"Trump's return to the White House is a jolt to push the European Union to invest in its own defence and economic and technological revival.” Comment.

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is widely perceived in Europe as a decisive moment, pushing the European Union to re-evaluate and accelerate its efforts towards greater strategic autonomy in defense, economics, and technology. This stems from the experience of his previous administration, which challenged fundamental tenets of transatlantic cooperation.

1. Impact on European Defence and Strategic Autonomy

Trump's past criticisms of European defense spending and his transactional approach to NATO have underscored the vulnerability of relying heavily on the United States for security. His renewed presidency would likely amplify these concerns, compelling the EU to bolster its collective defense capabilities.

• NATO Burden-Sharing: During his first term, Trump frequently criticized European NATO members for not meeting the 2% GDP defense spending target. A second term would likely intensify pressure, potentially even demanding a 5% GDP target, which many European nations consider unrealistic given their economic structures. This pressure, however, serves as a strong impetus for Europe to increase its defense outlays.
• Strengthening European Defence Initiatives: The EU has already embarked on initiatives to enhance its defense capabilities. A more isolationist US stance could accelerate these efforts, including:
  • European Defence Fund (EDF): Established in 2017, the EDF aims to foster collaborative defense research and development among member states. With a budget of nearly €8 billion for 2021-2027, it supports the development of innovative and interoperable defense technologies.
  • Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO): Launched in 2017, PESCO provides a framework for EU member states to deepen their defense cooperation through binding commitments and joint projects.
  • Strategic Compass: Adopted in 2022, the Strategic Compass outlines the EU's ambition to act as a security provider, including establishing a Rapid Deployment Capacity of up to 5,000 troops.
• Reduced Reliance on US Military Equipment: Historically, a significant portion of European military equipment has been sourced from the US. A Trump presidency could lead to protectionist measures impacting defense trade, forcing the EU to invest more in its own defense industrial base and promote "Buy European" policies for military procurement.

2. Economic Revival and Resilience

Trump's protectionist trade policies, characterized by tariffs and a preference for bilateral deals, pose significant economic challenges to the EU. A second term would likely reinforce the EU's focus on diversifying supply chains, strengthening domestic industries, and asserting its economic sovereignty.

• Trade Tariffs and Protectionism: During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, and threatened duties on European automobiles. A new administration could re-introduce or expand such measures, potentially triggering trade wars that harm both economies. This would push the EU to further diversify its trade partners and strengthen its internal market.
• Supply Chain Resilience: The COVID-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical tensions have already highlighted the fragility of global supply chains. A protectionist US would further incentivize the EU to reduce its dependence on external suppliers for critical goods and materials.
• Investment in Green and Digital Transitions: Initiatives like the European Green Deal and the Digital Decade targets aim to transform the EU economy. A more inward-looking US would compel the EU to accelerate these transitions, fostering domestic innovation and competitiveness in key future-oriented sectors.
• Global Gateway Initiative: Launched in 2021, the Global Gateway aims to mobilize up to €300 billion in investments globally (2021-2027), focusing on digital, energy, transport, health, education, and research. This initiative serves as the EU's alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative and helps build resilient global value chains, reducing dependence on any single partner.

3. Technological Sovereignty and Innovation

The pursuit of technological sovereignty has become a crucial aspect of the EU's strategic autonomy, driven by concerns over dependency on non-EU tech giants and the weaponization of technology. A renewed Trump presidency could intensify this drive.

• Semiconductor Independence: The global chip shortage exposed Europe's vulnerability in semiconductor manufacturing. The EU Chips Act, which entered into force in September 2023, is a direct response, aiming to double Europe's global market share in semiconductors to 20% by 2030 with a €43 billion investment. A less reliable US would further cement the urgency of this initiative.
• Critical Raw Materials: Access to critical raw materials (CRMs) is essential for the green and digital transitions, as well as defense. The EU Critical Raw Materials Act (entered into force May 2024) aims to secure a sustainable supply by strengthening domestic capacities for extraction (10%), processing (40%), and recycling (25%) of strategic raw materials by 2030, while limiting reliance on a single third country to no more than 65% for any strategic raw material.
• Digital Infrastructure and Data Governance: Concerns over the dominance of US tech companies and data privacy issues have fueled the EU's efforts to develop its own digital infrastructure and enforce strict data governance (e.g., GDPR). A potential shift in US regulatory approaches under a new administration might strengthen the EU's resolve to create a distinct European digital ecosystem.

In essence, while a Trump return could present immediate challenges to transatlantic relations, it simultaneously acts as a powerful external pressure, accelerating the EU's long-standing ambitions for greater self-reliance and strategic autonomy across critical sectors. This "jolt" would likely solidify the EU's resolve to forge its own path in a more multipolar and unpredictable world.