UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-II202410 Marks150 Words
Q16.

Is service-led growth in India sustainable? Comment.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of India’s economic growth trajectory. The approach should involve defining service-led growth, analyzing its strengths and weaknesses in the Indian context, and evaluating its long-term sustainability. Structure the answer by first defining the concept, then outlining the factors driving service-led growth in India, followed by a discussion of the challenges and finally, a balanced conclusion regarding its sustainability. Include relevant data and examples to support your arguments.

Model Answer

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Introduction

India’s economic growth story over the past three decades has been significantly shaped by the rise of the service sector. Service-led growth refers to an economic development model where the service sector contributes a disproportionately large share to a nation’s GDP and employment. From a mere 15% of GDP in 1950, the sector now accounts for over 54% (2022-23, Provisional Estimates of National Income). This shift has been driven by factors like globalization, technological advancements, and a demographic dividend. However, the question of whether this growth model is sustainable requires a critical assessment of its inherent strengths and vulnerabilities.

Drivers of Service-Led Growth in India

Several factors have propelled the growth of the service sector in India:

  • Information Technology (IT) and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO): India has emerged as a global hub for IT and BPO services, leveraging its skilled workforce and cost advantages.
  • Financial Services: The expansion of the banking, insurance, and capital markets has contributed significantly to the sector’s growth.
  • Tourism and Hospitality: A growing middle class and increasing disposable incomes have boosted demand for tourism and hospitality services.
  • Communication Services: The telecom revolution, particularly the advent of mobile telephony, has spurred growth in this segment.
  • Professional and Technical Services: Demand for services like legal, accounting, and consulting has increased with economic liberalization.

Sustainability Concerns & Challenges

Despite its successes, service-led growth in India faces several sustainability challenges:

  • Jobless Growth: The service sector, particularly IT, is often capital-intensive and doesn’t generate employment on the same scale as manufacturing or agriculture. This leads to concerns about jobless growth and rising inequality.
  • Skill Gap: The sector requires a highly skilled workforce, and India faces a significant skill gap, particularly in emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.
  • Infrastructure Deficiencies: Inadequate infrastructure, including power, transportation, and digital connectivity, can hinder the growth of the service sector.
  • Global Economic Volatility: The service sector, especially IT-BPO, is vulnerable to global economic slowdowns and protectionist measures in developed countries. The 2008 financial crisis and recent geopolitical tensions demonstrate this vulnerability.
  • Low Agricultural Productivity: A significant portion of the population still depends on agriculture, which suffers from low productivity and rural distress. Service sector growth hasn’t adequately addressed these issues.
  • Regional Disparities: The benefits of service-led growth are concentrated in a few urban centers, exacerbating regional disparities.

Addressing the Challenges – Towards Sustainable Growth

To ensure the sustainability of service-led growth, India needs to adopt a multi-pronged approach:

  • Investing in Skill Development: Focus on vocational training and upskilling programs to bridge the skill gap. The Skill India Mission (2015) is a step in this direction.
  • Strengthening Infrastructure: Invest in infrastructure development, particularly in rural areas, to improve connectivity and reduce costs.
  • Promoting Manufacturing: Revitalizing the manufacturing sector through initiatives like ‘Make in India’ can create more jobs and reduce dependence on the service sector.
  • Enhancing Agricultural Productivity: Investing in agricultural research, irrigation, and market reforms can improve agricultural productivity and rural incomes.
  • Promoting Inclusive Growth: Implementing policies to reduce regional disparities and ensure that the benefits of growth reach all sections of society.
  • Diversifying the Service Sector: Focusing on high-value services like research and development, financial technology (FinTech), and healthcare can enhance the sector’s resilience.
Sector Contribution to GDP (2022-23, Provisional Estimates) Employment Share (2021-22, Periodic Labour Force Survey)
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 18.3% 45.8%
Industry 24.3% 24.7%
Services 57.4% 29.5%

Conclusion

Service-led growth has undoubtedly been a key driver of India’s economic progress. However, its sustainability is contingent upon addressing the inherent challenges related to jobless growth, skill gaps, infrastructure deficiencies, and regional disparities. A balanced approach that promotes manufacturing, enhances agricultural productivity, and invests in human capital is crucial to ensure that the benefits of growth are widely shared and the economy remains resilient in the long run. Moving forward, a focus on innovation and diversification within the service sector itself will be vital for sustained and inclusive growth.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Demographic Dividend
The demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential resulting from shifts in a population’s age structure, particularly when the proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years) increases relative to the dependent population (children and elderly).
FinTech
Financial Technology (FinTech) refers to the use of technology to improve or automate financial services and processes. This includes mobile payments, digital lending, and blockchain technology.

Key Statistics

India’s IT-BPM industry is estimated to have generated US$227 billion in revenue in FY23.

Source: NASSCOM Strategic Review 2023

The Indian FinTech market is projected to reach $150 billion by 2030.

Source: Various industry reports (knowledge cutoff 2024)

Examples

Bangalore’s IT Hub

Bangalore’s emergence as a global IT hub demonstrates the potential of service-led growth. The city has attracted significant investment, created numerous jobs, and contributed substantially to India’s economic growth. However, it also faces challenges related to infrastructure congestion and environmental sustainability.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is India’s service sector too reliant on external demand?

Yes, a significant portion of India’s service exports is directed towards developed countries. This makes the sector vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand and protectionist policies in those countries. Diversifying export markets and promoting domestic demand are crucial to reduce this reliance.

Topics Covered

EconomyService SectorEconomic GrowthSustainability