The decision to conduct Population Census-2027 has reopened the debate on delimitation in India. Discuss its various aspects.

Understanding Delimitation in India

Delimitation is the process of fixing the limits or boundaries of territorial constituencies in a country with a legislative body. Its primary objective is to ensure that all constituencies have an approximately equal population, thus upholding the principle of "one vote, one value." This exercise also involves determining the number of seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) in these houses.

Constitutional Basis and Historical Context

• Article 82: Empowers Parliament to enact a Delimitation Act after every census for readjustment of Lok Sabha seats.
• Article 170: Relates to the readjustment of seats in the State Legislative Assembly after every census.
• Article 330 & 332: Pertain to the reservation of seats for SCs and STs in the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies, respectively, based on population.
• Delimitation Commissions: Have been set up four times (1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002) under corresponding Acts.
• 42nd Amendment Act, 1976: Froze the allocation of Lok Sabha seats and the division of each state into territorial constituencies until the year 2000, based on the 1971 Census, to encourage family planning.
• 84th Amendment Act, 2001: Extended this freeze until the first census conducted after 2026 (i.e., post-2026 Census). While the number of seats remains frozen, internal readjustments of constituency boundaries within states were permitted based on the 2001 Census.
• 87th Amendment Act, 2003: Allowed delimitation based on the 2001 census without changing the number of Lok Sabha seats allotted to each state.

Various Aspects of the Delimitation Debate

1. The North-South Divide and Federalism Concerns

The core of the delimitation debate lies in the disparate population growth rates between northern and southern states. Southern states, which have effectively implemented population control measures, fear a reduction in their political representation in Parliament if delimitation is based solely on the latest population figures. Conversely, northern states, with higher population growth, advocate for representation commensurate with their current demographics.

• Punishment for Performance: Southern states argue that they are being penalized for their successful family planning efforts and responsible governance, while states that have not controlled their population growth effectively might gain more seats.
• Shift in Political Power: If the number of Lok Sabha seats is increased and reallocated purely by population, northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan are projected to gain significantly, potentially increasing their political influence and tilting national policymaking towards the Hindi heartland. This could lead to an imbalance in the federal structure and weaken the voices of regional parties from the South.
• Economic Contribution vs. Representation: Southern states often highlight their disproportionately higher contribution to the national GDP and tax revenues compared to the share of parliamentary representation they might receive after delimitation.

2. Impact on Democratic Representation

The freeze on delimitation since 1976, while intended to promote population control, has led to significant discrepancies in the population per constituency, violating the "one vote, one value" principle. Some Lok Sabha MPs currently represent vastly different numbers of constituents.

• Malapportionment: The current system has resulted in constituencies with widely varying populations. For instance, an MP from Uttar Pradesh might represent 3 million people, while an MP from Tamil Nadu might represent 1.8 million.
• Urban Overcrowding: Rapid urbanization and internal migration have led to certain urban constituencies becoming vastly overpopulated, diluting the representation of urban voters.
• Women's Reservation Bill: The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, 2023, which provides for 33% reservation for women in Lok Sabha and State Assemblies, is linked to the delimitation exercise. Its implementation is contingent on the completion of the next census and subsequent delimitation.

3. Challenges and Practicalities of the 2027 Census

The delay in the 2021 Census due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and its subsequent scheduling for 2027, has added layers of complexity to the delimitation debate.

• Timeline Constraints: The census enumeration is expected to conclude in February 2027, with the reference date being March 1, 2027. Releasing the final population data and subsequently undertaking the extensive delimitation process, which involves passing a new Delimitation Act and constituting a Commission, is a time-consuming affair. It raises questions about whether this can be completed before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
• Caste Enumeration: The decision to conduct caste enumeration along with the population census-2027 could introduce additional political dimensions and complexities into the process.

4. Potential Solutions and Way Forward

Addressing the contentious aspects of delimitation requires a balanced approach that respects constitutional principles while ensuring equitable representation and preserving federal harmony.

• Increasing Total Seats: One proposed solution is to increase the total number of Lok Sabha seats, instead of reducing seats from any state. This would accommodate the population growth in northern states without penalizing southern states. Projections suggest that the Lok Sabha strength might need to increase to around 753-846 seats to correct demographic imbalances based on projected 2026 populations.
• Alternative Formulae: Exploring alternative formulae for seat allocation that consider not just population but also factors like economic contribution, human development indicators, and geographical area could be considered.
• Reforming Rajya Sabha: Some suggest reforming the Rajya Sabha to ensure equal representation for states, irrespective of population, to balance potential shifts in Lok Sabha representation.
• Maintaining 1971 Base with Adjustments: Another suggestion is to extend the freeze on the number of seats based on the 1971 Census for a further period (e.g., until 2056), while allowing for internal readjustments of boundaries within states.
• Dialogue and Consensus: A comprehensive dialogue involving all stakeholders, including state governments and political parties, is crucial to build consensus on the methodology and principles of the next delimitation exercise. The Union Home Minister has assured that the concerns of southern states will be addressed.

Aspect of Delimitation	Concerns/Arguments	Potential Impact (if based purely on 2027 Census)
Representation of Southern States	Fear of reduced parliamentary seats due to successful population control. Penalizes good governance.	Potential loss of 24-26 Lok Sabha seats for southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Representation of Northern States	Demand for increased seats commensurate with higher population growth. Upholds "one vote, one value."	Potential gain of 21-31 Lok Sabha seats for northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Federal Balance	Could shift political power towards the North, impacting national policymaking and resource allocation.	Increased dominance of Hindi-speaking states, potentially exacerbating North-South tensions.
"One Vote, One Value" Principle	Current malapportionment due to frozen seats violates this principle.	Redressal of malapportionment, but with significant regional disparities in representation.
Women's Reservation	Implementation is tied to delimitation. Delay in census/delimitation delays women's reservation.	Possible delay in the effective implementation of 33% reservation for women in legislatures.