UPSC MainsAGRICULTURE-PAPER-I202520 Marks
हिंदी में पढ़ें
Q6.

2. (a) Enumerate the impact of climate change with reference to agricultural production. Present the opinion of public on climate change.

How to Approach

The answer will begin by defining climate change in relation to agriculture and its significance for India. The body will enumerate the multifaceted impacts of climate change on agricultural production, covering various aspects like crop yields, water availability, and pest dynamics, supported by statistics and reports. Subsequently, it will delve into public and farmer perceptions of climate change, highlighting their observations and concerns. The conclusion will summarize the findings and offer a forward-looking perspective on climate-resilient agriculture.

Model Answer

0 min read

Introduction

Climate change, characterized by significant shifts in global weather patterns due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, poses one of the most formidable threats to global food security and sustainable development. For a country like India, where agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for over 50% of the population and contributes significantly to the GDP, these impacts are particularly acute. The intricate relationship between climate and agriculture means that even minor variations in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events can have cascading effects on crop productivity, farmer incomes, and national food security, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of its widespread implications and public awareness.

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production

Climate change profoundly affects agricultural production through a combination of direct and indirect mechanisms, threatening food security and farmer livelihoods globally, and particularly in vulnerable regions like India. These impacts manifest across various aspects of the agricultural ecosystem:

  • Reduced Crop Yields:
    • Temperature Extremes: Rising temperatures, including more frequent and intense heatwaves, negatively impact crop growth stages. For instance, wheat yields are projected to reduce by 19.3% in 2050 and 40% in 2080 scenarios in India without adaptation measures. Rainfed rice yields are projected to decrease by 20% by 2050 and 47% by 2080. Kharif maize yields are projected to decline by 18% and 23% in 2050 and 2080, respectively. These extreme temperatures can lead to heat stress, affecting flowering and pollination, and damaging grains at maturity.
    • Altered Precipitation Patterns: Changes in the amount, intensity, and timing of rainfall, including delayed monsoon onset, intermittent dry spells, and excessive rainfall, disrupt crop cycles. Insufficient rainfall during critical growing periods affects cereals and pulses, while excessive rainfall can damage oilseeds, especially during harvesting.
    • Lower Nutritional Quality: Climate change can reduce the nutritional quality of produce, impacting food and nutrient consumption.
  • Water Scarcity and Droughts:
    • Erratic rainfall patterns contribute to increased instances of water scarcity and prolonged droughts, severely affecting rainfed agriculture which constitutes a significant portion of Indian farming. This necessitates a greater reliance on groundwater, leading to its depletion.
  • Increased Pests and Diseases:
    • Warmer temperatures create a more conducive environment for the proliferation and spread of agricultural pests and diseases, increasing their frequency and intensity. This leads to higher crop losses and necessitates more intensive pest management practices.
  • Soil Degradation:
    • Intense rainfall can lead to increased soil erosion, while changes in temperature and moisture can affect soil fertility and nutrient cycling. Years of intensive monoculture and chemical fertilizer use, coupled with climate change, further deplete micronutrients.
  • Impact on Livestock and Fisheries:
    • Heat stress can lead to decreased livestock productivity, including reduced milk production in dairy animals. Changes in aquatic ecosystems due to temperature shifts and ocean acidification can negatively impact fish populations and fisheries.
  • Economic Losses and Food Insecurity:
    • Crop damage and reduced yields result in significant income losses for farmers, particularly small and marginal farmers. This contributes to increased food insecurity and price volatility for agricultural commodities, exacerbating rural poverty. The Government of India's economic survey (2018) estimated an annual loss of US$ 9-10 billion due to climate change impacts on agriculture.

Table: Projected Yield Reductions in Key Indian Crops (without adaptation measures)

Crop Projected Yield Reduction by 2050 Projected Yield Reduction by 2080
Rainfed Rice 20% 47%
Irrigated Rice 3.5% 5%
Wheat 19.3% 40%
Kharif Maize 18% 23%

Source: Government of India's extensive field and simulation studies (2023)

Public Opinion on Climate Change with Reference to Agriculture

Public opinion, particularly among the agrarian communities, strongly reflects the observed changes in climate patterns and their tangible impacts on agriculture. Surveys and studies in India indicate a significant awareness and concern among farmers regarding climate change.

General Public Opinion:

  • A survey conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC) and the Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research (CVoter) between September and November 2023 revealed that large majorities of Indians are worried about climate-related hazards.
  • 85% are concerned about severe heat waves and droughts/water shortages.
  • 76% are worried about severe cyclones, and 71% about floods.
  • Urban residents tend to have higher awareness of climate change than those in less urban areas, highlighting a need for regionally tailored educational resources.

Farmers' Perceptions:

Farmers, being on the front lines, often base their opinions on direct observation of climate variability and its effects on their crops and livelihoods.

  • Perceived Temperature Increase: Most farmers (around 89% in some studies, such as one in a semi-arid region of South India) perceive that temperatures are increasing and have become unbearable, especially over the past two decades.
  • Changing Rainfall Patterns: A significant majority of farmers (around 88% in the South India study, and similar findings in other regions like Nuh district in Haryana and Kolar district in Karnataka) report decreasing and unpredictable rainfall, including delayed monsoon onset, intermittent dry spells, and early withdrawal. Some also noted increased overall rainfall but with erratic distribution.
  • Impacts on Agricultural Practices: Farmers have observed direct impacts such as increased pest and disease occurrences, altered sowing periods, and heightened competition from weeds. Many have already changed agricultural management practices in response.
  • Crop Specific Concerns: Farmers reported a decrease in the area under cereal cultivation, especially rice, primarily due to water deficiency.
  • Livelihood Diversification: A 2024 survey by the Development Intelligence Unit (DIU) found that 86% of farmers affected by climate change linked changes in their occupation to climate impact, with many turning to animal husbandry, small businesses, and other non-agricultural activities to stabilize income.
  • Awareness and Adaptation: Studies indicate that farmers increasingly recognize climate change impacts and are implementing adaptation measures like shifting planting dates and changing crop varieties. However, socio-economic constraints and limited resources often hinder effective adaptation. Factors like age, farming experience, innovativeness, environmental consciousness, and exposure to mass media positively influence farmers' perceptions of climate change.

Conclusion

The escalating impacts of climate change on agricultural production, manifested through reduced yields, water scarcity, increased pests, and economic losses, pose an existential threat to food security and rural livelihoods in India. Farmers, as primary stakeholders, are acutely aware of these changes, observing erratic weather patterns and adapting their practices, though often constrained by resources. The consensus among the public and the scientific community underscores the urgency for robust, integrated strategies. Moving forward, a concerted effort involving climate-smart agriculture, technological innovation, enhanced extension services, and supportive policies is crucial to build resilience, ensure sustainable agricultural growth, and secure the future of Indian farming.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Climate Change
Long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, primarily caused by human activities leading to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, affecting global ecosystems and socio-economic systems.
Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)
An approach that helps guide actions to transform agri-food systems towards green and climate-resilient practices, aiming to sustainably increase productivity and incomes, adapt and build resilience to climate change, and reduce/remove greenhouse gas emissions where possible.

Key Statistics

According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, agriculture, forestry, and other land use sectors contribute approximately 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2023).

Source: IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report (2023)

A recent DIU survey (June 2024) revealed that 40.9% of Indian farmers surveyed have faced drought, while 32.6% have suffered crop damage due to excessive rains.

Source: Development Intelligence Unit (DIU) Survey (2024)

Examples

Wheat Crop Damage in 2022

In March 2022, India experienced one of the driest and most intense heatwaves since 1901, causing wheat fields to shrivel and leading to fears of a 10% to 50% fall in yields. This eventually led the Indian government to announce a ban on wheat exports.

Shift in Farmer Occupations

Due to the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, many marginal farmers in India are diversifying their livelihoods by turning to animal husbandry, small businesses, and other non-agricultural activities to stabilize their income, as reported by a 2024 DIU survey.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does climate change impact food security in India?

Climate change affects food security by reducing crop yields, increasing price volatility for agricultural commodities, and lowering the nutritional quality of produce. Extreme weather events lead to crop losses, impacting farmer incomes and the availability of food, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities and potentially leading to hunger and malnutrition.

Topics Covered

EnvironmentAgricultureClimate ChangeAgricultural ProductionPublic Perception