UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I201815 Marks
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Q9.

In the simple Keynesian model, if consumption and investment are both functions of income, how would the multiplier be affected?

How to Approach

This question requires a demonstration of understanding of the simple Keynesian model and the multiplier effect. The answer should begin by defining the multiplier and its basic formula. Then, it should explain how the multiplier is affected when both consumption and investment are functions of income, focusing on the marginal propensities to consume (MPC) and marginal propensities to invest (MPI). The answer should also discuss the implications of a change in these propensities on the overall multiplier value. A clear and concise explanation of the formula and its components is crucial.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The Keynesian model, developed by John Maynard Keynes, revolutionized macroeconomic thought by emphasizing the role of aggregate demand in determining output and employment. A central concept within this framework is the multiplier effect, which posits that an initial change in autonomous spending (like investment or government expenditure) leads to a larger change in national income. The magnitude of this effect is captured by the multiplier. Traditionally, the multiplier is calculated based on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). However, in a more realistic scenario, both consumption and investment depend on income, necessitating a modified calculation of the multiplier. This answer will explore how the multiplier is affected when both consumption and investment are functions of income.

The Simple Keynesian Multiplier: A Foundation

The basic Keynesian multiplier (k) is defined as the ratio of the change in national income (ΔY) to the change in autonomous expenditure (ΔA). It is calculated as:

k = 1 / (1 - MPC)

Where MPC represents the marginal propensity to consume – the fraction of an additional unit of income that is spent on consumption. This formula assumes that investment (I) is autonomous, meaning it doesn’t change with income.

Consumption and Investment as Functions of Income

In reality, investment is also influenced by income and economic conditions. Let's denote the marginal propensity to invest (MPI) as the fraction of an additional unit of income that is invested. When both consumption and investment are functions of income, the aggregate expenditure (AE) equation becomes:

AE = C + I + G

Where:

  • C = a + bY (Consumption function, 'a' is autonomous consumption, 'b' is MPC)
  • I = c + dY (Investment function, 'c' is autonomous investment, 'd' is MPI)
  • G = Government expenditure (assumed autonomous for simplicity)

Therefore, AE = (a + c + G) + (b + d)Y

Deriving the Multiplier with Both Consumption and Investment

To find the multiplier in this scenario, we need to determine the change in income (ΔY) resulting from a change in autonomous expenditure (ΔA). ΔA would include changes in autonomous consumption (a) and autonomous investment (c) and government expenditure (G). The equilibrium condition is Y = AE, so:

Y = (a + c + G) + (b + d)Y

Solving for Y, we get:

Y = (a + c + G) / (1 - (b + d))

The multiplier (k) is then:

k = 1 / (1 - (MPC + MPI)) or k = 1 / (1 - (b + d))

Impact on the Multiplier

The inclusion of the marginal propensity to invest (MPI) in the denominator significantly affects the multiplier. Here's how:

  • Reduced Multiplier Value: Since (b + d) will always be greater than 'b' (MPC), the denominator (1 - (b + d)) will be smaller than (1 - b). This results in a lower multiplier value compared to the simple Keynesian model where investment is assumed autonomous.
  • Importance of Investment: The multiplier’s size is now dependent on both the MPC and MPI. A higher MPI will further reduce the multiplier, indicating that a larger portion of increased income is saved or used for imports rather than being re-spent within the economy.
  • Real-World Relevance: This modified multiplier is more realistic as it acknowledges that investment decisions are not entirely independent of income levels. For example, as income rises, firms may invest in new capital goods to expand production.

Example

Consider a scenario where MPC = 0.8 and MPI = 0.2.

  • Simple Keynesian Multiplier: k = 1 / (1 - 0.8) = 5
  • Multiplier with both C & I: k = 1 / (1 - (0.8 + 0.2)) = 1 / (1 - 1) = Undefined

This example highlights that if MPC + MPI = 1, the multiplier becomes undefined, indicating that all additional income is either consumed or invested, leading to infinite expansion. In practice, this is unlikely due to factors like imports and taxes.

Scenario MPC MPI Multiplier (k)
Simple Keynesian 0.8 0 5
With Consumption & Investment 0.8 0.2 10
With Consumption & Investment 0.7 0.3 3.33

Conclusion

In conclusion, when both consumption and investment are functions of income, the Keynesian multiplier is affected by the inclusion of the marginal propensity to invest (MPI). The multiplier becomes 1 / (1 - (MPC + MPI)), generally resulting in a larger multiplier than the simple model, but also making it more sensitive to changes in investment behavior. Understanding this nuanced relationship is crucial for effective macroeconomic policy formulation, as it highlights the interconnectedness of consumption and investment in driving economic growth. Furthermore, recognizing the limitations of the model, such as the assumption of autonomous government spending, is essential for a comprehensive analysis.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Autonomous Expenditure
Expenditure that is independent of the level of national income. Examples include investment, government spending, and exports.
Marginal Propensity to Invest (MPI)
The proportion of an additional unit of income that is invested rather than saved or spent on consumption.

Key Statistics

India's Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP was 31% in FY23 (Provisional Estimates). This indicates the level of investment in the economy.

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, 2023

India's Investment Rate (Gross Capital Formation as % of GDP) declined from 34.3% in 2007-08 to 29.8% in 2013-14, contributing to a slowdown in economic growth.

Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reports, knowledge cutoff 2024

Examples

Impact of Infrastructure Investment

The Golden Quadrilateral highway project in India (launched in 1998) involved significant investment in infrastructure. This led to increased economic activity along the highway corridors, boosting consumption and further investment in related industries like logistics and tourism.

Frequently Asked Questions

What happens to the multiplier if imports increase?

An increase in imports reduces the multiplier effect. Imports represent a leakage from the circular flow of income, as money spent on imports does not contribute to domestic production. This increases the denominator in the multiplier formula, lowering its value.

Topics Covered

EconomyMacroeconomicsMultiplierConsumptionInvestment