UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I202415 Marks
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Q10.

Macroeconomic Equilibrium: Calculation & Impact

Calculate the equilibrium national income (Y) and interest rate (r) by using an appropriate macroeconomic model from the information given below : Aggregate saving function: s = −40+0.5(Y −T) +0.25r Tax function : T=20+0.2Y Investment function : I = 20-0.25r Money demand function : L = 0.4Y-0.5r Aggregate money supply : M = 40 (rupees in crore) How will the equilibrium values change when money supply is increased by ₹20 crore?

How to Approach

This question requires the application of the IS-LM model to determine equilibrium national income and interest rate. The approach involves first deriving the IS and LM equations from the given functions. Then, solving these equations simultaneously will yield the equilibrium values of Y and r. Finally, the impact of an increase in money supply on these equilibrium values needs to be analyzed by shifting the LM curve. The answer should demonstrate a clear understanding of the model's mechanics and its implications.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The IS-LM model, developed by John Hicks and Alvin Hansen, is a foundational macroeconomic tool used to analyze the relationship between interest rates, output, and the money market. It provides a framework for understanding how monetary and fiscal policies affect the economy. Determining the equilibrium national income and interest rate is crucial for policymakers aiming to stabilize the economy and achieve full employment. This question tests the candidate’s ability to apply this model to a given set of economic conditions and assess the impact of monetary policy changes.

Deriving the IS Equation

The IS curve represents the equilibrium in the goods market. We start with the equilibrium condition where Aggregate Saving (S) equals Investment (I): S = I.

Substituting the given functions:

-40 + 0.5(Y - T) + 0.25r = 20 - 0.25r

Substituting the tax function T = 20 + 0.2Y:

-40 + 0.5(Y - (20 + 0.2Y)) + 0.25r = 20 - 0.25r

-40 + 0.5(0.8Y - 20) + 0.25r = 20 - 0.25r

-40 + 0.4Y - 10 + 0.25r = 20 - 0.25r

0.4Y + 0.5r = 70

Therefore, the IS equation is: Y = 175 - 1.25r

Deriving the LM Equation

The LM curve represents the equilibrium in the money market. The equilibrium condition is where Money Demand (L) equals Money Supply (M): L = M.

Substituting the given functions:

0.4Y - 0.5r = 40

Therefore, the LM equation is: Y = 100 + 1.25r

Calculating Equilibrium National Income (Y) and Interest Rate (r)

To find the equilibrium, we solve the IS and LM equations simultaneously:

175 - 1.25r = 100 + 1.25r

75 = 2.5r

r = 30

Substituting r = 30 into either the IS or LM equation to find Y:

Y = 100 + 1.25(30) = 100 + 37.5 = 137.5

Therefore, the equilibrium national income (Y) is 137.5 crore rupees and the equilibrium interest rate (r) is 30%.

Impact of Increased Money Supply

When the money supply increases by ₹20 crore, the new money supply (M’) becomes 60 crore rupees. The LM equation shifts to the right:

0.4Y - 0.5r = 60

Therefore, the new LM equation is: Y = 150 + 1.25r

Solving the IS and new LM equations simultaneously:

175 - 1.25r = 150 + 1.25r

25 = 2.5r

r = 10

Substituting r = 10 into the IS equation:

Y = 175 - 1.25(10) = 175 - 12.5 = 162.5

Therefore, with the increased money supply, the new equilibrium national income (Y) is 162.5 crore rupees and the new equilibrium interest rate (r) is 10%.

The increase in money supply has led to a decrease in the interest rate and an increase in the national income, demonstrating the expansionary effect of monetary policy.

Conclusion

In conclusion, using the IS-LM model, we determined the initial equilibrium national income to be ₹137.5 crore and the interest rate to be 30%. An increase in the money supply by ₹20 crore resulted in a new equilibrium with a national income of ₹162.5 crore and an interest rate of 10%. This illustrates the inverse relationship between money supply and interest rates, and the positive relationship between interest rates and national income, as predicted by the model. The effectiveness of this monetary policy depends on the slope of the IS and LM curves, and other factors not considered in this simplified model.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

IS Curve
The IS curve represents all combinations of interest rates and output levels where the goods market is in equilibrium. It slopes downward, indicating an inverse relationship between interest rates and output.
LM Curve
The LM curve represents all combinations of interest rates and output levels where the money market is in equilibrium. It slopes upward, indicating a positive relationship between interest rates and output.

Key Statistics

India's GDP growth rate was 7.2% in FY23 (as per the National Statistical Office, Provisional Estimate of Annual National Income).

Source: National Statistical Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, 2023

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained a repo rate of 6.5% as of February 2024, influencing borrowing costs and economic activity.

Source: Reserve Bank of India, February 2024

Examples

Quantitative Easing (QE)

Following the 2008 financial crisis, central banks like the US Federal Reserve implemented QE, a form of monetary policy involving large-scale asset purchases to increase the money supply and lower interest rates, similar to the scenario analyzed in this question.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the limitations of the IS-LM model?

The IS-LM model is a simplified representation of the economy. It assumes closed economy, fixed prices, and doesn't fully account for expectations or financial market complexities. It also doesn't explicitly incorporate the role of the external sector.

Topics Covered

EconomyMacroeconomicsNational IncomeMonetary PolicyIS-LM Model