"The global demographic landscape is evolving with rapid population growth in some places and rapid ageing in others." Elucidate with examples.

Understanding Global Demographic Divergence

The global demographic landscape is a mosaic of varying population dynamics, largely explained by the stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). The DTM describes the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as societies undergo economic and social development. Different regions are currently in different stages of this transition, leading to the observed patterns of rapid growth and rapid ageing.

Rapid Population Growth: Causes and Examples

Rapid population growth is typically observed in countries in Stages 2 and 3 of the Demographic Transition Model. In these stages, death rates decline significantly due to improved healthcare, sanitation, and nutrition, while birth rates remain high or decline at a slower pace.

Causes of Rapid Population Growth:

• High Fertility Rates: Many developing countries still have high total fertility rates (TFRs) due to factors like lower female education, limited access to family planning, cultural norms favoring large families, and high infant mortality rates prompting more births.
• Declining Mortality Rates: Advances in medicine and public health have drastically reduced death rates, especially infant and child mortality, leading to more people surviving to reproductive age and beyond.
• Population Momentum: Even if fertility rates begin to decline, a large cohort of young people entering their reproductive years can sustain population growth for several decades.
• Lack of Education and Economic Development: In regions with lower socio-economic development, families often rely on children for labor and old-age support, further incentivizing larger family sizes.

Examples of Rapid Population Growth:

• Sub-Saharan Africa: Countries like Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are experiencing some of the highest population growth rates globally. Niger, for instance, had a total fertility rate of 6 children per woman in 2023. The UN projects that many African nations will more than double their populations by 2100, with Nigeria projected to gain 527 million people.
• South Asia (e.g., Pakistan, parts of India): While India's overall fertility rate has fallen below replacement level, some regions within India and neighboring countries like Pakistan still exhibit high growth. Pakistan's population is projected to increase significantly by 2100.
• Middle East (e.g., Yemen, Syria): Some countries in the Middle East, such as Yemen and Syria, also show high fertility rates and rapid population growth, driven by various socio-economic and sometimes conflict-related factors.

Consequences of Rapid Population Growth:

• Strain on Resources: Increased demand for food, water, energy, and housing, leading to resource depletion and scarcity.
• Environmental Degradation: Higher waste generation, pollution, deforestation, and carbon emissions contribute to climate change and biodiversity loss.
• Economic Challenges: Can outpace job creation, leading to high unemployment, underemployment, and persistent poverty. It also strains infrastructure like transportation, healthcare, and education systems.
• Social Issues: Overcrowding, inadequate public services, potential for social unrest, and challenges in maintaining quality of life.

Rapid Ageing: Causes and Examples

Rapid population ageing is characteristic of countries in Stages 4 and potentially Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model. These nations have achieved low birth rates and low death rates, leading to an increasing proportion of older people in the population.

Causes of Rapid Ageing:

• Declining Fertility Rates: This is the primary driver. Many developed countries have TFRs significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, leading to fewer births and a smaller young generation. Factors include increased female education and workforce participation, urbanization, high cost of raising children, and widespread access to contraception.
• Increased Life Expectancy: Advances in healthcare, nutrition, and living standards mean people are living longer, healthier lives. Globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024.
• Ageing of Large Cohorts: The progression of large "baby-boomer" generations into older age groups significantly contributes to the elderly population share.

Examples of Rapid Ageing:

• Japan: Often cited as the world's oldest society, with nearly 30% of its population over 65 years. Its TFR is around 1.3 children per woman, and the population has been shrinking since 2010.
• European Countries: Italy, Germany, Portugal, and Greece have high proportions of elderly populations (e.g., Italy at 23% over 65). These nations face challenges to their social security and healthcare systems.
• East Asian Countries (e.g., South Korea, China): South Korea has one of the lowest fertility rates globally (below 1.0), leading to a rapidly ageing and projected shrinking population. China, due to its past one-child policy and ongoing low fertility, is also experiencing rapid ageing and entered an era of negative population growth in 2022. By 2050, roughly 40% of the populations of Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan are expected to be 65 and older.

Consequences of Rapid Ageing:

• Labor Force Shortages: A shrinking working-age population can lead to labor deficits, impacting economic productivity and innovation.
• Strain on Social Security and Healthcare Systems: A larger dependent elderly population puts immense pressure on pension funds, social welfare, and healthcare services, requiring higher expenditure.
• Economic Stagnation: Reduced consumption, innovation, and economic dynamism due to a smaller workforce and potentially higher taxes to support the elderly.
• Social and Cultural Shifts: Changes in family structures, caregiving responsibilities, and intergenerational support systems. There's a need to rethink the role of older persons in society.

The Indian Context: A Unique Transition

India presents a complex demographic picture, currently experiencing a "demographic dividend" due to its large working-age population. However, it is also undergoing a rapid demographic transition. India's Total Fertility Rate has dropped significantly from 3.5 in 2000 to 1.9 today, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. While India benefits from a young population (median age 28.8 years in 2025), certain states like Kerala and Goa are already showing signs of ageing. This indicates a future where India, too, will face significant challenges of population ageing, even as other parts of the country might still deal with pockets of higher growth. This necessitates a nuanced, state-specific approach to population policies.

Demographic Trend	Key Characteristics	Regions/Countries	Policy Implications
Rapid Population Growth	High birth rates, declining death rates, youthful population.	Sub-Saharan Africa (Niger, DRC), parts of South Asia (Pakistan), Middle East (Yemen).	Invest in education (especially for girls), family planning, healthcare, job creation, sustainable infrastructure.
Rapid Population Ageing	Low birth rates (below replacement), high life expectancy, increasing proportion of elderly.	East Asia (Japan, South Korea, China), Western Europe (Germany, Italy).	Reform pension and healthcare systems, promote active ageing, encourage immigration, incentivize childbirth, adapt labor markets.