Introduction
The induction of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE into BRICS expands the bloc to approximately 45% of the global population, over 36% of world GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms—surpassing the G7's 29%—and nearly 30% of global crude oil production. This transition underscores a profound structural shift toward multipolarity and amplifies the voice of the Global South.
Driver of a Representative Multipolar Order
- Rebalancing Global Governance: Stalled quota and governance reforms within the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have cemented BRICS as a premier platform for emerging economies. It offers alternative development financing through the New Development Bank (NDB), which possesses $100 billion in authorized capital and operates free of political conditionalities.
- De-Risking Financial Architecture: Initiatives such as the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), BRICS Pay, and bilateral local currency settlement mechanisms serve to mitigate vulnerability to the weaponisation of SWIFT and overreliance on US dollar hegemony.
- Commodity and Chokepoint Leverage: By incorporating major hydrocarbon exporters and gatekeepers of pivotal maritime trade corridors—including the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz—the expanded bloc commands substantial influence over global energy and supply chains.
Internal Divergences Limiting Effectiveness
- Geopolitical Polarisation: A fundamental ideological cleavage persists between an 'anti-Western' revisionist axis (China, Russia, Iran) that seeks bloc confrontation, and 'non-Western' nations (India, Brazil, UAE, South Africa) that pursue strategic autonomy, multilateralism, and active engagement with Western partners.
- Bilateral and Regional Frictions: Enduring border disputes between India and China, alongside regional conflicts such as Egypt-Ethiopia tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), undermine institutional cohesion and consensus-based decision-making.
- Economic Asymmetry: China accounts for over 50% of the aggregate GDP of the expanded grouping, generating persistent trade imbalances for fellow members. Moreover, widespread reluctance to substitute dollar dominance with renminbi hegemony has stalled discussions on a common BRICS currency.
- Sanction Vulnerabilities and Financial Dependencies: The institutional vulnerability of the bloc was evidenced when the New Development Bank paused new operations in Russia to safeguard its international credit rating, highlighting an ongoing dependence on Western capital markets.
Conclusion
To realize its potential as an anchor of multipolarity, BRICS must resist bloc-based geopolitical confrontation. Its long-term effectiveness hinges on institutionalizing pragmatic functional cooperation in digital public infrastructure, local currency invoicing, and climate finance.