + G + X.

Key Statistics

India's current account deficit widened to 2.8% of GDP in FY23.

Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) - as of knowledge cutoff 2023

Global trade volume grew by 3.5% in 2022, slowing down from 9.8% in 2021.

Source: World Trade Organization (WTO) - as of knowledge cutoff 2023

Examples

The 1991 Indian Economic Crisis

India faced a severe BoP crisis in 1991 due to a combination of factors, including high fiscal deficits, falling foreign exchange reserves, and rising oil prices. The crisis led to significant economic reforms, including liberalization, privatization, and globalization, aimed at improving the country’s external position.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the J-curve effect?

The J-curve effect refers to the initial worsening of a country’s trade balance following a devaluation of its currency. This is because import prices rise immediately, while the increase in export volume takes time to materialize.

Topics Covered

EconomyInternational EconomicsBalance of PaymentsExchange RatesInternational Trade