Model Answer
0 min readIntroduction
Bangladesh's foreign policy has historically balanced relations between regional powers, primarily India, and emerging global players. However, recent geopolitical shifts and economic imperatives have led to a tangible increase in China's footprint in Dhaka. This growing influence, particularly in infrastructure development and strategic sectors, presents a complex challenge to India's traditional leverage in Bangladesh, which has long been considered a crucial neighbor within India's 'Neighborhood First' policy. The evolving dynamics are reshaping the South Asian geopolitical landscape, compelling India to reassess its engagement strategies to maintain its strategic interests.
China's Growing Footprint in Bangladesh
China's engagement with Bangladesh has significantly expanded over the past decade, driven by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Bangladesh's need for infrastructure development. This has resulted in a notable shift in power dynamics:
- Economic Investment: China is Bangladesh's largest trading partner and a major source of foreign direct investment. By FY 2024-25, Chinese investment in Bangladesh reached nearly $42 billion, with commitments for $2.1 billion in investments, loans, and grants in March 2025. Projects include the Padma Bridge, Karnaphuli Tunnel, and various power plants.
- Infrastructure Development: Chinese firms dominate Bangladesh's infrastructure sector, financing and constructing critical projects. Between 2016 and 2023, China completed 12 highways, 21 bridges, and 27 power and energy projects. This includes modernization efforts at Mongla Port (with an additional $400 million pledged in March 2025) and potential involvement in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project.
- Defense Cooperation: Bangladesh's military ties with China have grown substantially, with over 80% of its defense hardware, including submarines, sourced from China. The BNS Sheikh Hasina submarine base, built by China at a cost of $1.2 billion, became operational in March 2023.
Weakening of India's Leverage
This increased Chinese presence has indeed weakened India's traditional leverage in Dhaka due to several factors:
- Strategic Competition: China's "debt-trap diplomacy" model, while not universally applicable, creates dependencies that can be leveraged strategically. Beijing's promotion of infrastructure deals without attaching political conditions appeals to countries like Bangladesh seeking rapid development without external interference in domestic governance.
- Public Sentiment and Unresolved Issues: Anti-India sentiment among the Bangladeshi public has deepened due to unresolved water-sharing issues (e.g., Teesta River dispute), frequent border clashes, and a perception of Indian political meddling. Restrictive Indian visa policies have also hindered people-to-people ties.
- Diversification of Foreign Policy: Under the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus (since August 2024), Bangladesh appears to be broadening its foreign policy approach, moving away from an India-centric posture. Yunus's first official visit was to China in March 2025, underscoring this shift.
India's Efforts to Counterbalance
Despite these challenges, India continues to hold significant historical, cultural, and economic ties with Bangladesh and is actively working to maintain its influence:
- Connectivity Projects: India has invested heavily in connectivity projects through Bangladesh, vital for its landlocked northeastern states. Examples include the Akhaura-Agartala Cross-Border Rail Link and the Khulna-Mongla Port Rail Line, both inaugurated in November 2023.
- Development Assistance: India provides grant assistance and lines of credit for various development projects in Bangladesh, such as the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant (Unit II inaugurated in November 2023).
- Diplomatic Engagement: India continues high-level diplomatic engagement and emphasizes cultural exchanges and shared democratic values. However, diplomatic friction, such as India's termination of cargo trans-shipment facilities in response to perceived provocative remarks by Yunus, also occurs.
Conclusion
The growing Chinese footprint in Bangladesh, characterized by substantial economic investments, infrastructure development, and defense cooperation, has undeniably introduced new complexities into India-Bangladesh relations. While China offers significant financial and developmental opportunities, it also carries risks of debt dependency and strategic implications for Bangladesh's neutral stance. India, with its deep historical and cultural ties, must adopt a more nuanced and proactive strategy. This includes resolving long-standing bilateral issues like water sharing, scaling up joint infrastructure projects with favorable terms, and fostering people-to-people connections to counter the narrative of diminishing leverage and ensure regional stability.
Answer Length
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