UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I202415 Marks
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Q11.

Critically analyse classical theory of interest.

How to Approach

This question requires a detailed understanding of the classical theory of interest, its underlying assumptions, and its criticisms. The answer should begin by defining the classical theory and outlining its core principles, particularly the abstinence theory and the loanable funds theory. It should then critically analyze the theory, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses, and comparing it with modern theories of interest. A structured approach, covering historical context, key proponents, assumptions, criticisms, and contemporary relevance, is recommended.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The classical theory of interest, dominant in economic thought from the 18th to the mid-20th century, attempts to explain the determination of the rate of interest. It posits that interest is a reward for abstaining from present consumption, essentially a payment for delaying gratification. This theory, largely developed by economists like Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and John Stuart Mill, viewed interest as the price of loanable funds. However, with the advent of Keynesian economics and subsequent developments, the classical theory faced significant criticism. This answer will critically analyze the classical theory of interest, examining its core tenets, strengths, and limitations in the context of modern economic understanding.

Core Principles of the Classical Theory

The classical theory of interest rests on two primary components:

1. Abstinence Theory of Interest (Nassau Senior)

Nassau Senior argued that interest is the natural reward for abstaining from the enjoyment of present consumption. Individuals, by saving and lending their capital, forego immediate gratification. This sacrifice, according to Senior, deserves compensation in the form of interest. The rate of interest, therefore, reflects the degree of abstinence individuals are willing to undertake.

2. Loanable Funds Theory (Adam Smith & David Ricardo)

This theory explains how the rate of interest is determined by the supply and demand for loanable funds. The supply of loanable funds comes from savings, while the demand arises from borrowers – entrepreneurs seeking capital for investment, governments needing funds for expenditure, and consumers desiring loans. The intersection of these supply and demand curves determines the equilibrium rate of interest.

Factors affecting Supply of Loanable Funds:

  • Savings Habit: A higher propensity to save increases the supply.
  • Wealth: Greater wealth generally leads to higher savings.
  • Expectations: Expectations about future income and interest rates influence current savings decisions.

Factors affecting Demand for Loanable Funds:

  • Profitability of Investment: Higher expected profits encourage borrowing.
  • Government Borrowing: Government deficits increase demand.
  • Consumer Demand for Loans: Increased consumer credit demand raises borrowing.

Critical Analysis of the Classical Theory

Strengths of the Classical Theory

  • Simplicity and Clarity: The theory provides a relatively simple and intuitive explanation of interest rate determination.
  • Emphasis on Savings: It highlights the crucial role of savings in capital formation and economic growth.
  • Long-Run Perspective: The theory is more applicable in the long run, where savings and investment are key determinants of interest rates.

Weaknesses and Criticisms

  • Ignores the Role of Money Supply: The classical theory fails to adequately account for the influence of the money supply and monetary policy on interest rates. Keynes argued that changes in the money supply can significantly impact interest rates, independent of savings and investment.
  • Liquidity Preference Theory: Keynes’s Liquidity Preference Theory posits that interest is the reward for parting with liquidity. People prefer to hold money (liquidity) rather than invest it, and interest is the price needed to induce them to do so. This directly challenges the abstinence theory.
  • Assumptions of Full Employment: The classical theory assumes full employment, which is rarely the case in reality. In situations of unemployment, investment demand may be low, even at low interest rates, rendering the loanable funds theory ineffective.
  • Ignores Expectations: The theory doesn’t fully incorporate the role of expectations about future interest rates and economic conditions, which significantly influence investment decisions.
  • Real vs. Nominal Interest Rates: The classical theory doesn’t distinguish between real and nominal interest rates, failing to account for the impact of inflation.

Comparison with Modern Theories

Feature Classical Theory Keynesian Theory Loanable Funds Theory (Modern)
Determinant of Interest Supply & Demand for Loanable Funds, Abstinence Liquidity Preference Supply & Demand for Loanable Funds (including monetary factors)
Role of Money Minimal Central Significant, through monetary policy
Employment Level Assumes Full Employment Acknowledges Unemployment Considers employment levels
Time Horizon Long Run Short Run Both Short & Long Run

The modern loanable funds theory incorporates elements of both classical and Keynesian thought, recognizing the importance of both real factors (savings and investment) and monetary factors (money supply and monetary policy) in determining interest rates.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the classical theory of interest, while historically significant and offering valuable insights into the role of savings and investment, suffers from several limitations. Its neglect of the money supply, liquidity preference, and the impact of expectations renders it inadequate for explaining interest rate determination in the modern economy. While the core idea of supply and demand for loanable funds remains relevant, modern theories have refined and expanded upon it, incorporating monetary factors and acknowledging the complexities of a dynamic economic environment. The classical theory serves as a foundational stepping stone, but a comprehensive understanding of interest rates requires a more nuanced and integrated approach.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Abstinence
The voluntary act of foregoing present consumption in order to save and invest for future returns.
Liquidity Preference
The desire of individuals to hold money in liquid form rather than invest it, driven by transactional, precautionary, and speculative motives.

Key Statistics

India's Gross Savings Rate as a percentage of GDP was 30.2% in 2022-23 (Provisional Estimates).

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the repo rate by a cumulative 135 basis points between February 2020 and May 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Source: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reports (as of knowledge cutoff)

Examples

Impact of Demonetization on Interest Rates

The demonetization exercise in India in 2016 led to a temporary surge in liquidity in the banking system, which put downward pressure on interest rates. This illustrates the impact of money supply changes on interest rates, a factor largely ignored by the classical theory.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the classical theory still have any relevance today?

While not a complete explanation, the classical theory's emphasis on savings and investment as fundamental drivers of long-term economic growth remains relevant. It provides a useful starting point for understanding interest rate dynamics, but must be considered alongside modern theories.

Topics Covered

EconomyMacroeconomicsInterest Rate DeterminationClassical EconomicsFinancial Markets