UPSC MainsMANAGEMENT-PAPER-II202515 Marks
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Q7.

Comparing Effectiveness of Animal Feeds with Hypothesis Testing

2. (b) In a study to evaluate the effectiveness of two different animal feeds, researchers recorded the weight gains (in kilograms) of animals after fed each type of feed.

Feed A 45 48 47 50 46 49 47 48
Feed B 51 53 52 55 50 52 54 33
  • (i) If the two samples are considered independent, can we conclude that Feed B is more effective than Feed A at the 0.025 level of significance ?
  • (ii) Also examine the case if the same set of eight animals received both feeds, and test at the 0.01 level of significance. (Table enclosed)

How to Approach

The question requires applying hypothesis testing, specifically t-tests, to evaluate the effectiveness of two animal feeds under two different scenarios: independent samples and paired samples. The approach will involve calculating the t-statistic for each scenario, determining the critical t-value based on the given significance levels and degrees of freedom, and then comparing the calculated t-statistic with the critical value to draw a conclusion. It's crucial to clearly state the null and alternative hypotheses for each test.

Model Answer

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Introduction

Hypothesis testing is a fundamental statistical method used to make inferences about population parameters based on sample data. In biological and agricultural research, such as evaluating animal feeds, it provides a robust framework to determine if observed differences in outcomes (like weight gain) are statistically significant or merely due to random chance. This problem specifically delves into the application of t-tests, which are widely used when comparing means of two groups, particularly when sample sizes are small and the population standard deviation is unknown. Understanding the distinction between independent and paired samples is critical for selecting the appropriate t-test and drawing valid conclusions.

(i) Independent Samples t-test (Two-Sample t-test)

This scenario assumes that the two groups of animals (fed Feed A and Feed B) are distinct and unrelated. We will perform a two-sample t-test to compare their mean weight gains.

Step 1: State the Hypotheses

  • Null Hypothesis (H₀): There is no significant difference in the mean weight gain between Feed A and Feed B. (μ_A = μ_B)
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H₁): Feed B is more effective than Feed A, meaning the mean weight gain for Feed B is greater than Feed A. (μ_B > μ_A)
This is a one-tailed test because the question specifically asks if Feed B is *more* effective.

Step 2: Calculate Sample Statistics

We first list the data for each feed:

Feed A (n_A = 8): 45, 48, 47, 50, 46, 49, 47, 48

  • Mean (x̄_A) = (45+48+47+50+46+49+47+48) / 8 = 380 / 8 = 47.5 kg
  • Sum of squared deviations from the mean (Σ(x_i - x̄_A)²)
    • (45-47.5)² = 6.25
    • (48-47.5)² = 0.25
    • (47-47.5)² = 0.25
    • (50-47.5)² = 6.25
    • (46-47.5)² = 2.25
    • (49-47.5)² = 2.25
    • (47-47.5)² = 0.25
    • (48-47.5)² = 0.25
    • Sum = 18
  • Sample Variance (s²_A) = 18 / (8-1) = 18 / 7 ≈ 2.5714

Feed B (n_B = 8): 51, 53, 52, 55, 50, 52, 54, 33

  • Mean (x̄_B) = (51+53+52+55+50+52+54+33) / 8 = 390 / 8 = 48.75 kg
  • Sum of squared deviations from the mean (Σ(x_i - x̄_B)²)
    • (51-48.75)² = 5.0625
    • (53-48.75)² = 18.0625
    • (52-48.75)² = 10.5625
    • (55-48.75)² = 39.0625
    • (50-48.75)² = 1.5625
    • (52-48.75)² = 10.5625
    • (54-48.75)² = 27.5625
    • (33-48.75)² = 248.0625
    • Sum = 360.5
  • Sample Variance (s²_B) = 360.5 / (8-1) = 360.5 / 7 ≈ 51.5

Step 3: Calculate the Pooled Standard Deviation (s_p)

Since we assume equal variances (a common assumption for independent t-tests when sample sizes are equal), we calculate the pooled variance: s²_p = [ (n_A - 1)s²_A + (n_B - 1)s²_B ] / [ (n_A - 1) + (n_B - 1) ] s²_p = [ (7 * 2.5714) + (7 * 51.5) ] / [ 7 + 7 ] s²_p = [ 18 + 360.5 ] / 14 = 378.5 / 14 ≈ 27.0357 s_p = √27.0357 ≈ 5.1996 kg

Step 4: Calculate the t-statistic

t = (x̄_B - x̄_A) / [ s_p * √(1/n_A + 1/n_B) ] t = (48.75 - 47.5) / [ 5.1996 * √(1/8 + 1/8) ] t = 1.25 / [ 5.1996 * √(2/8) ] t = 1.25 / [ 5.1996 * √0.25 ] t = 1.25 / [ 5.1996 * 0.5 ] t = 1.25 / 2.5998 ≈ 0.4808

Step 5: Determine the Critical t-value

  • Degrees of Freedom (df) = n_A + n_B - 2 = 8 + 8 - 2 = 14
  • Level of Significance (α) = 0.025 (one-tailed)
From the t-distribution table, for df = 14 and α = 0.025 (one-tailed), the critical t-value is approximately 2.145.

Step 6: Make a Decision

Since the calculated t-statistic (0.4808) is less than the critical t-value (2.145), we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Conclusion for (i):

At the 0.025 level of significance, we cannot conclude that Feed B is more effective than Feed A when the two samples are considered independent. The observed difference in mean weight gain is not statistically significant and could be due to random chance.

(ii) Paired Samples t-test (Dependent Samples t-test)

This scenario assumes the same set of eight animals received both feeds. This means we are looking at the difference in weight gain for each animal, making the samples dependent (paired).

Step 1: State the Hypotheses

  • Null Hypothesis (H₀): There is no significant mean difference in weight gain between Feed A and Feed B. (μ_d = 0)
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H₁): There is a significant positive mean difference in weight gain for Feed B over Feed A. (μ_d > 0)
This is a one-tailed test.

Step 2: Calculate the Differences (d_i) and their Statistics

For each animal, we calculate d_i = Weight Gain (Feed B) - Weight Gain (Feed A).
Animal Feed A (x_A) Feed B (x_B) Difference (d = x_B - x_A)
1 45 51 6
2 48 53 5
3 47 52 5
4 50 55 5
5 46 50 4
6 49 52 3
7 47 54 7
8 48 33 -15

Now, calculate statistics for the differences (d):

  • Number of pairs (n) = 8
  • Mean of differences (d̄) = (6+5+5+5+4+3+7-15) / 8 = 20 / 8 = 2.5 kg
  • Sum of squared deviations from the mean difference (Σ(d_i - d̄)²)
    • (6-2.5)² = 12.25
    • (5-2.5)² = 6.25
    • (5-2.5)² = 6.25
    • (5-2.5)² = 6.25
    • (4-2.5)² = 2.25
    • (3-2.5)² = 0.25
    • (7-2.5)² = 20.25
    • (-15-2.5)² = (-17.5)² = 306.25
    • Sum = 360.25
  • Standard Deviation of differences (s_d) = √[ Σ(d_i - d̄)² / (n-1) ] = √[ 360.25 / 7 ] = √51.4643 ≈ 7.1739 kg

Step 3: Calculate the t-statistic for Paired Samples

t = d̄ / (s_d / √n) t = 2.5 / (7.1739 / √8) t = 2.5 / (7.1739 / 2.8284) t = 2.5 / 2.5364 ≈ 0.9857

Step 4: Determine the Critical t-value

  • Degrees of Freedom (df) = n - 1 = 8 - 1 = 7
  • Level of Significance (α) = 0.01 (one-tailed)
From the t-distribution table, for df = 7 and α = 0.01 (one-tailed), the critical t-value is approximately 2.998.

Step 5: Make a Decision

Since the calculated t-statistic (0.9857) is less than the critical t-value (2.998), we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Conclusion for (ii):

At the 0.01 level of significance, even when using a paired t-test, we cannot conclude that Feed B is more effective than Feed A. The mean difference in weight gain is not statistically significant. The substantial negative difference for one animal (-15 kg) significantly impacts the overall mean difference and standard deviation, reducing the t-statistic.

Summary of Differences Between Independent and Paired t-tests

The choice between an independent and a paired t-test hinges on the nature of the samples being compared. This distinction is crucial for accurate statistical inference.

Feature Independent Samples t-test Paired Samples t-test
Sample Relationship Two distinct, unrelated groups (e.g., Feed A given to one group, Feed B to another). Two measurements from the same group or matched pairs (e.g., same animals receive both feeds).
Data Structure Two sets of measurements, assumed to be independent. One set of differences calculated from paired observations.
Hypothesis Focus Compares the means of two independent populations (μ1 vs. μ2). Compares the mean of the differences (μd) to zero.
Degrees of Freedom n1 + n2 - 2 n - 1 (where n is the number of pairs)
Statistical Power Generally lower if pairing exists but is ignored. Higher when pairing is naturally present, as it controls for inter-subject variability.
Variance Assumption Often assumes equal population variances (pooled variance used). Focuses on the variance of the differences, not individual group variances.

Conclusion

The analysis reveals that neither the independent samples t-test nor the paired samples t-test supports the conclusion that Feed B is more effective than Feed A at the specified significance levels. In the independent samples scenario (0.025 level), the observed difference was too small relative to the variability within groups to be statistically significant. For the paired samples scenario (0.01 level), despite an overall positive mean difference, the high variability among the differences, particularly influenced by one outlying data point, prevented us from rejecting the null hypothesis. This underscores the importance of statistical rigor and outlier management in research, suggesting that more data or a re-evaluation of experimental conditions might be necessary to definitively assess the feeds' comparative effectiveness.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Hypothesis Testing
A statistical method used to make inferences about a population parameter based on sample data. It involves setting up a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis, collecting data, calculating a test statistic, and comparing it to a critical value or p-value to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis.
Level of Significance (α)
The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (Type I error). Common values are 0.05, 0.01, or 0.025, representing the threshold for statistical significance.

Key Statistics

A 2023 study on livestock feed efficiency by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) found that optimizing feed formulations could lead to a 10-15% increase in daily weight gain in cattle, significantly impacting agricultural productivity.

Source: Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), 2023 Annual Report (Illustrative)

Global animal feed production reached approximately 1.29 billion metric tons in 2023, with a significant portion dedicated to poultry and swine, highlighting the economic importance of feed effectiveness research. (Source: Alltech Global Feed Survey 2024, illustrative data point)

Source: Alltech Global Feed Survey 2024 (Illustrative)

Examples

Pharmaceutical Drug Testing

Before a new drug is approved, its efficacy is often tested using both independent and paired samples t-tests. For example, to compare a new drug against a placebo (independent samples), or to compare a patient's condition before and after taking a drug (paired samples).

Educational Intervention Study

A school might implement a new teaching method. To evaluate its effectiveness, they could compare the test scores of students in the new method class versus a traditional class (independent samples). Alternatively, they could compare the same students' test scores before and after the intervention (paired samples).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the main advantage of a paired t-test over an independent t-test?

A paired t-test is more powerful when a natural pairing exists, as it accounts for and removes the variability between subjects, isolating the effect of the treatment or intervention. This reduces the error variance and increases the likelihood of detecting a true difference if one exists.

What is a "one-tailed" versus "two-tailed" hypothesis test?

A one-tailed test is used when the alternative hypothesis specifies a direction (e.g., "greater than" or "less than"). A two-tailed test is used when the alternative hypothesis simply states that there is a difference, without specifying a direction (e.g., "not equal to"). The choice affects the critical value and the interpretation of results.

Topics Covered

StatisticsResearch MethodologyHypothesis TestingT-testsIndependent SamplesPaired SamplesStatistical Significance